Midlands regional discussion - Winter 23/24

[Metwatch]

Wow it's actually sunny today

[Neil Harris]

Sun, clear blue skies arrived about 2pm. Crisp.

More please

[nobble]

Felt chilly this afternoon / cold 

 

winter temps at least !

for some deep soon

[makelikeaturkey]

I've been lurking on the model discussion page for days, but live south of Nottingham.

As I understand it, any chance of snow next week seems to be focused more on the south east. Anything to watch out for for snow closer to us?

[BarometerCat]

9 hours ago, makelikeaturkey said:

I've been lurking on the model discussion page for days, but live south of Nottingham.

As I understand it, any chance of snow next week seems to be focused more on the south east. Anything to watch out for for snow closer to us?

I think, and if interpreting discussion right,it looks like snow could occur anywhere if some of the modelled conditions come off, including us in East Mids. Here’s hoping anyway!

Edited January 7 by BarometerCat

[BarometerCat]

As well as GFS, UKMO etc… there are some precipitation charts available here  

arpège model - precipitation united kingdom - info | weatheronline

WWW.WEATHERONLINE.CO.UK

---

Weather for UK, Ireland and the world. Sailing, Marine Weather, Weather maps, radar, satellite, climate, historic weather data, information about meteorology...

Some are better than others! 

On GFS I find it useful to look for the 528 dam line etc.. loads on the forum elsewhere about snow forecast but for most it’s nowcast and lampost watch!

[makelikeaturkey]

Cheers @BarometerCat.

Much that I love the excitement of the model discussion, I only really understand a tiny fraction of it... and to be honest, there's far too much ramping on there for my liking. If it snowed more often, I might make more effort to understand it all! I can at least get the jist of which way the wind's blowing... in both ways!

I understand the fax charts much better than the models though (with the exception of the 850 hPa temperature and precipitation graphs - they're logical) and they should be in range for us around Tuesday and Wednesday. I'll try to post something here closer to the time.

[BarometerCat]

2 minutes ago, makelikeaturkey said:

Cheers @BarometerCat.

Much that I love the excitement of the model discussion, I only really understand a tiny fraction of it... and to be honest, there's far too much ramping on there for my liking. If it snowed more often, I might make more effort to understand it all! I can at least get the jist of which way the wind's blowing... in both ways!

I understand the fax charts much better than the models though (with the exception of the 850 hPa temperature and precipitation graphs - they're logical) and they should be in range for us around Tuesday and Wednesday. I'll try to post something here closer to the time.

There is also a bias, North, South etc.. some post from an IMBY perspective which is fine but worth noting! I think it would be a brave move to attempt to predict snow days away. We can see if conditions are about right but that’s it. Fax charts are super useful. 

[makelikeaturkey]

28 minutes ago, BarometerCat said:

As well as GFS, UKMO etc… there are some precipitation charts available here  

arpège model - precipitation united kingdom - info | weatheronline

WWW.WEATHERONLINE.CO.UK

---

Weather for UK, Ireland and the world. Sailing, Marine Weather, Weather maps, radar, satellite, climate, historic weather data, information about meteorology...

Some are better than others! 

On GFS I find it useful to look for the 528 dam line etc.. loads on the forum elsewhere about snow forecast but for most it’s nowcast and lampost watch!

Argh! So many graphs!

[Terminal Moraine]

A few light snow flurries this morning. The first snow of 2024.

[stewfox]

I see the thread will be locked 29 Feb 2024.

Going to be a pain when we get the famous blizzard of Feb 29/1 March where to post

 

[BarometerCat]

Monday night arpege for Midlands

icon

not much else on other models.

High pressure to the north, cold uppers around but still I'm guessing anything or nothing can happen. 

 

[CoventryWeather]

@BarometerCat the Swiss 4x4 model indicates something more widespread. 

Known quite well for convection so I'm keeping an eye on this model, the UKV and arome were very poor this morning for the south east. 

[BarometerCat]

25 minutes ago, CoventryWeather said:

@BarometerCat the Swiss 4x4 model indicates something more widespread. 

Known quite well for convection so I'm keeping an eye on this model, the UKV and arome were very poor this morning for the south east. 

Cool! do you have a  link to those charts?  

[CoventryWeather]

21 minutes ago, BarometerCat said:

Cool! do you have a  link to those charts?  

You can find them here. 

https://meteologix.com/uk/model-charts/swisshd-eu/united-kingdom/significant-weather-extended/20240108-1200z.html

Hope the link works okay

Edited January 7 by CoventryWeather

[BarometerCat]

3 minutes ago, CoventryWeather said:

You can find them here. 

https://meteologix.com/uk/model-charts/swisshd-eu/united-kingdom/significant-weather-extended/20240108-1200z.html

Hope the link works okay

Perfect, ta! It looks like activity tomorrow PM onwards.  Will be interesting to see what comes of it.

[SollyOlly]

Decently cold today (albeit not freezing) and I managed to get my walk in when the sun was still out...rather amazingly, it actually felt like a proper winter's day! More please...

[sheikhy]

Arpege 18z sets up stream of snow showers for the central midlands tomorrow evening!!!

[Fozfoster]

[BarometerCat]

9 hours ago, sheikhy said:

Arpege 18z sets up stream of snow showers for the central midlands tomorrow evening!!!

 

 

 

Arprege for about now 

and later..

 

Swiss HD 4x4 recommended yesterday also shows light snow but as always lots of other factors and most will expect nothing at all  

 

[stripeyfox]

be nice to get a dusting tonight if possible (although I do want the kids to go back to school tomorrow!)

The met office app, whilst not totally accurate, showed 3 hours of "Heavy snow" for my area when I first woke up and now it's down to a single flake at 6pm!

 

[Battleground Snow]

The wash showers have begun @sheikhy!!

[MattStoke]

Can clearly see where the pool of very cold air is coming over the North Sea. Some pretty beefy showers developing. Not expecting much if anything here. Small chance of a localised dusting tonight.

[sheikhy]

1 hour ago, Battleground Snow said:

The wash showers have begun @sheikhy!!

Looked like it was kicking in but went quite again!!i guess its too early!looking at the models our best chance is between 4pm and 12am!!!

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Looked like it was kicking in but went quite again!!i guess its too early!looking at the models our best chance is between 4pm and 12am!!!

Yeah the angle of the wind isn't good for us until 4ish like you say.

But going on how badly the models have underestimated the precipitation in the south east, might get some heavier streamers than modelled.