Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

[Mike Poole]

ECM evolution has gone a bit weird, T168, compared to the others:

Maybe can scrape a Scandi high out of this?  

Edited November 20, 2023 by Mike Poole

[Metwatch]

I do like the look of this! Somewhat similar to the ensemble members I posted a few posts up from the GFS with that low sliding down and more amplificaton of the high pressure to the north.

Edited November 20, 2023 by Metwatch

[sheikhy]

Well thats not bad from ecm so far!!!

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM evolution has gone a bit weird, T168, compared to the others:

Maybe can scape a Scandi high out of this?  

Happy to take weird at worse we live to fight another run or two on this saga…. And as for timber… remark… it was 100 wrong. The high climbed upwards and if it does topple at 198 it will be in far better place for coldies

[northwestsnow]

EC day 8

Cold...

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Happy to take weird at worse we live to fight another run or two on this saga…. And as for timber… remark… it was 100 wrong. The high climbed upwards and if it does topple at 198 it will be in far better place for coldies

Hey!  The timber remark was not from me!

T192, very interesting, exploring new ground this one…

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

EC day 8

Cold...

A bit of a mess isn't it..looks very blocked to me.

[TSNWK]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

Hey!  The timber remark was not from me!

T192, very interesting, exploring new ground this one…

Sorry.. indeed it was not you. Nice uppers would be chilly 

[SollyOlly]

Accepting that things are still in play and anything can happen yet...but GFS has managed to maintain its dignity in the face of criticism thus far...?! Still time for it all to come to naught, I guess. But we've had such slim pickings for such a long time, I'm beginning to get excited now...!

[adamgooner]

17 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

The ECM has the block yelling timberrrr as it sinks over the UK. Similar to the GEM & UKMO. 

No it doesn’t, you’re not interpreting the ecm correctly. You’re looking at GEM.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I'm liking this tbh..look at the difference with the corridor of heights in between Greenland  and the Arctic.. This certainly ain't a zonal onslaught and it appears to me to be correcting itself slowly after getting the evolution wrong in the first place. I'm waiting for a huge high to form so a few can come on and say it must be broke,as the teleconnections do not back it up!

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

I'm liking this tbh..look at the difference with the corridor of heights in between Greenland  and the Arctic.. This certainly ain't a zonal onslaught and it appears to me to be correcting itself slowly after getting the evolution wrong in the first place. I'm waiting for a huge high to form so a few can come on and say it must be broke,as the teleconnections do not back it up!

It’s the ECM, Matt, surely the world’s best model wouldn’t make a mistake like that!  

[northwestsnow]

EC is a beaut  

[Mike Poole]

ECM T216:

Flat as a pancake!

[TSNWK]

Surely bottom of the pack.. but let’s enjoy this ecm for now… was this option in any clusters this morning @Mike Poole

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Surely bottom of the pack.. but let’s enjoy this ecm for now… was this option in any clusters this morning @Mike Poole

My guess is a Greenland high forming at 240

[Mike Poole]

13 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Surely bottom of the pack.. but let’s enjoy this ecm for now… was this option in any clusters this morning @Mike Poole

Is it this one (T192-T240 period)?

Will be interesting to see where it sits on this evenings clusters…

Edited November 20, 2023 by Mike Poole

[Met4Cast]

19 minutes ago, Tidal Wave said:

ECMWF 12z 168hr chart shows why it's foolish to jump to premature conclusions.

An evolving set up with much to be decided.

The issue is it’s not moving forwards in time, we’re consistently looking at day 7+ for anything of real interest. 

It was the 24th, then 25th, now we’re looking at 26th and beyond..

[TSNWK]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

Is it this one (T192-T240 period)?

Thank you looks like it minorty option but not a completely Brain fart run… 

[CryoraptorA303]

2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

The issue is it’s not moving forwards in time, we’re consistently looking at day 7+ for anything of real interest. 

It was the 24th, then 25th, now we’re looking at 26th and beyond..

Phantom second 2022/23 blast syndrome...

[The Enforcer]

10 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

as the teleconnections do not back it up!

They are just forecasts, after all.

1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

The issue is it’s not moving forwards in time, we’re consistently looking at day 7+ for anything of real interest. 

It was the 24th, then 25th, now we’re looking at 26th and beyond..

Less of an issue in November with the entire winter season ahead.

[carinthian]

Whether the UK taps in to this or not, one things for sure most of Scandinavia well and truly in the freezer by the end of the week.

C

[booferking]

6 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

The issue is it’s not moving forwards in time, we’re consistently looking at day 7+ for anything of real interest. 

It was the 24th, then 25th, now we’re looking at 26th and beyond..

Friday-Saturday doesn't look to bad to me frost for many with wintry showers in the North 4 days away am I missing something here?

Edited November 20, 2023 by booferking

[CryoraptorA303]

1 minute ago, The Enforcer said:

They are just forecasts, after all.

Less of an issue in November with the entire winter season ahead.

Yes, it is only November/earliest December still. I know Christmas makes it feel like December is the peak of the winter, but there are two months of winter after it still...

[Mcconnor8]

6 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

The issue is it’s not moving forwards in time, we’re consistently looking at day 7+ for anything of real interest. 

It was the 24th, then 25th, now we’re looking at 26th and beyond..

It is only November and I don't really agree as this upcoming weekend isn't too far from what GFS forecast originally and wasn't pushed back at all, with more interesting evolutions looking like they may develop out of it after.