Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[Notty]

17 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

GFS Control 12Z vs 18Z. Such disparity is amazing at just 138 hours.

All to play for then. Incredible at that time range really.

[Notty]

I really don’t know why we bother looking later than 4 days really. We should manage our own expectations. Speaking for myself of course

[Battleground Snow]

The 18z OP is a true outlier for  Xmas day, still lots of scatter too,

Getting close to the point of no return in terms of the low putting too much pressure on the ridge though.

Jma not changing it's tune for now.

[damianslaw]

Whilst poor for cold in the run up to christmas and the day itself, the GFS turns the cold tap on from 27th through to New Year with northerlies and then polar maritime air, so for longer term cold prospects those who want that will be happy with it.

Edited December 17, 2023 by damianslaw

[bluearmy]

This pub run is the first to show the level of warming up top that we’d need to see to consider a split possibility 

Need to see this gain traction although it’s had some momentum as a trend 

[ICE COLD]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

This pub run is the first to show the level of warming up top that we’d need to see to consider a split possibility 

Need to see this gain traction although it’s had some momentum as a trend 

Yep fairly strong warming on the 18z . Been watching this for the last several runs and that’s the strongest one so far I think . 

[Pixel]

37 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The pub run improves approaching new year 

of course it does 

[Ladyofthestorm]

18z  GFS a huge mild outlier.

I would say the ECM is moving towards the 12Z GFS solution. 

Hang fire .

 

Models all over the place 

[danm]

11 minutes ago, Notty said:

I really don’t know why we bother looking later than 4 days really. We should manage our own expectations. Speaking for myself of course

After countless times being burned over many, many years, I’ve learned that whilst I still pay attention to what’s being shown beyond 4 or 5 days ahead, I do not get in the slightest bit excited by cold and/or snowy charts at that range any longer. For all the advances in NWP, it is still the case that nothing is remotely guaranteed until we get to within about 96 hours. Too many small variables affect our chances here in the UK, any one of those can change at any point until 4 or so days away that makes the whole set up crash down like a pack of cards. 

It’s the price we pay for our geographical location! 

[Jason M]

10 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yep fairly strong warming on the 18z . Been watching this for the last several runs and that’s the strongest one so far I think . 

Always right out at the end though. Get it to day 8-9 then its worth thinking about.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

14 minutes ago, danm said:

After countless times being burned over many, many years, I’ve learned that whilst I still pay attention to what’s being shown beyond 4 or 5 days ahead, I do not get in the slightest bit excited by cold and/or snowy charts at that range any longer. For all the advances in NWP, it is still the case that nothing is remotely guaranteed until we get to within about 96 hours. Too many small variables affect our chances here in the UK, any one of those can change at any point until 4 or so days away that makes the whole set up crash down like a pack of cards. 

It’s the price we pay for our geographical location! 

I could have wrote this post except for me I start taking notice with a raised eyebrow from day 5. By day 3 I might start to be really interested. Often it's ripped away at day 2 so it's not until that has passed ok that I start to get excited. Which being this far south is never ...

13 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Always right out at the end though. Get it to day 8-9 then its worth thinking about.

Nope. Days 5-7

[Wold Topper]

54 minutes ago, danm said:

After countless times being burned over many, many years, I’ve learned that whilst I still pay attention to what’s being shown beyond 4 or 5 days ahead, I do not get in the slightest bit excited by cold and/or snowy charts at that range any longer. For all the advances in NWP, it is still the case that nothing is remotely guaranteed until we get to within about 96 hours. Too many small variables affect our chances here in the UK, any one of those can change at any point until 4 or so days away that makes the whole set up crash down like a pack of cards. 

It’s the price we pay for our geographical location! 

This ^^  in a nutshell, Well put danm

[Daniel*]

All eyes on in early 2024… it’s an interesting possibility which I believe is growing, with potential impacts right in the cold heart of winter. Unlike last winter and many others….

 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

No comment.

[Battleground Snow]

Low keeps just far enough west to not flatten the ridge, which allows the trough to drop just far enough south to allow the cold air to filter down.

Icon 144 Xmas eve

Icon 174 Xmas day

 

Edited December 18, 2023 by Battleground Snow

[Kentspur]

Never seen so much flip flopping from Icon 0z best run yet for Xmas completely different from 18z a few hours ago with a Northerly rather than a NWly so uppers sweep further south seasonal would be nice atleast down here! Will Icon set the tone? I doubt the models have reached agreement just yet lol

[Johnb88]

So much going on as the models swing attempting to pin down the weather over Christmas and still plenty of time for more changes.

The chance of a nice seasonal Christmas is on the cards followed by something far more wintery as we head through January. Plenty to be positive about for those of a cold persuasion

[Battleground Snow]

Decent improvement on the gfs, low is further west at 114, but it's going to be touch and go I think  on whether or not it flattens the ridge 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Laughable differences from the 18z to the 0z GFS at 138hrs quite frankly.

[Battleground Snow]

Ukmo at 144, not bad

[Mucka]

Decent Icon and GFS this morning but UKMO not as good as 12z although it would get some cold air across for Christmas

Edited December 18, 2023 by Mucka

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, Cheshire Freeze said:

Laughable differences from the 18z to the 0z GFS at 138hrs quite frankly.

It's amazing how the location of a small low pressure system 2500 miles from our shores can have such a big impact downstream 

[Kentspur]

Another swing back to cold I swear the 0z are usually the mildest runs in prospective cold snaps not this week it seems 0z GFS vs 18z huge difference once again

Edited December 18, 2023 by Kentspur

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

It's amazing how the location of a small low pressure system 2500 miles from our shores can have such a big impact downstream 

There’s still so much play in the pattern. For example, that low could prompt a ridge ahead of it which would promote more of a slower moving N’ly (ala ICON).

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

There’s still so much play in the pattern. For example, that low could prompt a ridge ahead of it which would promote more of a slower moving N’ly (ala ICON).

True, with the states being relatively mild next week there is no jet to carry the lows across the Atlantic, so they may just spin away almost stationary.

Quite an unusual setup for this time of year