Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023

[CoventryWeather]

Thunderstorm warning issued for tomorrow. Mention of large hail again, seems a decent possibility. 

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M

[*Stormforce~beka*]

3 hours ago, Sprites said:

London and the South East 

The story of this summer continues ...

[Dangerous55019]

Morning all.

I see that the U.K. Meto have just issued a yellow thunderstorm warning for Saturday… Tomorrow!

I haven’t really had much time to look into the details, but given this current heatwave, I wouldn’t be surprised by a thundery breakdown.

As always… Good luck to everyone with this.

[CoventryWeather]

Picked out some key frames from the latest UKV for tomorrow evening and overnight. Much better than the 3z with a greater area being affected by perhaps some lively storms.

But as always, there is significant uncertainty, a big difference from the 6z compared to the earlier 3z. 

[Ben Sainsbury]

10 hours ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Not too bad for us southerners on Saturday evening, models seem to be alternating between some strong surface-based storms and active elevated thunderstorms. Plenty of uncertainty, but plenty of positive solutions for this weekend.

For good measure this is how Saturday morning starts off vs Sunday morning. Sign of the potential severity to thunderstorms on Sunday. Wonder if the 0z run in the morning shows us a very rare hatched for hail > 5cm for the afternoon/evening?

And here it is, 2% chance of >5cm hail for Sunday afternoon...

[minus10]

Well working outside this morning and the atmosphere is 'soupy'...absolutely thick with humidity...its incredible and frustrating really that with all this humidity warnings are issued saying thunderstorms are UNLIKELY...i know everything has to come together for storms and obviously it isnt in many places but surely by Monday most places should have had some activity....just caught Bens post...98% chance of no hail and no storm ??

[TJS1998Tom]

Weather warning for storms tomorrow and I'm at work all day, classic

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, minus10 said:

Well working outside this morning and the atmosphere is 'soupy'...absolutely thick with humidity...its incredible and frustrating really that with all this humidity warnings are issued saying thunderstorms are UNLIKELY...i know everything has to come together for storms and obviously it isnt in many places but surely by Monday most places should have had some activity....just caught Bens post...98% chance of no hail and no storm ??

That is not what that chart means, it only talks of the possibility of hail as large as five cm, that's thatched area in the blue. The chance of actual storms breaking out is much higher.

In that specific chart there a greater than 50% chance of lightning in a given area, which in this case is 40km, so although you personally may not get a storm over your head, there's a 50% chance one will be as close as 40km away. And that is over much of the UK, further away from the main batch it's a 25% chance.

Edited September 8, 2023 by alexisj9

[ChezWeather]

Do we have any storm forecasters left? Sorely missing ConvectiveWx

[minus10]

20 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

That is not what that chart means, it only talks of the possibility of hail as large as five cm, that's thatched area in the blue. The chance of actual storms breaking out is much higher.

Yes i know that really, just having a moan about the fact that met warning giving storms as unlikely..while dripping at present in this soupy air...

[Ben Sainsbury]

8 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

Do we have any storm forecasters left? Sorely missing ConvectiveWx

You could say so, but today and this weekend is a forecasters nightmare. AROME 6z is worlds different to the 0z. The only agreement we have at the moment are isolated thunderstorms across the Midlands tomorrow evening, followed by elevated storms across the far SW tomorrow night. But even then, there are considerable uncertainties here.

Edited September 8, 2023 by Ben Sainsbury

[Jo-anne]

These are very confusing, bbc weather and weather bug very opposite, which is correct? Or vaguely right 

[Rufus Butterfield]

09 ukv could be a lively morning for me. Hoping for some decent action out of this warm spell, might well be the last opportunity of the year. 

[Sparkiee storm]

Already feels ripe out there, incredibly sticky, been a while since i felt this level of humidity. Also hotter tomorrow, if these storms pop off, some places could be looking at some locally very active storms i suspect, same on Sunday too. 

Edited September 8, 2023 by Sparkiee storm

[Rufus Butterfield]

12 minutes ago, Jo-anne said:

These are very confusing, bbc weather and weather bug very opposite, which is correct? Or vaguely right 

There’s basically a chance of isolated storms, but the chance is quite low for any particular spot. Sunday looks like it will probably be the better day.

[Typhoon John]

I remember hail all the time as a child living in NE England but now I don't think I've seen any for decades.

[ANYWEATHER]

I would be very careful as to computer simulations or weather apps for predicted storms. They are pretty useless in this situation , but there is potentially a lot of energy to tap into now and conditions are setting themselves up for some major thunderstorms.  It won't be just the heat we are talking about ,but some damaging storms which will make news headlines as well. But as always  with this situation some places won't get anything.... Tip......Keep looking at your radar ,the best tool you can have

Edited September 8, 2023 by ANYWEATHER

[Jo-anne]

8 minutes ago, Rufus Butterfield said:

There’s basically a chance of isolated storms, but the chance is quite low for any particular spot. Sunday looks like it will probably be the better day.

Thank you, with bbc giving a warning but having my area show sun all day then weather bug opposite not seen it that different before.

3 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

I would be very careful as to computer simulations or weather apps for predicted storms. They are pretty useless in this situation , but there is potentially a lot of energy to tap into now and conditions are setting themselves up for some major thunderstorms.  It won't be just the heat we are talking about ,but some damaging storms which will make news headlines as well. But as always  with this situation some places won't get anything.... Tip......Keep looking at your radar ,the best tool you can have

What's the best weather App radar?

[Wivenswold]

It looks like a nowcast situation, in these situations I'm glad I'm not a professional forecaster.  Based on apps and some websites, a whole swathe of people in the warning area will moan that "the forecast is always wrong" when they don't get an isolated storm. 

I'd recommend everyone spends 30 seconds reading Met Office forecasts every day or watch a full weather bulletin on their You Tube page rather than looking at symbols on apps.  

[Ben Sainsbury]

9 minutes ago, Wivenswold said:

It looks like a nowcast situation, in these situations I'm glad I'm not a professional forecaster.  Based on apps and some websites, a whole swathe of people in the warning area will moan that "the forecast is always wrong" when they don't get an isolated storm. 

I'd recommend everyone spends 30 seconds reading Met Office forecasts every day or watch a full weather bulletin on their You Tube page rather than looking at symbols on apps.  

Exactly this, in the latest Met O video on Twitter Aiden mentions "significant thunderstorms" but these will be incredibly isolated and I'm sure will catch a lot of people out this weekend if they're caught in one!

[ChezWeather]

Conditions today feel very similar to September 2016 which saw a big storm moving right up the Midlands into the Peak District 

[alexisj9]

8 minutes ago, Wivenswold said:

It looks like a nowcast situation, in these situations I'm glad I'm not a professional forecaster.  Based on apps and some websites, a whole swathe of people in the warning area will moan that "the forecast is always wrong" when they don't get an isolated storm. 

I'd recommend everyone spends 30 seconds reading Met Office forecasts every day or watch a full weather bulletin on their You Tube page rather than looking at symbols on apps.  

People will still moan, something is lost in translation, for some reason people think if they are in a warning area, they are garenteed a storm. It doesn't work like that, and never will. It just shows the possibility, that is all. 

[ANYWEATHER]

25 minutes ago, Jo-anne said:

Thank you, with bbc giving a warning but having my area show sun all day then weather bug opposite not seen it that different before.

What's the best weather App radar?

Netweather radar !

[Windblade]

On 07/09/2023 at 09:07, Azazel said:

Interesting.

 

Really hope we get to see something over the coming days, but I doubt it tbh - looks like a northern event if anything.

Yep, certainly is weird looking at those sunshine total maps but I'm telling you, at least here it's been sunny almost every single day since April.

 

Storms forecast for pretty much everywhere in the next few days...except here!  I think I'm gonna write this season off and look forward to next year!

Still, you never know, maybe the forecast will change slightly with storms from the west moving more eastwards and storms from the east moving more westward. One can only hope.

Edited September 8, 2023 by Windblade

[Wivenswold]

We've had some decent thunderstorms in October before so this may not be our last chance of the year. While the forecast is disappointing for the South East it could change which each model run now.