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Storms and Convective discussion- October 2023

Supacell

By Supacell
in Storms & Severe Weather

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Eagle Eye Maestro

Eagle Eye

Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
Posted

Today has the hallmarks of squally development along the airmass boundary. With fairly good non-trapped surface energy (only really near the surface), which should be released easily. Also with it mostly being surface energy, it latches onto the surface vorticity favourable for convergent development of multiple storms quickly into multi-cellular development. Shearing is good enough for this to make sense, though being stronger to the north, this occurs parallel to the cold airmass so the shearing is still relatively strong. May be a chance for some weak spin-up tornados in there as well. DCAPE isn't really enough for wind gusts to be too strong. 

xx_model-en-340-0_modswisseu_2023101300_15_4855_1356.thumb.png.a2bc7f19ce365858144a6c9520c74319.png

xx_model-en-340-0_modswisseu_2023101300_15_4855_1.thumb.png.bd581b24386f1ff7717bc92ed29d367e.pngxx_model-en-340-0_modswisseu_2023101300_15_4855_443.thumb.png.da06bb6e77578028bfc274373f7c8793.pngxx_model-en-340-0_modswisseu_2023101300_15_4855_244.thumb.png.c48153765c1e79d9bb688c9264c3e5ae.png

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ChannelThunder Accomplished

ChannelThunder

Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
Posted

There are some very late season plume storms showing for Weds night on ECM. One to watch. Last year showed what's still possible in October in that regard!

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matty40s Maestro

matty40s

Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
Posted

Ridiculously warm wind at present in Northants, 18.5c and 99% humidity. Something should kick off when the cold arrives.

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted
4 hours ago, matty40s said:

Ridiculously warm wind at present in Northants, 18.5c and 99% humidity. Something should kick off when the cold arrives.

20c here.
Windy as hell. It did brighten up for a bit but back to grey skies.
Not sure if we will see a storm today or not. Just doesn't feel like it.

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Eagle Eye Maestro

Eagle Eye

Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
Posted
Just now, Azazel said:

Is that hints of a squall I see developing north west of Malborough

Yes. First developments of stretched cells. Should continue to upscale along the PV lobe. 

Screenshot_20231013_141215.thumb.jpg.e3f3306296df7f7a5f2c29c14bffaab6.jpg

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*Stormforce~beka* Maestro

*Stormforce~beka*

Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
Posted
6 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Is that hints of a squall I see developing north west of Malborough

Just in time for school run no doubt ... Just what I need ...

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

image.thumb.png.c9e815de0479fc8d45086b52329e3580.png
 

TORROsocialmedia.png

favicon.ico The Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (TORRO)

WWW.TORRO.ORG.UK
TORRO is a privately-supported research body specialising in severe convective weather in Britain and Ireland

 

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Sprites Seasoned

Sprites

Posted
  • Location: South East UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/squalls/hoar-frost/mist
  • Location: South East UK
Posted

6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn Lightning & Thunderstorms - United Kingdom, England, Scotland, Wales, Ireland

WWW.BLITZORTUNG.ORG
Blitzortung.org provides lightning and thunderstorm information in real-time on maps for USA, United Kingdom, Australia, new Zealand, Europa, Africa, Asia and other Countries.

 

 

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Eagle Eye Maestro

Eagle Eye

Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
Posted

Immideate area to watch for potential spin ups.  The join between the advanced linear segment and slower segment may have enough inflow to force some surface rotation with stretched vorticity along the joint (stretched streamwise) but I don't really think it's enough. 

Screenshot_20231013_171828.thumb.jpg.c2c5c7afe3823846cba41b90741dbd62.jpg

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BenW Newbie

BenW

Posted
  • Location: Exmoor
  • Location: Exmoor
Posted

Can I make a suggestion to the Netweather team? When you issue a storm forecast or some other publication with a timescale, can you avoid using the time 00:00? So instead of 13/10/23 00:00 - 14/10/23 00:00 use 13/10/23 00:01 - 13/10/23 23:59. It will save a lot of confusion.

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matty40s Maestro

matty40s

Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
Posted
1 hour ago, BenW said:

Can I make a suggestion to the Netweather team? When you issue a storm forecast or some other publication with a timescale, can you avoid using the time 00:00? So instead of 13/10/23 00:00 - 14/10/23 00:00 use 13/10/23 00:01 - 13/10/23 23:59. It will save a lot of confusion.

I usually miss storms by weeks, not just 24 hours....

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sunnijim Seasoned

sunnijim

Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
Posted

Two airmaases colide over the UK.

= the usual damp squib.

Watch it all kick off on the continent later!

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Rufus Butterfield Community Regular

Rufus Butterfield

Posted
  • Location: Doncaster and Lincoln
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, anything interesting
  • Location: Doncaster and Lincoln
Posted

Interesting skies after the front passed over. Might be some mammatus in there as well

Could contain:

Could contain:

Could contain:

Could contain:

Could contain:

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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted
10 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Rained a bit in London. 

IMG_20231013_185852.thumb.jpg.6deab9f02b42c5d6b753d4280550b561.jpg

Rained a bit here too lol.

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Harry's House Aficionado

Harry's House

Posted
  • Location: Hamstreet Kent, recently of Pagham nr Bognor Regis
  • Location: Hamstreet Kent, recently of Pagham nr Bognor Regis
Posted
32 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Rained a bit here too lol.

Did here too, but now stars are out.

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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Harry's House said:

Did here too, but now stars are out.

Yep and it's finally nice and cool out side.

Edited by alexisj9
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sunnijim Seasoned

sunnijim

Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
Posted

Quite possibly a goodnight for the 2023 thunderstorm season.

Quite apt that it signs off with unrealised potential.

A couple of lightning strikes off the Kent coast this evening to show for it.

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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted
3 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

Quite possibly a goodnight for the 2023 thunderstorm season.

Quite apt that it signs off with unrealised potential.

A couple of lightning strikes off the Kent coast this evening to show for it.

Was watching those before the main rain came over. 

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matty40s Maestro

matty40s

Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
Posted

We had very weak mammatus forcing through after the front.

Could contain:

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Rufus Butterfield Community Regular

Rufus Butterfield

Posted
  • Location: Doncaster and Lincoln
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, anything interesting
  • Location: Doncaster and Lincoln
Posted

Large anvil and mammatus on the showers to the south east of Doncaster 

Could contain:

Could contain:

Could contain:

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Sparkiee storm Seasoned

Sparkiee storm

Posted
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Heatwaves, thunderstorms, cold/snowy spells.
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
Posted

Some of the showers looked threatening today but nothing more than a moderate shower. 

Could contain:

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