Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[Lukesluckybunch]

Another poor run from the ECM..the PV looking very organised and in its usual place!

[BartyHater]

Some serious poetic license is required this evening to paint a positive spin on the 12’s, in fact the big two should come with a ‘those coldies with a nervous disposition should look away now’ warning

At least now any fanciful talk of mild blip or brief mild spell can confidently be consigned to the dustbin, if fact we could well be in for quite a wait before something resembling cold re-emerges in even the semi reliable timeframe…model watching break incoming for me and we’re not even a week into Winter yet

[Big Gally]

Quote

 

[Purga]

Nice mid December Bartlett setting up. Yawn

[nick sussex]

Woeful ECM op .

The mini Scandi high tease of the 00hrs blown into the next galaxy by the PV blob of doom .

The GFS scrapes some interest towards day ten by trying to develop a high sufficiently north to develop some faux cold , yes that infamous term is being wheeled out for the first time this winter .

The blob of doom is of course terrifying to coldies and for good reason.

Those who’ve been around here for a while should at least take some solace in that I haven’t wheeled out the film analogies !

Thats normally a very bad sign !

 

[Met4Cast]

The Atlantic is back in full swing.

Gathering support for the trop vortex to be situated  across northern Greenland, this broadly in line with expectations for this period. As December progresses the strat vortex will begin weakening. Background drivers/teleconnections signalled this & they also signal a change towards something more blocked later in December. 

Steady as we go. Not seeing anything unexpected in this months evolution so far.

[Jason M]

7 minutes ago, Purga said:

Nice mid December Bartlett setting up. Yawn

Well, at day 10 the ECM, GFS and GDS control all look pretty much the same. In fact I thought for a moment that someone had cut and paste the ECM day 10 and labelled it as GFS Control. Not often I've see such identical charts 10 days away.

You can tell its nearly Christmas! Same old, same old 

[Scott Ingham]

5 hours ago, Catacol said:

It would be quite hard to paint a better anomaly picture than that for snow potential. If folks hoping for wintry conditions aren't happy with this run they never will be.

That Jan chart for January is as good as it gets if it’s snow your after! East based -NAO and low heights into most of Europe! I’ve never seen a January update like this in that past 20 years! I’ve seen it for February but January?! That’s the dream month for snow for me!

[ANYWEATHER]

18 minutes ago, BartyHater said:

Some serious poetic license is required this evening to paint a positive spin on the 12’s, in fact the big two should come with a ‘those coldies with a nervous disposition should look away now’ warning

At least now any fanciful talk of mild blip or brief mild spell can confidently be consigned to the dustbin, if fact we could well be in for quite a wait before something resembling cold re-emerges in even the semi reliable timeframe…model watching break incoming for me and we’re not even a week into Winter yet

The way you are painting the synoptics is a bit ott . If you take the gfs 12z at face value even at T+240 ,that would be surface cold ,very cold in fact ,probably very foggy as well with ice days for many...... and at least it would allow the ground to dry out from the high rainfalls this Autumn and Winter, and releave people with the worry of flooding....

[blizzard81]

Exeter update today is a bit deflating compared to the last few days. They now think mild and wet is still more favoured for the end of Dec and into the new year. They must have seen a change in the long term outlook over the last 24 hours for them to add that in. Not good. 

[Sweatyman]

6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Exeter update today is a bit deflating compared to the last few days. They now think mild and wet is still more favoured for the end of Dec and into the new year. They must have seen a change in the long term outlook over the last 24 hours for them to add that in. Not good. 

Hideous

[Northern Sky]

19 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

The Atlantic is back in full swing.

Gathering support for the trop vortex to be situated  across northern Greenland, this broadly in line with expectations for this period. As December progresses the strat vortex will begin weakening. Background drivers/teleconnections signalled this & they also signal a change towards something more blocked later in December. 

Steady as we go. Not seeing anything unexpected in this months evolution so far.

Yes this is something that has been signposted by yourself and others for some time, although perhaps arriving a little later than expected? 

I suppose the worry is that the possible return to opportunities for cold will be delayed too. Most people - me included - will be hoping for a cold Christmas. Should something like the 240hrs ECM chart verify on the 15th it looks a long way to cold from there?

[That ECM]

18 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Exeter update today is a bit deflating compared to the last few days. They now think mild and wet is still more favoured for the end of Dec and into the new year. They must have seen a change in the long term outlook over the last 24 hours for them to add that in. Not good. 

They said, very low chance, of resent cold spell. Quickly adds output to throw mods of scent. completely random chart.

[Jason T]

43 minutes ago, Purga said:

Nice mid December Bartlett setting up. Yawn

Excellent,  can mow the lawn and watch the tulips popping up. 

[Uncertainty]

35 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

That Jan chart for January is as good as it gets if it’s snow you’re after! East based -NAO and low heights into most of Europe! I’ve never seen a January update like this in that past 20 years! I’ve seen it for February but January?! That’s the dream month for snow for me!

Ec 46 giving the first sub seasonal hints that the January dream could become reality!

 

 

Edited December 5, 2023 by Uncertainty

[Had Worse]

1 minute ago, Uncertainty said:

Ec 46 giving the first sub seasonal hints that the January dream could become reality!

 

 

And... which dream was that...?

[Scott Ingham]

3 minutes ago, Uncertainty said:

Ec 46 giving the first sub seasonal hints that the January dream could become reality!

 

 

That’s delicious what an interesting start to winter 2023/24

[bluearmy]

[jellybaby1969]

Certainly not buying into the Atlantic all the way thru December brigade..just dont see where the energy is coming from. 

[bluearmy]

precip anoms 

1 minute ago, jellybaby1969 said:

Certainly not buying into the Atlantic all the way thru December brigade..just dont see where the energy is coming from. 

Week 2 ens are trending to take the Canadian vortex direction of energy towards Alaska rather than into the n Atlantic 

[mulzy]

Interesting weeks 5 and 6 on today’s ECMWF sub seasonal.  Let’s see if this the start of a trend.

[johncam]

47 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

That Jan chart for January is as good as it gets if it’s snow your after! East based -NAO and low heights into most of Europe! I’ve never seen a January update like this in that past 20 years! I’ve seen it for February but January?! That’s the dream month for snow for me!

Hi Scott 

How good are they armt getting it right though. We have seen this before and it came to nout

[Ali1977]

8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

They look excellent, possible a nice northerly heading into Xmas followed by a NE’ly!! 

[BartyHater]

40 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

The way you are painting the synoptics is a bit ott . If you take the gfs 12z at face value even at T+240 ,that would be surface cold ,very cold in fact ,probably very foggy as well with ice days for many...... and at least it would allow the ground to dry out from the high rainfalls this Autumn and Winter, and releave people with the worry of flooding....

‘If you take the GFS 240 at face value’.

I lurked for long enough before posting to see you suggest on numerous occasions that taking any 240hr chart at face value was pure folly….but even if you do, look where the GFS heads after that in FI, more towards the oven than the freezer for sure.

The ECM 240 is also a howler - it too suggests there’s very little hope of a return to cold until a least well into week 3 of Dec, so whilst I accept all the usual caveats associated with our cold chasing hobby apply, I’m not so sure my painting of the current synoptic are OTT to be fair.

 

 

[bluearmy]

Those of you determined to make predictions or adjust your weather mood based on week 2 of operationals are not being fair on yourselves 

week 1 = ops

week 2 = ens