Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

[alexisj9]

3 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

Imagine how crazy a 1881 blizzard redux would get in here, places on the South coast such as Portsmouth had 40 inches of level snow and drifts of 12 foot, I mean technically that still has to be possible in the perfect synoptic setup as temps weren't close to marginal then.

Still not artic though. Cold yes, lots of  snow yes artic, what was the temp, cause it sound like a possible channel low, that much snow on the south coast, so probably just below 0, with continental DP helping, not artic, just cold and snowy. 

[January Snowstorm]

13 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

So some will never be happy then, as that's never gonna happen. Imagen a minus 40 blizzard in the UK lol. Unless of course the next ice age happens in our life times.

Your quite right, but it is the model discussion thread and surely its productive to discuss what each run shows. The 12s in general are great, the 06z gfs is not. Would it be better if we just say the 06z is great and lie about it. The 06z is unlikely but like all other runs can neither be ruled in or out. I've been here a long time and I've seen many a trend picked up by the gfs and followed by the others a day later

I personally think next week won't deliver but will help hugely in lowering ground/sea temps for the next event

Edited November 25, 2023 by January Snowstorm

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

Your quite right, but it is the model discussion thread and surely its productive to discuss what each run shows. The 12s in general are great, the 06z gfs is not. Would it be better if we just say the 06z is great and lie about it. The 06z is unlikely but like all other runs can neither be ruled in or out. I've been here a long time and I've seen many a trend picked up by the gfs and followed by the others a day later

Yep, haven't said otherwise.

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

Your quite right, but it is the model discussion thread and surely its productive to discuss what each run shows. The 12s in general are great, the 06z gfs is not. Would it be better if we just say the 06z is great and lie about it. The 06z is unlikely but like all other runs can neither be ruled in or out. I've been here a long time and I've seen many a trend picked up by the gfs and followed by the others a day later

You're not alone.  And this 06z follows this mornings ukm ecm and gfs 00zs which although were still good has  trended towards a more  lumpy trough that was hanging around too long over us and preventing deep cold mid term...this was then followed by less heights into Greenland for the longer term.. 

[alexisj9]

6z from the SE coast, stays below zeto, opp is the black line. Doesn't show much snow, but I wouldn't expect it down here yet anyway.

[Liam Burge]

8 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Your quite right, but it is the model discussion thread and surely its productive to discuss what each run shows. The 12s in general are great, the 06z gfs is not. Would it be better if we just say the 06z is great and lie about it. The 06z is unlikely but like all other runs can neither be ruled in or out. I've been here a long time and I've seen many a trend picked up by the gfs and followed by the others a day later

I personally think next week won't deliver but will help hugely in lowering ground/sea temps for the next event

Yes but messages such as "this is a horror show" add literally nothing to the discussion.

[tight isobar]

23 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

Imagine how crazy a 1881 blizzard redux would get in here, places on the South coast such as Portsmouth had 40 inches of level snow and drifts of 12 foot, I mean technically that still has to be possible in the perfect synoptic setup as temps weren't close to marginal then.

There she is@blizzard of January 1881 that crippled middle England /wales southward..,

[Lukesluckybunch]

5 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

There she is@blizzard of January 1881 that crippled middle England /wales southward..,

Now that's a chart..and it's january!

[AdrianHull]

18 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

 

 

24 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

There she is@blizzard of January 1881 that crippled middle England /wales southward..,

Tiny bit of phasing going on here. Possibly cold rain . More runs needed... 

Edited November 25, 2023 by AdrianHull

[raul_sbd]

Meanwhile in Northeast of Poland

[Premiere Neige]

6 minutes ago, AdrianHull said:

 

Tiny bit of phasing going on here. Possibly cold rain . More runs needed... 

Not sure about the uppers...

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, Premiere Neige said:

Not sure about the uppers...

Dont forget the"downers"

[Cambrian]

0z EPS for days 1-7 shows the weekend high pressure getting squeezed out by low pressure systems from the northwest and northeast, that subsequently merge over the UK and Ireland on Monday, the one moving down the Norwegian Sea is supported by the dominant European trough and steers the merged low southeast into the Low Countries by Tuesday. 

Then another pair of lows engage next Thursday, one approaching from the southwest meeting with the other from the North Sea over southern parts of the UK before pulling away towards Germany. This is being modelled slightly further north than it was on yesterday’s 0z. 

   

There are some interesting developments as Thursday’s low approaches from the  southwest - a small low pressure system forms to the northwest of Ireland at 96-102h just before the phasing of the main lows.  This introduces more moisture from the northwest, enhancing the precipitation over Ireland and the southern UK during the phasing and in its wake.

All of great interest in the context of a week during which it grows steadily colder, T850s of -5 or thereabouts increasingly in the mix. 

[winterof79]

I wish to god that someone hadn't started to use the term "phasing" some on here will be asking for their roasties to be phased with their gravy on Christmas day

 

A coming together would have been nicer

Edited November 25, 2023 by winterof79

[Cambrian]

12 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

I wish to god that someone hadn't started to use the term "phasing" some on here will be asking for their roasties to be phased with their gravy on Christmas day

 

A coming together would have been nicer

It could just be an awkward phase we’re going through…

0z EPS @ 102h

 

…as we wait for things to come together.

[Blessed Weather]

8 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

I wish to god that someone hadn't started to use the term "phasing" some on here will be asking for their roasties to be phased with their gravy on Christmas day

 

A coming together would have been nicer

Hereby known as the Fujiwhara Effect:

The Fujiwhara effect, sometimes referred to as Fujiwara interaction or binary interaction.....
The effect is named after Sakuhei Fujiwhara, the Japanese meteorologist who initially described the effect in the 1920s. Binary interaction of smaller circulations can cause the development of a larger cyclone, or cause two cyclones to merge into one. Extratropical cyclones (mid and high latitude lows) typically engage in binary interaction when within 2,000 kilometres (1,200 mi) of one another........ 
......with significant acceleration occurring when the low-pressure areas are within 1,100 kilometres (680 mi) of one another. Interactions between their circulations at the 500 hPa level (18,000 feet above sea level) behave more predictably than their surface circulations. This most often results in a merging of the two low-pressure systems into a single extratropical cyclone, or can less commonly result in a mere change of direction of one or both of the cyclones. The precise results of such interactions depend on factors such as the size of the two cyclones, their distance from each other, and the prevailing atmospheric conditions around them.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

3 hours ago, AdrianHull said:

Had a request to add Stockholm to the list. It's Been accepted!

You need to add valium and toys and pram lol

[jmp223]

Fujiphasing

[TauntonRoss]

ECM running, see how it goes.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Once again a tight cluster of cold runs on thr 6z mogreps..several days back to back without any massive spread. I've also included Northern Ireland for good measure which stays cold,and I was looking perhaps for a hint of milder air trying to push in  from the West! And the Plymouth ens which also remain cold so at this stage no real push of milder air from the South either.

Ps...just noticed for the first time ever I've got a couple of insightful icons to my post...I've got my serious head on today folks...and that can only mean one thing? Poor forecasts

Edited November 25, 2023 by MATTWOLVES 3

[Mcconnor8]

12 minutes ago, TauntonRoss said:

ECM running, see how it goes.

ECM op only runs to +90 and it looked maybe a bit closer to GFS than the 0z but didn't really run far enough, ensembles and control run to +144 and will be out in 30 mins or so

[Metwatch]

Only just realised the other day it's now been a year since I rejoined the forums, made an account back in lockdown in 2020 but forgot about the forums until the end of last year, when I rejoined just as we were also heading into an interesting early winter period albeit starting a little later than this year.

Love reading all the contributions and also interacting with a lot of you over the last year here and in other threads. Have read some great and informative input from many of you. Here's for another and many more years to come!

 

Keeping this on topic, something I noticed yesterday and extreme temps posted it this morning, is the abnormal warmth over Greenland now, which only means one thing; WAA is being forced northwards and blocking high pressure is setting up over the next few days there. That should allow even colder air from the north east over Scandinavia to reach the UK from around next Thursday as all those lows clear away eastwards into the near continent.

Edited November 25, 2023 by Metwatch

[sheikhy]

13 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

ECM op only runs to +90 and it looked maybe a bit closer to GFS than the 0z but didn't really run far enough, ensembles and control run to +144 and will be out in 30 mins or so

No where near gfs!!!that would have gone on to show what it was showing on the 00z!!!!gfs has probably lost the plot once again!!!well i bloody hope it has!!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just nicked this from X...SSW risks ongoing...imagine this cold spell being followed by a large strat hit with even more significant wintry conditions to chase it! I mean what a good time it would be for the strat to fall next month. Lots going on it appears and its a watching brief for now.

[TSNWK]

7 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

No where near gfs!!!that would have gone on to show what it was showing on the 00z!!!!gfs has probably lost the plot once again!!!well i bloody hope it has!!

06z gfs and 06z ecm at 90.. I perfer ecm stronger push of Svalbard heights means phasing is further south and heading more south I suggest…

Edited November 25, 2023 by TSNWK