Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[Kasim Awan]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

If the others look like ICON this place will be buzzing later ...

They should, 95% sure. 

[carinthian]

3 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Carinthian..

 Your mentions of a 'curveball' low crossing the north east of Scotland and moving down the North Sea and its impacts reminds me of one of the really horrible moments of the 20th century. Particularly to the East Coast and the Dutch coastline.

Not many people will be aware (or more probably - see it happen) that the event caused the greatest loss of life in the UK of the last century.

It has become known as the North Sea disaster.

That of late Jan 1953 when a low formed between Greenland and Iceland and ran SE towards the northern tip of Scotland. It then went for an explosive cyclogenesis (bomb in todays terms ), as it moved SSE down the east coast and in towards Holland.

Nearly 3000 people were killed in total on both sides of the Channel, with around 300 in the UK. Whilst not wishing to spread alarm, I do feel that we need to watch this situation very carefully over the next 6 days. It could be  a Christmas wrecker. 

I remember the night/evening well in North Nottinghamshire out delivering groceries with my father and being invited in for drinks, and at one house they had a tele (wow)  and were showing scenes of the conditions on the east coast with nearing 100 mph winds and  with us a raging northerly and occasional snow flurries.

A few links which may be of interest below -

 Great North Sea flood of 1953 remembered 70 years on - BBC News

 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lincolnshire-64414388 

The Met Office will be aware of this situation I hope. 

I have included the re-analysis for the event so that one can see the similarities.

 https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=30&month=1&hour=0&year=1953&map=7&region=&mode=2&type=ncep

PS Perhaps the Iberian high made the situation even worse by squeezing the pressure gradient.

In fact there were a lot of similarities world wide with the main vortex transferred over to Siberia. 

MIA

Thanks for that in depth post.

C

[CoventryWeather]

It'll be interesting to see whether that low slides SE - much better heights in the Atlantic compared to recent runs.

[MJB]

10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I like a happy ending 

A festive cold Xmas and white for some lucky ones 

[northwestsnow]

Right guys we are inching towards the semi reliable at 144 ,here is icon at 144 and we really want UKMO 144 to look similar

[BartyHater]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Right guys we are inching towards the semi reliable at 144 ,here is icon at 144 and we really want UKMO 144 to look similar

The 00 UKMO also pushed the Newfoundland Low out into the Atlantic. ICON has clearly picked up on the signal that it's unlikely now, so in theory UKMO 'should' follow suit....with the emphasis very much on should obviously!

[northwestsnow]

Typical ,the most awaited 12z runs this winter and meteociel crashes and we cant see GFS

[Harsh Climate]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Typical ,the most awaited 12z runs this winter and meteociel crashes and we cant see GFS

Always wetterzentrale for me, where it all began

Edited December 16, 2023 by Harsh Climate

[TauntonRoss]

The ICON is good as is the GFS, I'd still like to see the UKMO on board though to have more confidence, we've been here before so could easily flip back, I'd say its 50-50 for a wintry Christmas.

[Mike Poole]

UKMO looks better re the ESB low at T120 compared to 0z T132, otherwise pretty similar, pattern a little further east in vicinity of UK:

Edited December 16, 2023 by Mike Poole

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 minutes ago, TauntonRoss said:

The ICON is good as is the GFS, I'd still like to see the UKMO on board though to have more confidence, we've been here before so could easily flip back, I'd say its 50-50 for a wintry Christmas.

80/20 for North, it's the south that's iffy

[TauntonRoss]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

80/20 for North, it's the south that's iffy

Yeah Scotland looks nailed on even if it turned mild again, I'd like the UKMO then it would get a higher chance

[Ali1977]

UKMO at 144 - not brilliant but not bad - can it reload or is that it!! It’s much earlier than modelled off the JMA and GFS earlier. 

Edited December 16, 2023 by Ali1977

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

UKMO at 144 - not brilliant but not bad - can it reload or is that it!! It’s much earlier than modelled off the JMA and GFS earlier. 

Gem cutting off the low I think ... At 123

[Harsh Climate]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

UKMO at 144 - not brilliant but not bad - can it reload or is that it!! It’s much earlier than modelled off the JMA and GFS earlier. 

Looks like it will reload,not bad like you say but would have liked better

[northwestsnow]

Nope.

Ukmo looks a bust to me.

 

[Harsh Climate]

3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Gem cutting off the low I think ... At 123

GEM and JMA great, but they usually are in a scenario like this. I give them little credence 

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Nope.

Ukmo looks a bust to me.

 

Wouldn't go that far mate, looks a stalemate to me

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Nope.

Ukmo looks a bust to me.

 

Aye not keen on that, looks like it may go like 00Z EC, although the cold isn't really due until 24th/25th

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

GEM and JMA great, but they usually are in a scenario like this. I give them little credence 

Wouldn't go that far mate, looks a stalemate to me

It's nothing like ICON ..

Really deflated with that run

 

[Harsh Climate]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye not keen on that, looks like it may go like 00Z EC, although the cold isn't really due until 24th/25th

I think it could just be delaying the cold, I wouldn't call it bad. Just that it looks bad compared to the la la land JMA and GEM charts

[Ali1977]

GEM at 168, looks good. Not a fan of these charts compared to meteociels though!! 

[Vikos]

+120h
I prefer WX over meteociel 

 

Edited December 16, 2023 by Vikos

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

GEM at 168, looks good. Not a fan of these charts compared to meteociels though!! 

GEM looks ace.

UKMO is the opposite ..

[TSNWK]

Is gfs rolling on wz? 

[Ali1977]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

GEM looks ace.

UKMO is the opposite ..

V good by Xmas Eve - we need a good ECM!! Hopefully 168 on the UKMO reloads!!