Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

[*Stormforce~beka*]

2 hours ago, CharlieBear9 said:

Exactly what I thought, but some seem to enjoy moaning about people more instead.

Sorry! My fault I started it 

[Bats32]

40C in 2022, wouldn't be surprised with an historic cold spell in 2024.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

38 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Extreme snowfall in southern Norway. 1m of snow! 

 

That's on the verge of scary!!

[CryoraptorA303]

10 minutes ago, Bats32 said:

40C in 2022, wouldn't be surprised with an historic cold spell in 2024.

If anything, wouldn't a historic cold spell be less likely?

Then again, quite a few historic summers also had notable cold spells in their respective winters. Maybe we'll have quite the cold spell in February, and then it'll do a 1947 and August 2024 will hit us with it's answer to Julys 2019 and 2022 The July kids have been running the game for a while now, August 2020 notwithstanding, so I'm sure an August not too far in the future will be wanting to show them how it's done

[raz.org.rain]

14 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

If anything, wouldn't a historic cold spell be less likely?

Then again, quite a few historic summers also had notable cold spells in their respective winters. Maybe we'll have quite the cold spell in February, and then it'll do a 1947 and August 2024 will hit us with it's answer to Julys 2019 and 2022 The July kids have been running the game for a while now, August 2020 notwithstanding, so I'm sure an August not too far in the future will be wanting to show them how it's done

2024 will throw out some record breaking events, that's for sure. I wouldn't be surprised at a more extreme repeat of summer 2022.

[CharlieBear9]

42 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Sorry! My fault I started it 

Didn't notice, just seems to be going on every day.

[Derecho]

Some comparisons and ramping of a 1963 repeat are emerging in the MAD thread. They'll be throwing their toys out of the pram even if it does turn out to be cold.

It may be a very good cold spell but some cannot control their emotions or set their expectations ridiculously high, maybe both. I'm just looking forward to some drier weather and something more seasonal. Anything else is a bonus in this day and age.

Edited January 3 by Derecho

[Gowon]

24 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

If anything, wouldn't a historic cold spell be less likely?

Then again, quite a few historic summers also had notable cold spells in their respective winters. Maybe we'll have quite the cold spell in February, and then it'll do a 1947 and August 2024 will hit us with it's answer to Julys 2019 and 2022 The July kids have been running the game for a while now, August 2020 notwithstanding, so I'm sure an August not too far in the future will be wanting to show them how it's done

You would think so, but Scandinavia has experienced it's coldest period of weather for 25 years. Some places have been 40c below for several days!

[raz.org.rain]

Just now, Derecho said:

Some comparisons and ramping of a 1963 repeat are emerging in the MAD thread. They'll be throwing their toys out of the pram even if it does turn out to be cold.

Some cannot control their emotions or set their expectations ridiculously high, maybe both. I'm just looking forward to some drier weather and something more seasonal.

Seen some ridiculous ramping up on Twitter, one post saying we should stock up on toilet paper and firewood. They just set themselves up for disappointment, although two weeks of frost and low single figures should be interesting I guess.

[Gowon]

5 hours ago, johncam said:

I have commented a few times and got shot down for saying what the charts are showing. The real cold is still at the end of the rainbow but from this weekend it will still be dry.

What do you call the cold starting Saturday night, then?

[CryoraptorA303]

23 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:

2024 will throw out some record breaking events, that's for sure. I wouldn't be surprised at a more extreme repeat of summer 2022.

Neither would I tbh. A lot of our bad summers have happened post-Nino, August 2003 coming to mind, although there are plenty of others such as 1995 and 1947. August/September 1906 was also post-Nino. July 2019 too.

14 minutes ago, Derecho said:

Some comparisons and ramping of a 1963 repeat are emerging in the MAD thread. They'll be throwing their toys out of the pram even if it does turn out to be cold.

Forget a litre, if we get a 1963 repeat I will drink 10 litres of gasoline, back to back, live on stream.

14 minutes ago, Gowon said:

You would think so, but Scandinavia has experienced it's coldest period of weather for 25 years. Some places have been 40c below for several days!

They were also experiencing an extremely cold snap in January 2016, the same winter in which we experienced our warmest December on record. Extreme cold events in Scandinavia don't have the best record in translating to cold events for us.

8 minutes ago, Gowon said:

What do you call the cold starting Saturday night, then?

Nothing much out the ordinary for the time of year LOL, nor anything to get much excited about. I'll believe it when I see it.

[Mapantz]

Always like a late night quarter moon appearing low in the sky.

[Summer18]

Just looking forward for some dry weather, honestly I can’t remember the last day it didn’t rain. It’s been appalling. 

[The Enforcer]

1 hour ago, CharlieBear9 said:

Didn't notice, just seems to be going on every day.

Hard not to when you offer an alternative perspective on the current modelling and a response is to suggest I should go to bed and cheer up. Don't they realise I do all my best work at night?

Edited January 4 by The Enforcer

[cold snap]

The amplification on this run want be as strong going to Greenland.  Traffic to the north has more pace 

[RJBingham]

Crikey, a lot of hyperventilating in the MAD thread, some folk will pass out if not careful    

[Bald Eagle]

Apparently and I quote 'we are  waiting for the all important day 9 run'

The mad thread.

[Polaris]

1 hour ago, Bald Eagle said:

Apparently and I quote 'we are  waiting for the all important day 9 run'

The mad thread.

I’ve also heard from a reliable source that this time tomorrow, there is a very high chance that the Day 10 chart will return

[Schnee]

Been wondering if it's going to be another ''curse of the 10 day models'' thing again.... will it always be 10 days out?

Still, i'm keeping an eye on the various discussions since I am a mobile engineer that works outdoors.

[stewfox]

My 10 day forecast in my location has a best minimum of 1c as the and the best max 4c. However usually hovering around 6c or 7c.

I just not seeing where the model hype is coming from.

A cool down and dry is forecast next 10 days temps marginally below average. 

 

 

 

Edited January 4 by stewfox

[Bald Eagle]

57 minutes ago, Polaris said:

I’ve also heard from a reliable source that this time tomorrow, there is a very high chance that the Day 10 chart will return

[Methuselah]

2 hours ago, Bald Eagle said:

Apparently and I quote 'we are  waiting for the all important day 9 run'

The mad thread.

We're also due a 'big ECM' and a 'crucial GFS'. 

[Methuselah]

3 hours ago, RJBingham said:

Crikey, a lot of hyperventilating in the MAD thread, some folk will pass out if not careful    

I bet @knocker is making his preparations early:     

[lawrenk]

13 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

We're also due a 'big ECM' and a 'crucial GFS'. 

Don’t forget the “cold locked in for weeks as no route back for the Atlantic” classic.

Usually the cue for the next run to show blow torch westerlies from the States to Siberia.

[Gowon]

27 minutes ago, lawrenk said:

Don’t forget the “cold locked in for weeks as no route back for the Atlantic” classic.

Usually the cue for the next run to show blow torch westerlies from the States to Siberia.