Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023

[Windblade]

On 04/09/2023 at 13:37, Sunny76 said:

We didn’t have very good summer between early July until the middle part of August. 
 

Yes, it did improve as August went on, but July was appalling for its lack of sunshine and long sunny warm days.

For people who hate the heat, I think Summer 23 has been the ideal season for people who hate hot sunny weather.

The current weather this week looks to be the only good sustained period of warm sunny days since June for people who enjoy summery weather.

Not here. We have had nothing but sunshine non stop since early spring with only a few cloudy/showery days as the exception. 

We've had a couple of short heatwaves at the beginning of the summer but thankfully it's been nothing compared to previous years. I was hoping we'd largely gotton away with it this year, then I saw the forecast last week. 

[Convective]

Exceptionally high based on these storms this morning.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

23 minutes ago, Windblade said:

Not here. We have had nothing but sunshine non stop since early spring with only a few cloudy/showery days as the exception. 

We've had a couple of short heatwaves at the beginning of the summer but thankfully it's been nothing compared to previous years. I was hoping we'd largely gotton away with it this year, then I saw the forecast last week. 

You can’t be angry with warm or hot. This year will be a picnic compared with what’s to come.

Was reading about the Gulf Stream and potential for it to stop. If it does we will have a much cooler climate in the U.K. - but other parts of the world will become a furnace.

Either way it’s one extreme or another…

[Azazel]

35 minutes ago, Windblade said:

Not here. We have had nothing but sunshine non stop since early spring with only a few cloudy/showery days as the exception. 

We've had a couple of short heatwaves at the beginning of the summer but thankfully it's been nothing compared to previous years. I was hoping we'd largely gotton away with it this year, then I saw the forecast last week. 

Interesting.

 

Really hope we get to see something over the coming days, but I doubt it tbh - looks like a northern event if anything.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

2 hours ago, Azazel said:

Interesting.

 

Really hope we get to see something over the coming days, but I doubt it tbh - looks like a northern event if anything.

Tired of waiting for autumn to deliver. We will get our turn but it will be in the dying days of the hot season and I wouldn’t be surprised if all we have is a bunch of squally messy convective showers.

Total joke.

At the same time I’m quite enjoying the hot spells, but hate that we are always robbed of a concluding chapter

[TJS1998Tom]

4 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

You can’t be angry with warm or hot. This year will be a picnic compared with what’s to come.

Was reading about the Gulf Stream and potential for it to stop. If it does we will have a much cooler climate in the U.K. - but other parts of the world will become a furnace.

Either way it’s one extreme or another…

Makes me almost wonder if we'll head to a cooler climate if we'll start seeing colder winters than what we've been getting recently

[Ben Sainsbury]

4 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

You can’t be angry with warm or hot. This year will be a picnic compared with what’s to come.

Was reading about the Gulf Stream and potential for it to stop. If it does we will have a much cooler climate in the U.K. - but other parts of the world will become a furnace.

Either way it’s one extreme or another…

A lot of research suggests that if the Gulf Stream were to stop, then our weather would become more akin to Continental Europe. Winters colder and drier, Summer hotter and drier. Not sure how it would impact the thunderstorm front. Potentially, fewer thunderstorms but when they occur, likely to be more intense?

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

5 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

A lot of research suggests that if the Gulf Stream were to stop, then our weather would become more akin to Continental Europe. Winters colder and drier, Summer hotter and drier. Not sure how it would impact the thunderstorm front. Potentially, fewer thunderstorms but when they occur, likely to be more intense?

I think society would be collapsing all around us, so might be a lot harder and more expensive to chase?

Also it would limit the choice of snack at the service station

[NUT]

Ireland firing up a couple of really quite strong cells on radar there

[Metwatch]

 

27 minutes ago, NUT said:

Ireland firing up a couple of really quite strong cells on radar there

 

[Ben Sainsbury]

47 minutes ago, NUT said:

Ireland firing up a couple of really quite strong cells on radar there

Models not seemingly had the best grasp of this, can only be a positive sign going forward for the next few days. UKV now has strong surface-based storms developing on Saturday afternoon too.

[Azazel]

Metcheck.com - Storm Forecast Discussions - Weekly Storm Forecast - From 7 September 2023 - Expert Meteorologists Analyse Storm and Convective Forecasts For Countries Around The World.

WWW.METCHECK.COM

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Metcheck.com - Weekly Storm Forecast - From 7 September 2023 - Expert meteorologists take a weekly look at thunderstorm potential around the world with maps and in depth view of where will...

 

 

According to Metcheck - every single location in the country has a good chance of storms over the next 3-4 days EXCEPT for the central south which has nothing. Again.

 

What has changed meteorologically in recent years to make the central south one of the worst places outside of the north pole for thunderstorms? Might be an interesting case study for someone.

[Southern Storm]

9 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Metcheck.com - Storm Forecast Discussions - Weekly Storm Forecast - From 7 September 2023 - Expert Meteorologists Analyse Storm and Convective Forecasts For Countries Around The World.

WWW.METCHECK.COM

---

Metcheck.com - Weekly Storm Forecast - From 7 September 2023 - Expert meteorologists take a weekly look at thunderstorm potential around the world with maps and in depth view of where will...

 

 

According to Metcheck - every single location in the country has a good chance of storms over the next 3-4 days EXCEPT for the central south which has nothing. Again.

 

What has changed meteorologically in recent years to make the central south one of the worst places outside of the north pole for thunderstorms? Might be an interesting case study for someone.

What makes it worse is that if you run through the latter frames of the latest UKv, the showers/storms literally skirt around us, bar the very far southwest  

Par for the course as far as this year is concerned, but there is still time for things to improve, however, there is a voice saying I should know better than to cling into fale hope. 

As for less storms, it certainly feels like we are running way below what we'd usually get in any given year, but a remember thinking the same 10 or so years ago, only to be blessed with some reasonably decent storm seasons. Our time will come again I just hope it isn't a long wait.

[wimblettben]

We had distant lightning and faint rumbles of thunder here to the West last night around 12:00AM and 1:30AM.

It was probably the best visible strikes of forked lightning I have seen since we moved here. If someone had taken pictures they would have looked very good.

One of the forked bolts was a vibrant white colour and it looked much closer then it actually was because it was so big.

[pad199207]

Like a sauna here west of Dublin with the sky alive with convection, but nothing happening here, all just my north

[mountain shadow]

Torrential rain in North Down with lighning thrown in and Im out with no coat!

[minus10]

32 degrees, a hot sultry afternoon...just cant believe this is actually Autumn now..

....all we need ...like yesterday's hope.. is that this line of cloud to the south to develop into good storms to hit more central and eastern areas (with respect to those in the west) ...surely it must happen at some point ...

[Turquoise]

Ireland doing well again today. Don't recall them having such a thundery summer before.

[minus10]

Just now, Turquoise said:

Ireland doing well again today. Don't recall them having such a thundery summer before.

Year...storm fans in Ireland have had an amazing year...not jealous one bit..

[minus10]

Provisionally hottest day of year now according to met office...come on give us the storms...

 

[booferking]

Heavy rain and lightning non-stop for over 2 hrs here unreal most lightning ive seen in a quite a while.

[offerman]

5 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Tired of waiting for autumn to deliver. We will get our turn but it will be in the dying days of the hot season and I wouldn’t be surprised if all we have is a bunch of squally messy convective showers.

Total joke.

At the same time I’m quite enjoying the hot spells, but hate that we are always robbed of a concluding chapter

Could not have put haveCould not have put that better myself one thing I’ve noticed over the last few years is the distinct lack of a proper stormy Spanish plume. We haven’t had one for years, a proper one delivering electrical lightning in amongst the heat and humidity. I’m not talking about a cold front coming in from the west hits the warm, which often doesn’t really do that much, but more so proper storms flooding up Through France or developing in France and then giving us a brilliant light show. Most hot spells we half an hour just seem to fizzle out without any severe activity at least in my part of the world.

[Aiden2012]

Right that’s it I’m packing my bags and moving to Northern Ireland, they have had some cracking storms this year.

Edited September 7, 2023 by Aiden2012

[mac_]

Tremendous storms in N Ireland today. Frequent lightning and the thunder was constant at times with rumbles rolling into each other.

[A.J]

29 minutes ago, offerman said:

Could not have put haveCould not have put that better myself one thing I’ve noticed over the last few years is the distinct lack of a proper stormy Spanish plume. We haven’t had one for years, a proper one delivering electrical lightning in amongst the heat and humidity. I’m not talking about a cold front coming in from the west hits the warm, which often doesn’t really do that much, but more so proper storms flooding up Through France or developing in France and then giving us a brilliant light show. Most hot spells we half an hour just seem to fizzle out without any severe activity at least in my part of the world.

the answer is straight forward, I moved ooop north a few years ago from Wilts and took all the storms with me ! 

Man, we used to get some crackers breaking out over Salisbury Plain and the Marlborough Downs, some absolute monsters !