Midlands regional discussion - Winter 23/24

[I remember Atlantic 252]

A lot only know basics, I do and not really bothered about massive technical posts, need idiots guide sometimes, I don't understand real technical posts! and dosen't bring you the weather you want

Wilf, you live quite near my 99 year old Nan, the bus I get is 12 to Burton, she lives in King's Bromley

[SollyOlly]

Yes, I broadly agree with recent posts...one can pick up a basic working knowledge, but unless one is a professional or wants to be, the really technical stuff isn't necessary. @makelikeaturkey, as it happens, I started on GWV too, really loved it but wanted more, and rocked up here. Lurked for a year, then joined. Mostly great, some on the main boards can be a bit much (I've 'muted' a couple of folk who made it personal and were rude), but generally it's great. The regional board is overwhelmingly good.

Edited January 9 by SollyOlly

[Dancerwithwings]

12z ECM is

 

Edited January 9 by Dancerwithwings

[SollyOlly]

21 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

12z ECM is

 

Oh my days, I'm beginning to dream the dream...!

As it happens, I'm working away in Leeds for most of next week, and London for most of the week after. Last year, I missed the local snow because I was working away...this time, I'll either hit the jackpot and be going to the snow, or will travel the country missing it! The tension mounts...

[Dancerwithwings]

26 minutes ago, SollyOlly said:

Oh my days, I'm beginning to dream the dream...!

As it happens, I'm working away in Leeds for most of next week, and London for most of the week after. Last year, I missed the local snow because I was working away...this time, I'll either hit the jackpot and be going to the snow, or will travel the country missing it! The tension mounts...

I’m working down in Alcester next week

…..but as we know

We haven’t won any prizes in the current draw just yet

More or less winning postcodes will be revealed on the next run

Edited January 9 by Dancerwithwings

[Metwatch]

Next week will decide whether January 2021 and 2013 (15cm) will be topped for snowfall , and possibly make it the best month for snow this century. Next few days are very crucial within the model output. I produced a scenario graphic which has been put into the model discussion highlights thread to give a better idea of what may happen looking at ensembles and det runs

Back to today, on the fields I noticed ice starting to form on standing water like @Midlands Ice Age mentioned with his pond following a morning low of -0.7C here, and the ground is generally much drier! A biting easterly wind, but good to see the blue skies!

Edited January 9 by Metwatch

[makelikeaturkey]

Thought these might be of interest.

Will that occluded front bring snow?!

Edited January 10 by makelikeaturkey

[MattStoke]

Nice ECM again this morning. GFS has numerous snow chances too next week. Certainly the risk of something significant but impossible to call this far out.

[SollyOlly]

Beautifully cold this morning, I haven't got the temperatures to hand but it sure was frosty! Needed that extra time getting out of bed early to defrost the car...! 

I'm very happy with this cold weather, it's not all that common these days to say the least. Snow or no snow, for those of us with the coldie disposition, enjoy the temperatures! 

[WinterWilf]

So Thursday is the big day then. I may book it off as I am a delivery driver I cover 2 rounds in local area I usually love delivering in the snow but I would like a day where I can enjoy it and if we do get alot I don't fancy getting stuck somewhere. 

Although the person that covers me will be totally screwed and thing holding me back is having to do double the work on the Friday if they wimp out on doing it..

Usually I don't have to worry because none of these events actually come to fruition..

Thinking ahead just in case.

Hoping for a bullseye but does cause issues for me.

 

 

[MattStoke]

7 minutes ago, WinterWilf said:

So Thursday is the big day then. I may book it off as I am a delivery driver I cover 2 rounds in local area I usually love delivering in the snow but I would like a day where I can enjoy it and if we do get alot I don't fancy getting stuck somewhere. 

Although the person that covers me will be totally screwed and thing holding me back is having to do double the work on the Friday if they wimp out on doing it..

Usually I don't have to worry because none of these events actually come to fruition..

Thinking ahead just in case.

Hoping for a bullseye but does cause issues for me.

 

 

Latest GFS leaves our region dry next week, so large uncertainty.

[WinterWilf]

Just now, MattStoke said:

Latest GFS leaves our region dry next week, so large uncertainty.

I know It is full of uncertainty but with my job it's hard to get a day off to get cover etc but if I get in now before its all over the news that we may be getting an "event" of some sort next Thursday may hit the jackpot may not.. May leave it a day or so.

Ps. Enjoying your comments in the mod thread.

[MattStoke]

3 minutes ago, WinterWilf said:

I know It is full of uncertainty but with my job it's hard to get a day off to get cover etc but if I get in now before its all over the news that we may be getting an "event" of some sort next Thursday may hit the jackpot may not.. May leave it a day or so.

Ps. Enjoying your comments in the mod thread.

The bias in there really irritates me, and people completely deny that it exists and that anyone pointing it out is themselves being biased. Eugh.

Much prefer frontal snow, personally. Higher risk but you don't need deeply cold air and the snowfall is often more substantial and widespread, but some seem to think it automatically makes a return to raging south westerly and so would rather stay dry and hope for small, more marginal and more localised features to pop up, which simply isn't true. Seen fronts bring snow and leave the UK in cold air numerous times.

Always a bit disappointed when fronts trend away from the UK in these setups.

[WinterWilf]

Just now, MattStoke said:

The bias in there really irritates me, and people completely deny that it exists and that anyone pointing it out is themselves being biased. Eugh.

Much prefer frontal snow, personally. Higher risk but you don't need deeply cold air and the snowfall is often more substantial and widespread, but some seem to think it automatically makes a return to raging south westerly and so would rather stay dry and hope for small, more marginal and more localised features to pop up, which simply isn't true. Seen fronts bring snow and leave the UK in cold air numerous times.

Always a bit disappointed when fronts trend away from the UK in these setups.

Whatever you post in there you always get a challenge from someone who thinks you are talking rubbish or know nothing, Usually because it shows that their area may not be in the game for snow etc.

That's why I never post in there because I am always uncertain with my interpretation of the models due to lack of knowledge.

 

 

[WinterWilf]

A North easterly with streamers is always a good setup for us.

But battleground frontal snow has paid off before with a front coming from the south west has done too.

Hopefully this time the cold will stick around after.

[AltonMatthew]

Cold seems to be the overall theme over the coming days. I am skeptical in regards to precipitation. Just being outside you can feel how dry the air is. Think about the tundra and just how cold it gets there but overall quite dry.

I am all for snowy weather but I cant see anything in the models showing anything other than cold or dry just yet. Saying that most snow events ive experienced have been known within a 24 hour timeframe at best. 

Nice to be back in our regional thread as also experiencing the typical southern bias of the model output and its hard to discuss or determine the various outputs when focus is on a particular small area when compared to the whole of the UK. 

[Metwatch]

25 minutes ago, AltonMatthew said:

Cold seems to be the overall theme over the coming days. I am skeptical in regards to precipitation. Just being outside you can feel how dry the air is. Think about the tundra and just how cold it gets there but overall quite dry.

The much colder and drier continental airmass is now moving away, dewpoint is 2C now compared to -3C to -4C this time yesterday.

When the colder Arctic airmass arrives by Monday probably see drier air again with it. I think if any of us in central areas lower down are to see any decent snow amounts they would have to be via lows sliding in rather than streamers or small disturbances within the colder airmass like polar lows.

[MattStoke]

Time to get excited 

[AltonMatthew]

40 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Time to get excited 

SNOWMAGEDDON haha

[Weather Enthusiast91]

I am enjoying this cold (and sometimes sunny) and dry spell of weather. Whilst snow would be nice, this current spell is far more preferable to weeks on end of mild and wet dross. The air feels so fresh when the weather is like this and it's nice not getting drenched on my commute to and home from work.

I'd be happy for these conditions to last for the remainder of the winter, and of course snow. But I shan't hold my hopes up too much.

Edited January 10 by Weather Enthusiast91

[MattStoke]

No snow in the far south on the GFS 12z, so it must be an awful run for us all

[AltonMatthew]

3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

No snow in the far south on the GFS 12z, so it must be an awful run for us all

Think us in Stoke and Staffs Moorlands would be happy here. 

[Metwatch]

The amount of lMBYism with replies to my post when I posted that Met Office most likely scenario chart showing Midlands in the firing line for significant snow did give me a chuckle

Edited January 10 by Metwatch

[BarometerCat]

Wow, overall trend is good for cold after 14th, some outputs keeping it that way for over a week.   Mod thread getting a bit hectic now

[Dancerwithwings]

22 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

No snow in the far south on the GFS 12z, so it must be an awful run for us all

Yes… right now all is looking good….with fingers and toes all firmly crossed Matt 

We don’t see many a chart like this