Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[frosty ground]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS is dire . And the longer it takes for the trough to dig south the more likely that doesn’t happen .

Without any real forcing from the nw it’s a hard slog to get that south . 

The UKMO looks better at day 6 . Waiting for the day 7 which must surely look better than the GFS.

Not sure how you get to it’s dire, the solution is slower but also colder 

[booferking]

If you want a bad run try the gem some of the post in here lol gfs much better miles better.

[Drifter]

Unfortunately the spoiler low is now dropping south out of Greenland which will probably spin up and cut off the northerly / westerly flow. 

[TSNWK]

Just now, January Snowstorm said:

Not a bad place to be Christmas Eve. I think we'd all take a delay if Christmas was cold!

thing with delays is that it provides more scope for complications - on this run its the jet been further north I've just read.. I guess if it was easy 90% of us would not be here

[cheshire snow]

Christmas Eve snow for some.

[ribster]

9 minutes ago, weathercold said:

Over many parts it will be, apologies wasn’t being location specific. 

Will be? According to that frame, of that chart, of that run, of that day etc. 

[TSNWK]

looks lovely upstream - but we just dont seem to catch a break...

[feb1991blizzard]

trough digs too far west thats the problem

[Nick F]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Not sure how you get to it’s dire, the solution is slower but also colder 

Trouble is, the longer the cold air is delayed getting down across the UK, the more can go wrong with lows developing to the NW or W to quickly cut off the flow. We're talking 9 days away on GFS the cold air pushes across all the UK, that's a long way off in forecasting. so good chance it may change and be even more delayed or not arrive at all.

[nick sussex]

Just now, frosty ground said:

Not sure how you get to it’s dire, the solution is slower but also colder 

Take it from me . It’s utter pants . And models in particular the GFS has a bias to overplay the southern placement of the jet at longer range in these set ups.

You need to see some forcing to push the jet south . Still waiting for the UKMO hopefully that’s better at day 7.

 

[weathercold]

Just now, nick sussex said:

Take it from me . It’s utter pants . And models in particular the GFS has a bias to overplay the southern placement of the jet at longer range in these set ups.

You need to see some forcing to push the jet south . Still waiting for the UKMO hopefully that’s better at day 7.

 

Totally agree Nick, again not sure what many are seeing here. Looks utterly ghastly to me- you’re not getting any sustained wintry conditions from those charts, no chance.

[Lukesluckybunch]

UKMO 168 looks nothing special either..kinda flat

[TSNWK]

anyone order a west based  I'l get my coat and see the hammers instead I think..

 

Lets hope ECM brings some cheer

 

[Ice Day]

UKMO / GFS at 168 are somewhat different

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, TSNWK said:

anyone order a west based  I'l get my coat and see the hammers instead I think..

 

Lets hope ECM brings some cheer

 

All that blocking out West..does nothing for us this time..pretty gutring

[nick sussex]

Sadly the UKMO isn’t that great . The best that can be said is it disagrees with the GFS upstream and so the pattern isn’t set . 

[Drifter]

Just now, nick sussex said:

Sadly the UKMO isn’t that great . The best that can be said is it disagrees with the GFS upstream and so the pattern isn’t set . 

What exactly were you expecting though? These runs are just the usual variations on a theme that you’d expect at this range. 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, nick sussex said:

Sadly the UKMO isn’t that great . The best that can be said is it disagrees with the GFS upstream and so the pattern isn’t set . 

UKMO looks similar to GEM at 168.

GEM is not good either..

[AO-]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Take it from me . It’s utter pants . And models in particular the GFS has a bias to overplay the southern placement of the jet at longer range in these set ups.

You need to see some forcing to push the jet south . Still waiting for the UKMO hopefully that’s better at day 7.

 

And we need a through to establish that. That would pull the high west which provides the vortex to dive South. The lpb at this moment are not up to any WAA. 

[January Snowstorm]

Folks Christmas is still beyond 240hrs. I know these patterns can lock in but not always! The deep cold is very close to our Northwest. Sometimes Northern heights can pop up out of the blue.

[That ECM]

Just now, Drifter said:

What exactly were you expecting though? These runs are just the usual variations on a theme that you’d expect at this range. 

He loves cold and tells it like it is. it’s not great unfortunately.

[Catacol]

4 hours ago, nick sussex said:

I think the jury remains out on what to expect in the run up to Christmas . Realistically we aren’t going to see a freeze or widespread snow . 

Marginal conditions for most who aren’t on much higher ground especially further north .

I think this is accurate as of today. We remain in the holding zone between the cold earlier in the month and anticipated conditions conducive for cold towards the end. NWP is see-sawing around as you might expect, and it looks to me as though the timeline for the landing zone of any substantial cold has certainly shifted to after Xmas. It looks as though we have entered MJO phase 7 now - a very swift progression through phases 2-6 - and we await a concrete sense of what is going to happen as the wave pushes further into the west pacific. We have a strong pacific jet streak on the cards following a likely substantial +EAMT event. But again we await an understanding of just how big that streak will be, how high AAM will climb, and what the downstream response will be. And - will we see a SSW?

All part of a waiting game, and it is hard to wait when what we really want is knowledge NOW as to when these predicted impacts will kick in, and the extent of their effects. We have seen some better charts for cold - though that 00z storm from hell chart on GFS last night can certainly take a running jump because....snow or not....we don't want our roofs blown off. But we have yet to see charts showing proper high lat blocking even in the extended. A bit surprising maybe, but part of the waiting game. 

A degree of faith required. Playing our forecasting probability game, the chances of a high lat block in mid December looked extremely slim to anyone with a grasp of drivers when looking at the picture in mid to late November. But we will soon be entering a phase when those chances increase. We need to get a decent dice roll as we move towards Xmas and beyond. 

[booferking]

Ukmo is rubbish the gfs best until it blows up that low late on hopefully slides better if it does form.

[Lukesluckybunch]

At day 10 on the GEM there is outside chance of a scandi high developing..a link up with the mid Atlantic ridge and heights across Scandi on the rise..one too watch in future runs

[wightwootton]

Don't forget guys were still 8-11 days away!!! Anything can happen in the next 3 - 4 days that can change for the Xmas period!