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Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023


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Posted
  • Location: Coventry, West Mids
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms, heat, sunshine, hail.
  • Location: Coventry, West Mids

    Thunderstorm warning issued for tomorrow. Mention of large hail again, seems a decent possibility. 

    WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

    Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. Choose your location to keep up to date with local weather warnings.

    M

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    Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
    3 hours ago, Sprites said:

    London and the South East 

    tumble-weed.thumb.gif.0b9c3deb6e3681ad78cd4f87d869ce85.gif

    The story of this summer continues ...

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    Posted
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Foggy autumn days are the best! Although I does enjoy a good thunderstorm.
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales

    Morning all. 🥵

    I see that the U.K. Meto have just issued a yellow thunderstorm warning for Saturday… Tomorrow!

    I haven’t really had much time to look into the details, but given this current heatwave, I wouldn’t be surprised by a thundery breakdown. 🌩️⛈️😁👍🏻🤞🏻

    As always… Good luck to everyone with this. 😊👍🏻

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry, West Mids
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms, heat, sunshine, hail.
  • Location: Coventry, West Mids

    Picked out some key frames from the latest UKV for tomorrow evening and overnight. Much better than the 3z with a greater area being affected by perhaps some lively storms.

    nmmukprate(1).thumb.png.399e76b60269234528759d8294220cd4.png

    nmmukprate(2).thumb.png.c3acd6a2c3672f3d1fe39698ef32ae67.png

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    nmmukprate(5).thumb.png.b016b2adc824b49e5443d7ae718ae437.png

    But as always, there is significant uncertainty, a big difference from the 6z compared to the earlier 3z. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
    10 hours ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

    Not too bad for us southerners on Saturday evening, models seem to be alternating between some strong surface-based storms and active elevated thunderstorms. Plenty of uncertainty, but plenty of positive solutions for this weekend.

    image.thumb.png.26b311e4c4008433f10797e5b9863c35.png

    For good measure this is how Saturday morning starts off vs Sunday morning. Sign of the potential severity to thunderstorms on Sunday. Wonder if the 0z run in the morning shows us a very rare hatched for hail > 5cm for the afternoon/evening?

    image.thumb.png.84600cd5bd4efe1b71db6a68d423295b.pngimage.thumb.png.9aa928ab54857c5d8d8de8ad2d25dbd3.png

    And here it is, 2% chance of >5cm hail for Sunday afternoon...

    image.thumb.png.5737a18437795956a8e64e322a9c3bf3.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

    Well working outside this morning and the atmosphere is 'soupy'...absolutely thick with humidity...its incredible and frustrating really that with all this humidity warnings are issued saying thunderstorms are UNLIKELY...i know everything has to come together for storms and obviously it isnt in many places but surely by Monday most places should have had some activity....just caught Bens post...98% chance of no hail and no storm ??

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    1 hour ago, minus10 said:

    Well working outside this morning and the atmosphere is 'soupy'...absolutely thick with humidity...its incredible and frustrating really that with all this humidity warnings are issued saying thunderstorms are UNLIKELY...i know everything has to come together for storms and obviously it isnt in many places but surely by Monday most places should have had some activity....just caught Bens post...98% chance of no hail and no storm ??

    That is not what that chart means, it only talks of the possibility of hail as large as five cm, that's thatched area in the blue. The chance of actual storms breaking out is much higher.

    In that specific chart there a greater than 50% chance of lightning in a given area, which in this case is 40km, so although you personally may not get a storm over your head, there's a 50% chance one will be as close as 40km away. And that is over much of the UK, further away from the main batch it's a 25% chance.

    Edited by alexisj9
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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
    20 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

    That is not what that chart means, it only talks of the possibility of hail as large as five cm, that's thatched area in the blue. The chance of actual storms breaking out is much higher.

    Yes i know that really, just having a moan about the fact that met warning giving storms as unlikely..while dripping at present in this soupy air...

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    Posted
  • Location: Stretton in N.E. Derbyshire
  • Location: Stretton in N.E. Derbyshire

    These are very confusing, bbc weather and weather bug very opposite, which is correct? Or vaguely right 

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    Posted
  • Location: Doncaster and Lincoln
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, anything interesting
  • Location: Doncaster and Lincoln

    09 ukv could be a lively morning for me. Hoping for some decent action out of this warm spell, might well be the last opportunity of the year. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Heatwaves, thunderstorms, cold/snowy spells.
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL

    Already feels ripe out there, incredibly sticky, been a while since i felt this level of humidity. Also hotter tomorrow, if these storms pop off, some places could be looking at some locally very active storms i suspect, same on Sunday too. 

    Edited by Sparkiee storm
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    Posted
  • Location: Doncaster and Lincoln
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, anything interesting
  • Location: Doncaster and Lincoln
    12 minutes ago, Jo-anne said:

    These are very confusing, bbc weather and weather bug very opposite, which is correct? Or vaguely right 

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    There’s basically a chance of isolated storms, but the chance is quite low for any particular spot. Sunday looks like it will probably be the better day.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bethnal Green
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold
  • Location: Bethnal Green

    I remember hail all the time as a child living in NE England but now I don't think I've seen any for decades.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hampton and Fairfield, Evesham , Worcestershire.
  • Weather Preferences: Love Weather, Hate the Spin and Lies to do with our Planets Climate.
  • Location: Hampton and Fairfield, Evesham , Worcestershire.

    I would be very careful as to computer simulations or weather apps for predicted storms. They are pretty useless in this situation , but there is potentially a lot of energy to tap into now and conditions are setting themselves up for some major thunderstorms.  It won't be just the heat we are talking about ,but some damaging storms which will make news headlines as well. But as always  with this situation some places won't get anything....😩 Tip......Keep looking at your radar ,the best tool you can have😊

    Edited by ANYWEATHER
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    Posted
  • Location: Stretton in N.E. Derbyshire
  • Location: Stretton in N.E. Derbyshire
    8 minutes ago, Rufus Butterfield said:

    There’s basically a chance of isolated storms, but the chance is quite low for any particular spot. Sunday looks like it will probably be the better day.

    Thank you, with bbc giving a warning but having my area show sun all day then weather bug opposite not seen it that different before.

    3 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

    I would be very careful as to computer simulations or weather apps for predicted storms. They are pretty useless in this situation , but there is potentially a lot of energy to tap into now and conditions are setting themselves up for some major thunderstorms.  It won't be just the heat we are talking about ,but some damaging storms which will make news headlines as well. But as always  with this situation some places won't get anything....😩 Tip......Keep looking at your radar ,the best tool you can have😊

    What's the best weather App radar?

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    Posted
  • Location: Wivenhoe, North East Essex, 2m asl
  • Location: Wivenhoe, North East Essex, 2m asl

    It looks like a nowcast situation, in these situations I'm glad I'm not a professional forecaster.  Based on apps and some websites, a whole swathe of people in the warning area will moan that "the forecast is always wrong" when they don't get an isolated storm. 

    I'd recommend everyone spends 30 seconds reading Met Office forecasts every day or watch a full weather bulletin on their You Tube page rather than looking at symbols on apps.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
    9 minutes ago, Wivenswold said:

    It looks like a nowcast situation, in these situations I'm glad I'm not a professional forecaster.  Based on apps and some websites, a whole swathe of people in the warning area will moan that "the forecast is always wrong" when they don't get an isolated storm. 

    I'd recommend everyone spends 30 seconds reading Met Office forecasts every day or watch a full weather bulletin on their You Tube page rather than looking at symbols on apps.  

    Exactly this, in the latest Met O video on Twitter Aiden mentions "significant thunderstorms" but these will be incredibly isolated and I'm sure will catch a lot of people out this weekend if they're caught in one!

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    Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m

    Conditions today feel very similar to September 2016 which saw a big storm moving right up the Midlands into the Peak District 

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    8 minutes ago, Wivenswold said:

    It looks like a nowcast situation, in these situations I'm glad I'm not a professional forecaster.  Based on apps and some websites, a whole swathe of people in the warning area will moan that "the forecast is always wrong" when they don't get an isolated storm. 

    I'd recommend everyone spends 30 seconds reading Met Office forecasts every day or watch a full weather bulletin on their You Tube page rather than looking at symbols on apps.  

    People will still moan, something is lost in translation, for some reason people think if they are in a warning area, they are garenteed a storm. It doesn't work like that, and never will. It just shows the possibility, that is all. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hampton and Fairfield, Evesham , Worcestershire.
  • Weather Preferences: Love Weather, Hate the Spin and Lies to do with our Planets Climate.
  • Location: Hampton and Fairfield, Evesham , Worcestershire.
    25 minutes ago, Jo-anne said:

    Thank you, with bbc giving a warning but having my area show sun all day then weather bug opposite not seen it that different before.

    What's the best weather App radar?

    Netweather radar !

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    Posted
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, rain, tornados, funnel clouds and the northern lights
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
    On 07/09/2023 at 09:07, Azazel said:

    Interesting.

     

    Really hope we get to see something over the coming days, but I doubt it tbh - looks like a northern event if anything.

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    Yep, certainly is weird looking at those sunshine total maps but I'm telling you, at least here it's been sunny almost every single day since April.

     

    Storms forecast for pretty much everywhere in the next few days...except here! 🙄 I think I'm gonna write this season off and look forward to next year!

    Still, you never know, maybe the forecast will change slightly with storms from the west moving more eastwards and storms from the east moving more westward. One can only hope.

    Edited by Windblade
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    Posted
  • Location: Wivenhoe, North East Essex, 2m asl
  • Location: Wivenhoe, North East Essex, 2m asl

    We've had some decent thunderstorms in October before so this may not be our last chance of the year. While the forecast is disappointing for the South East it could change which each model run now. 

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