Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023

[ChannelThunder]

3 hours ago, Southern Storm said:

That's an amazing photo! 

There will always be something you wish you could change when photographing lightning, I always think I could have done a better job after the fact.

But we must always remember that we are dealing with lightning, in a country that doesn't experience that much of it, that in itself makes the photo you posted very special indeed!

Let's hope for something to appear later this week, more epic shots to add to the library 😜

Thank you!

I even went and made daft mistakes in Arizona last month too.

You can't help but notice the noise in these photos...all because I'd been messing with auto-ISO settings out of curiosity when taking photos in Bath earlier in the year, and I'd forgotten to turn them off again 🤦‍♂️ This meant that despite manually dialling in low ISOs, the camera was overriding them with 1600 due to the lack of light available. 

These have been de-noised, but it's still evident:

[UnderTheAnvil]

Can anybody tell me what the deal is with that low pressure in the bay of biscay? Why doesn't it want to move or do anything?

[alexisj9]

3 minutes ago, UnderTheAnvil said:

Can anybody tell me what the deal is with that low pressure in the bay of biscay? Why doesn't it want to move or do anything?

It's cut off so no steering from the jet, and our high won't let it move east.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

38 minutes ago, ChannelThunder said:

Thank you!

I even went and made daft mistakes in Arizona last month too.

You can't help but notice the noise in these photos...all because I'd been messing with auto-ISO settings out of curiosity when taking photos in Bath earlier in the year, and I'd forgotten to turn them off again 🤦‍♂️ This meant that despite manually dialling in low ISOs, the camera was overriding them with 1600 due to the lack of light available. 

These have been de-noised, but it's still evident:

Breathtaking shots mate

[WeatherArc]

Sunday continues to look interesting  on both the GFS and Euro.

The GFS has cape across the West and Northern parts of the country at around 1500-2000 j/kg

The big question right now is whether the cap will break in the afternoon, quite an american style setup! 

These soundings below taken from Northern England are pretty representative of the environment across most of Western Britain, medium-large instability with a cap stopping development, we will have to see how models resolve CIN and if they increase 3cape.

Something i really like about this setup though is the curving of the low level winds, with winds at the surface either being from the south east/south and winds at 500mb being from the south west. Could allow for some longer lived storms sheared storms if they can break the cap. Could be a hail/tor threat but way too far out to really know at the moment.

Im not sure why the GFS is showing 12-14 degree dewpoints across the East of the country, in this kind of setup i would expect broadly 16/17+ These lower dewpoints will hinder any development. This could well be just a GFS thing though.

Lapse rates looking very good. 

The Euro is showing an even more favorable environment with widely 17+ dewpoints and around 3000 j/kg of cape. 

 

CIN values are much lower than the GFS, allowing for the cap to break with storms developing around mid afternoon.  

Lapse rates worse than the GFS but still ok. 

The euro seems to believe the strongest storms will be on the Scottish/English border, where around 2000 j/kg of cape will combine with 35+ knots of DLS and 25+ knots of LLS.

In this scenario a supercell wouldn't be out of the question. 

 

The GEFS is quite confident right now in 500+ j/kg sbcape across the West and North. It just depends on if those low dewpoints across the East can be resolved. 

In terms of ensembles, the Euro now has 45 of its 50 members showing atleast 1000 j/kg. 

The GFS has 22 of its 30 members showing at least 1000 j/kg 

Sorry for the longer/bit of a rambling post when the event is still 130 hours out but wanted to talk about Sunday before i go back to college tomorrow and get swamped with work 🤮

Edited September 5 by WeatherArc

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

If it’s another northern event I’m seriously not interested. Had enough of that this year now. It’s gone past frustrating, it’s just pointless following something that will never produce results anywhere within reach.

A good write-up though. Sad I can’t get excited about it 😔

[Azazel]

Yeah looks like we are already out of the game! Not that we’ve ever been in the game at any point this summer 

[TJS1998Tom]

Hopefully some luck for Lincolnshire, been a fairly quiet Summer this year apart from a few rumbles at the beginning of Summer, evening storms at this time of year would be perfect with the nights drawing in earlier now

[ChannelThunder]

1 hour ago, Azazel said:

Yeah looks like we are already out of the game! Not that we’ve ever been in the game at any point this summer 

Far too early to say. The GFS has elevated storms down here on both Sat/Sunday nights. If the ECM agrees then it's looking promising at this stage at least. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Looks to me like some elevated storms are possible as early as tomorrow night.

Could be a light show in a couple of locations

[Eagle Eye]

6 hours ago, ChannelThunder said:

Thank you!

I even went and made daft mistakes in Arizona last month too.

You can't help but notice the noise in these photos...all because I'd been messing with auto-ISO settings out of curiosity when taking photos in Bath earlier in the year, and I'd forgotten to turn them off again 🤦‍♂️ This meant that despite manually dialling in low ISOs, the camera was overriding them with 1600 due to the lack of light available. 

These have been de-noised, but it's still evident:

Iso settings can be quite awkward on camera, I think I used 80 or something like that for this and use that for most so that close strikes are in detail. Though it depends on there being lots of CG's and detailed strikes. I also use my phone and sometimes my other camera to gets as many iso settings as possible.

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 hours ago, Azazel said:

Yeah looks like we are already out of the game! Not that we’ve ever been in the game at any point this summer 

I just lost the game 🤦‍♂️

[camturbo]

See estofex have issued a level 1 for parts of france and southwest England so could be a surprise or two for a few possibly 

[Liam Burge]

33 minutes ago, camturbo said:

See estofex have issued a level 1 for parts of france and southwest England so could be a surprise or two for a few possibly 

Seems like a very low chance of any thunderstorms popping up. To be honest, I'm really not sure why a level 1 has been issued, there's no rain forecast for any area in the South West at all for today. They mention "large hail" and "heavy precipitation" but I just don't see this happening.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

18 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:

Seems like a very low chance of any thunderstorms popping up. To be honest, I'm really not sure why a level 1 has been issued, there's no rain forecast for any area in the South West at all for today. They mention "large hail" and "heavy precipitation" but I just don't see this happening.

To be fair they sound quite sceptical about it.

We have a low chance of a low chance of possible storms. That’s a nice way of saying “not a chance mate”

[mike5900]

Is this unstable 

[alexisj9]

17 minutes ago, mike5900 said:

Is this unstable 

Don't know, second one could be a dispersing contrail. 

[Alderc 2.0]

Omg what’s going on in south west Yemen?

 

[CoventryWeather]

First bit of cloud moving northwards here, mainly a bit of mid level altocumulus and higher level cirrus, which is making the sun hazy. Probably the first I've seen this week apart from mist this morning. Sat outside for lunch and felt lovely. 

Chance of a few elevated showers or storms tonight, mainly the south west but some models and recently the UKV and Arome show the slight chance in the NW and perhaps the Midlands later in the night. Fair bit of uncertainty with regards on how much we see, but it's all part of a slow breakdown. 

Have a lovely afternoon! 

Edited September 6 by CoventryWeather

[ChannelThunder]

2 hours ago, mike5900 said:

Is this unstable 

Not really; not a lot of moisture showing up there in that tiny patch of high cloud.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Milky skies here but not got any of that stormy look to it

[Metwatch]

First of the high level cloudfest coming from the south this week, currently very high patches of cirrocumulus. 

Expecting it to stay mostly dry rest of this week here. 

[ANYWEATHER]

Some convection going on looking from Gigrin Farm to Rhayader 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Gotta be honest it’s looking good for the CS on satellite - stream of cloud right up from western France.

Nothing to get too excited about but worth keeping an eye on

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

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