Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[MATTWOLVES 3]

There seems to be a few here who are constantly looking to throw a spanner in the works for those who are searching for colder evolutions. I've even noticed some who seemed to like cold previously who are now playing it down relentlessly! Fair enough if you dislike cold then just say so....not as a means to wind others up...As far as I'm concerned whether you hate cold or love it,you should still summarise the conditions on what the NWP is showing. There are gonna be some on here that even with a BFTE scenario they will still play it down or be quick to point out its demise.

All I'm seeing is a growing trend from ensembles going the way of colder! I viewed just 10 0z ens and most of them looking favourable for Winter to bite! If it wasn't there then I wouldn't call it.

It is what it is..no point in dismissing things because you may have an agenda...call it for what it is. Be honest with yourselves and honest with other members on here.

[winterof79]

31 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Some very strange comments in here this morning, the narrative in here lately is that there's nothing showing on models, then when something does 'it won't verify anyway', what is the point reading the thread ever then??!!

Totally agree mate.Trolling without understanding output.

 

Some impressive cold building there.

[Liam Burge]

22 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

The GFS has been gradually backing away from a SSW in recent runs, particularly last nights 00z with a fairy substantial shift away, following yesterdays 12z EPS suite.

Tonights EC46 will certainly make for interesting viewing, I'd not be surprised to see this trend away from the idea too given more recent modelling. 

In stark contrast to this, EC has been gradually trending more TOWARDS an SSW.

 

Edited December 27, 2023 by Liam Burge

[Ali1977]

Not quite as good blocking signal on the 06z GEFS at day 10, but still not bad. Looking forward to seeing the 12z!! P1 looks nasty up north

 

latest mean - say not as good but maybe better over the high arctic 

Edited December 27, 2023 by Ali1977

[steveinsussex]

Can’t believe that the “nailed on” PV split, and the “95%” certainty of yesterday has now changed….

 

actually yes I can… do people never learn?!

[Methuselah]

13 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Totally agree mate.Trolling without understanding output.

 

Some impressive cold building there.

And, when the output is wrong, what then? 

[Andy8472]

2 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:

In stark contrast to this, EC has been gradually trending more TOWARDS an SSW.

 

True but the GFS never really went for it anyway, always lagging behind the ECM in terms of reversal, so maybe the GFS is just better at the strat this time round?

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

Can’t believe that the “nailed on” PV split, and the “95%” certainty of yesterday has now changed….

 

actually yes I can… do people never learn?!

Better to have loved and lost than to have never loved at all.. I for one will always go all in on a chase.  

[bluearmy]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Not quite as good blocking signal on the 06z GEFS at day 10, but still not bad. Looking forward to seeing the 12z!! P1 looks nasty up north

Yes the gefs were more enthusiastic about the height rise to our nw in the 9/12 day period than the eps or geps 

the 06z brings the model more in line with the other 2 and makes that upper ridge to the west a little more wedgy looking than a strong feature  (Could be a good movement to have the jet more likely to run below if we have managed to get temps dropped sufficiently as per the 06z op 

[Vikos]

28 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

The GFS has been gradually backing away from a SSW in recent runs, particularly last nights 00z with a fairy substantial shift away, following yesterdays 12z EPS suite.

Tonights EC46 will certainly make for interesting viewing, I'd not be surprised to see this trend away from the idea too given more recent modelling. 

Isn’t EC leading in Strat/Trop because of more vertical layers? 
also JMA is very strong I heard once…

[Chesil View]

Normal inter-run variation and waxing and waning as the nwp tries to get a handle on a pattern change. 

[Met4Cast]

7 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Isn’t EC leading in Strat/Trop because of more vertical layers? 
also JMA is very strong I heard once…

In theory, yes. But worth noting yesterdays 12z EPS backed away from a SSW too, the EC46 signalled it more strongly but that data is based on yesterdays 00z data.

There remains considerable uncertainty but the likelihood of a SSW has decreased for now, I'd say. Having said that, the vortex will become very weak right in the middle of winter, even if we don't see a technical SSW it doesn't mean we wont still see impacts.

[KyleHenry]

Many people are forgetting the previous lessons that we’ve learned throughout the years, regarding the process and the models reactions at the tropospheric level. 
 

1. The GFS sees the signal first and throws out huge cold charts in FI. 
2. For accuracy, the model viewer must switch to ECMWF. That time is now. Still look at the GFS for fun. It will realign approx 5th January.

 

what should we be expecting as of now?

Formation of -AO only and migration into Arctic circle

.

 

Any extreme cold weather for the UK wouldn’t be physically possible until after 10th January in terms of PV displacement/split. It’s just too early, yes there could be brief north westerlies in-between now and then.
 

Personally I’ll be looking at ECMWF from 2/3rd January.
Remember -AO first, then cold air into North America which allows HP blocking into Greenland. Then us.

 

[That ECM]

28 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Not quite as good blocking signal on the 06z GEFS at day 10, but still not bad. Looking forward to seeing the 12z!! P1 looks nasty up north

 

latest mean - say not as good but maybe better over the high arctic 

Agreed. didnt need to save the control.

Edited December 27, 2023 by That ECM

[Relativistic]

The definition of an SSW is somewhat arbitrary. Just because we might not get a technical reversal doesn't mean there won't be impacts that downwell.

[MJB]

Snap shots of the GEFS, plenty of interest for sure 

Control

Op

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Just now, MJB said:

Snap shots of the GEFS, plenty of interest for sure 

Control

Op

We need to see the main ops showing this from various models soon!

[The Enforcer]

57 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

And, when the output is wrong, what then? 

Well quite. The very low success rate of genuinely cold charts beyond T+120 means that I cannot view them with anything other than a mix of intense scepticism and suspicion.

Edited December 27, 2023 by The Enforcer

[Rob 79812010]

I'm quite optimistic for the chances of cold. Some of models keeping cold coming in from early Jan. Ties in with bbc forecast as well. However, those in the know have said many times that cold outcomes are more difficult to forecast with accuracy. At least there's a chance... 

[Lukesluckybunch]

31 minutes ago, MJB said:

Snap shots of the GEFS, plenty of interest for sure 

Control

Op

They are real good!what's your favourite ?MJB?

[MJB]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

They are real good!what's your favourite ?MJB?

I'm not really bothered Luke, as long as we get cold and snow laying on the ground they are all good mate.

 

Marcus 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

They are real good!what's your favourite ?MJB?

top one I think

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, MJB said:

I'm not really bothered Luke, as long as we get cold and snow laying on the ground they are all good mate.

 

Marcus 

Yea totally agree!

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

top one I think

That is some serious blocking on Pert 16

[MJB]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Yea totally agree!

The Control ended in superb fashion though, now if we can get this to T24 we are in business LOL 

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, MJB said:

The Control ended in superb fashion though, now if we can get this to T24 we are in business LOL 

That's an amazing chart..yea T24 might be pushing it..I will go with T48 haha