Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

[Mcconnor8]

Just now, January Snowstorm said:

The gfs is shaping up nicely for next weekend, much like Icon. Looks like a full on Easterly imminent 

Yep much greater heights over Greenland on the 12z runs with the high linking up to the Svalbard high putting us in a full on Easterly on some models 

[Bats32]

Great upgrades today so far

[Metwatch]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Higher ground - Even chilterns and Cotswolds could do well from this. Only a degree away from being  widespread snow away from coasts though! 

Unless evaporative cooling comes into play, to me surface temperatures just wouldn't be cold enough for it to stick, not much proper elevation in central and south eastern england either for anything overly significant. If the airmass ahead of the precipitation was colder than GFS modelled, which I am still hopeful for, that would be better.

[Met4Cast]

7 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

The JMA 6z had an over 1085 Mb high in Greenland which I think is around or maybe beats the all time world record haha

Pressure wont be that high, it's an artefact of the curving earth + Greenland mountains, modelling tends to "squeeze" things together when the reality would be different. 

Otheriwse though blocking is a touch stronger on this run.

Edited November 24, 2023 by Met4Cast

[swfc]

6 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

The JMA 6z had an over 1085 Mb high in Greenland which I think is around or maybe beats the all time world record haha

There not a based pressure reading. The topography and heighths are misleading

[Dennis]

notice 30nov friends 

details needed more 

[Ice Day]

GFS shaping up really nicely at 168, improvement against the 6z for sure

  

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

The gfs is shaping up nicely for next weekend, much like Icon. Looks like a full on Easterly imminent 

It looks like the 06z run where the lower heights will drop down again and cut off any decent easterly. If we’re deeply cold then that won’t matter  

what looks better is greeny heights which will push the jet further south 

[Metwatch]

GFS has more of a true greenland high, note the orange colours on the geopotential heights scale and the jet curving around the high.

[Big Gally]

[Shaunado]

11 minutes ago, That ECM said:

1070.

Very nice, though I gather that high pressure readings over the Greenland ice sheet needs to be taken with a pinch of salt?

850s seem to be heading in the right direction on eg ICON, and factor in that when 500hpa heights are lower in the atmosphere, then the 850hpa altitude will consequently be closer to the surface and the temp difference between 850hpas and 2m would be reduced.

[Dennis]

December warming stratosphere 

Edited November 24, 2023 by Dennis

[Howie]

Worry about 850hpa temps closer to the time, just glad the pattern is being sorted out 

[iowpompeylee]

6 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

The gfs is shaping up nicely for next weekend, much like Icon. Looks like a full on Easterly imminent 

Think the uk and parts of Europe will need a bra 

[Met4Cast]

The GFS 12z manages to produce a true Greenland high with low pressure swirling around the UK like a wet, sleety washing machine. No real dramas on the outputs so far, steady as we go.

 

[Spikey M]

It would normally be too early for a pure easterly to give us any real cold, but that cold pool over the continent is absolutely beautiful. Fingers crossed.

Edited November 24, 2023 by Spikey M

[Dennis]

MJO

 

[BartyHater]

Surely even the UK can't snatch defeat from the jaws of victory if things verifies close to this later next week.

[swfc]

5 minutes ago, Spikey M said:

It would normally be too early for a pure easterly to give us any real cold, but that cold pool over the continent is absolutely beautiful. Finger crossed.

Indeed its a good base and starting point come mid/late December

Edited November 24, 2023 by swfc

[January Snowstorm]

Uppers on ukmo are poor it must be said!

[IW Met]

6 minutes ago, iowpompeylee said:

Think the uk and parts of Europe will need a bra 

Down here we need that surface wind to be north of east, even if just by 10 degrees, otherwise the channel will keep surface temps a fair bit higher than just 10 miles north and west. Luckily the fetch is short which means any surface warmth from the channel will be shallow, so central and northwestern parts of the island are often much colder than eastern and southern parts in any potential east flow. 

 

Edited November 24, 2023 by IW Met

[Frosty.]

I must say I’m rather intrigued by the latest models overall..dare I say excited! ?..of course, this is the u k so it could easily all go Pete Tong as usual but I have a feeling it could soon become a very interesting end to autumn / start to winter for the majority from a cold perspective.. .. rather than the usual yawn fest mild carp!.. watch this space! ……. .. ps.. I’m not concerned about mild breakdowns yet!  

 

[Metwatch]

Meanwhile in eastern Europe, snow events are done properly.

[swfc]

1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

Uppers on ukmo are poor it must be said!

There never going to be great tbh late November without a quick track easterly

[The Northern Ramper]

3 minutes ago, BartyHater said:

Surely even the UK can't snatch defeat from the jaws of victory if things verifies close to this later next week.

If there’s a way for it to fail, the uk will find it.