Midlands regional discussion - Winter 23/24

[WeatherArc]

12Z GFS a treat for many of us, fingers crossed. 

[CoventryWeather]

33 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

The amount of lMBYism with replies to my post when I posted that Met Office most likely scenario chart showing Midlands in the firing line for significant snow did give me a chuckle

Such a big southern bias in that forum - if you mention the midlands they instantly start saying why always in the north!!

Haven't the South East had a few good snow events the past couple of years? Seems a while since we had a decent one that lasted a few days+. 

Edited January 10 by CoventryWeather

[SollyOlly]

1 minute ago, CoventryWeather said:

Such a big southern bias in that forum - if you mention the midlands they instantly start saying why always in the north!!

Haven't the South East had a few good snow events the past couple of years? Seems a while since we had a decent one that lasted a few days+. 

Yes, completely agree. Unusually, perhaps, but the South/ South East have done better than us in very recent times, it feels. I'm from London originally (a loong time ago now!), and when I moved to the Midlands I was impressed that we often seemed to do well out of 'battleground' scenarios. But I haven't seen very much snow falling in recent times...so am hoping that we get something this time. Having said which, I'll be working away in Leeds next week...!

[Dancerwithwings]

Try windy.com….it’s shows the difference in model scenarios 

https://www.windy.com/-Rain-thunder-rain?gfs,rain,2024011712,53.801,-1.758,5

this is the GFS

[I remember Atlantic 252]

16 minutes ago, WeatherArc said:

12Z GFS a treat for many of us, fingers crossed. 

Aye, much prefer this to the 06Z, who wants the front in France

[Dancerwithwings]

The excitement is growing. In looking at the Snow risk, we could potentially be looking at prolonged snowfall from 9am next weds to 6am Thursday morning 

Snow Risk Forecast Maps For The UK - Netweather.tv

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

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Latest snow risk forecast maps for the UK - updated four times a day

 

[MattStoke]

From experience, fronts in this sort of setup often end up further south than initially modelled, and the majority of models take that front down into France so that would be my bet at the moment.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

From experience, fronts in this sort of setup often end up further south than initially modelled, and the majority of models take that front down into France so that would be my bet at the moment.

Aye, very likely was thinking the same, these runs will start to downgrade, we could be snow free

[MattStoke]

Just going to read the model thread from now on. No more commenting. Really annoying overly emotional people in there.

[Josh Rubio]

I think the MAD thread should be renamed to the SE thread. When snow is showing for Midlands and Northern areas they throw their toys out the pram but when a favourable chart appears for them the whole crowd cheers…

[Wadey]

Chilly

[Dancerwithwings]

21 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:

I think the MAD thread should be renamed to the SE thread. When snow is showing for Midlands and Northern areas they throw their toys out the pram but when a favourable chart appears for them the whole crowd cheers…

I’m long in the tooth on here, I’ve seen all sorts over the years believe me

I’ve learnt to take a step back and let the Tiswas carry on…

But I do genuinely feel for the more informative peeps that try to find a meaningful insight….but some people, if it isn’t going to snow in one’s back yard in 7 days….as you’ve seen and heard it…it’s toy throwing

Anyway, my thoughts are, we’ll see what pans out

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, Wadey said:

Chilly

basing it on snow cover from Wed's low! when realistically the low will slide into France, keeping us high and dry with frost/sun

Edited January 10 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Wadey]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

basing it on snow cover from Wed's low! when realistically the low will slide into France, keeping us high and dry with frost/sun

Either will do fine

[Dancerwithwings]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

basing it on snow cover from Wed's low! when realistically the low will slide into France, keeping us high and dry with frost/sun

What makes you know for sure “ realistically the low will slide into France” ???

[MattStoke]

GFS updating. We’ll know it’s snowy for the Midlands if it’s labelled as ‘terrible’ or good for the south if it’s labelled as ‘good for all’.

Hopefully in here I won’t get told off for pointing out the nonsense that goes on in that thread.

Edited January 10 by MattStoke

[Dancerwithwings]

18z GFS is still

 

[MattStoke]

7 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

18z GFS is still

 

Trended slightly further south than the 12z. That’ll probably continue and then people can rejoice that we’ve missed out on a major, widespread snow event and are instead left hoping on hit and miss showers because at least London won’t see rain and the cold air won’t be dislodged even though the cold air would flood back in on the back of the system anyway.

Same happened back in late November and the south saw nothing in the end before it turned milder, yet people don’t learn. I actually got a good dumping though so oh well

Edited January 10 by MattStoke

[BarometerCat]

Just for a laugh, but if this came off..

courtesy of the 18z GFS pub run special

 

[Dancerwithwings]

Just now, BarometerCat said:

Just for a laugh, but if this came off..

courtesy of the 18z GFS pub run special

 

Absolutely…for laughs it is at this stage… best way to treat it some people take it all it all far too seriously….come Sunday or even Monday…then if all snowy delights are still on show… then YES Bring it on

[WeatherArc]

Bit confused why a few people want the low to have a more southerly track, surely it will just end up in France and leave no snow for the entire country? 

I know its unfortunately the most likely outcome with these systems but it just seems that if it does track further south its just as likely to produce no snow for the south. 

[Metwatch]

Has gotten a little hectic in the "mad" model thread tonight, but I have to admit, I do enjoy it in there, most probably lose their tempers over time but I don't seem to . Here it's almost like a quieter respite with just some of you lovely Midlands folk.

GEFS 18z is just one set of runs & ensembles so means next to nothing on their own and tomorrow may well be different again. Loooong time to go until early next week when we can start to gain some consensus and even then there will likely be disagreements between different models on what the low actually does.

 

Very benign but dry rest of this week here, losing the sunshine and also frosts before it comes back early next week. Night all!

 

Edited January 10 by Metwatch

[I remember Atlantic 252]

GFS 00Z practically snowless, expect it to be near enough the result, certainly about the low going into France, then we turn milder with a whimper on 19th

[MattStoke]

5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

GFS 00Z practically snowless, expect it to be near enough the result, certainly about the low going into France, then we turn milder with a whimper on 19th

Yep. Ironic that it has it turning milder after the low heads south into France. 99% of the UK left snowless again, but the snow missing us is somehow good for snow/cold lovers  

[GokouD]

40 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Yep. Ironic that it has it turning milder after the low heads south into France. 99% of the UK left snowless again, but the snow missing us is somehow good for snow/cold lovers  

People on the south coast don't get rain, so it's obvious 'better for everyone'!

I'd much prefer a big frontal snowstorm, enjoy that for a day or 2, then the weather can go back to normal for all I care.