Midlands regional discussion - Winter 23/24

[BarometerCat]

8 hours ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Absolutely…for laughs it is at this stage… best way to treat it some people take it all it all far too seriously….come Sunday or even Monday…then if all snowy delights are still on show… then YES Bring it on

And same time frame this morning - gone from GFS (as it would!). Still a long way out but a cold trend remains. Cold one ahead!

[MattStoke]

37 minutes ago, GokouD said:

People on the south coast don't get rain, so it's obvious 'better for everyone'!

I'd much prefer a big frontal snowstorm, enjoy that for a day or 2, then the weather can go back to normal for all I care.

Same.

Smaller features can pop up, and my location is often one to benefit, but the vast majority of places don't see them or seen rain/sleet because colder air is needed for convective snow. 

[MattStoke]

Anyway, the UKV shows the first small feature next week that could give snow for the north of the region. You can see that it pivots back on itself, so it could then bring in further snow later into Tuesday. Most models have a few small features moving southward next week but show them dying out as they do so.

UK must be showing further snow next Wednesday as the Met Office automated forecast shows snow for me and I think that uses UKV data.

[AltonMatthew]

I have to say I have said from the start we are getting an air mass which is typically dry. We were not likely to be getting the levels of snow forecast this time yesterday. I foresaw the low sinking south and believe it will keep doing so. Hopefully im wrong and there is a big flip today!

 

I see the model thread has once again become southerly driven. 

[Shezale coventry]

Hi gang 

 

Looks like the low next week will end up in france leaving us bone dry with cold week with frost. Better then the constant rain we have had in the last few months i suppose

[Midlander]

Looks a bit ‘meh’ tbh. 

I could live with the low moving into to France if it helped strengthen the cold spell.

But looks like the Atlantic will just roll in with a wet rather snowy breakdown 

[MattStoke]

5 minutes ago, Midlander said:

Looks a bit ‘meh’ tbh. 

I could live with the low moving into to France if it helped strengthen the cold spell.

But looks like the Atlantic will just roll in with a wet rather snowy breakdown 

Yep. Like November, thank goodness we miss a potential significant and widespread snow event and are instead left hoping on localised, more marginal snowfalls before the mild air arrives. Bang goes the theory that such lows heading south will leave us in a prolonged beast from the east type scenario.

[CoventryWeather]

Tamara posted about the technical side of the modelling - believes any Atlantic will be short lived. Seems similar to what the met are thinking, and to be fair I'm also not convinced the cold will be blow away as quickly as models are doing so. 

And @MattStoke, think Wednesdays snow is the low from the SW, as the app no longer has anything and did have some earlier today. Seems to be moving further south each run which is unfortunate, but there will be plenty of features running south eastwards next week. So not all hope is lost! 

1 hour ago, Midlander said:

Looks a bit ‘meh’ tbh. 

I could live with the low moving into to France if it helped strengthen the cold spell.

But looks like the Atlantic will just roll in with a wet rather snowy breakdown 

 

[MattStoke]

22 minutes ago, CoventryWeather said:

Tamara posted about the technical side of the modelling - believes any Atlantic will be short lived. Seems similar to what the met are thinking, and to be fair I'm also not convinced the cold will be blow away as quickly as models are doing so. 

 

Yep, which further shows that low pressure coming in doesn't necessarily spell the end of a cold spell and so we should all wish for a drier setup with marginal, localised snowfalls instead, but trying to get people in that thread to understand that is like talking to a brick wall.

[GokouD]

I've just arranged to drive into the office on Wednesday, maybe that will jinx the snow into falling now!

[MattStoke]

This afternoon's model runs so far shift next week's snow risk into southern areas but too far south for much of the Midlands.

Joy abounds in the model thread. They're definitely not biased, though.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

Overcast and slightly drizzly despite an air pressure of 1,039mb. Looks like anticyclonic gloom has taken hold.

[CoventryWeather]

The low next week shifted north again, but too far south for us. Maybe the west mids in, but the likes of Staffordshire perhaps not... I'm hoping for a bit of a northwards shift. 

Won't mention that in the models thread...

[MattStoke]

Never fear, the GEM has nailed it. It has several systems bringing snow despite the first low missing the Midlands.

[GokouD]

Good old GEM, it's always been my favourite model, honest!

[WinterWilf]

Yes I am not surprised we are out of the game seeing how in the past we can be nailed on with a day to go then a total reversal happens.

Plenty of time for things to change even if it's not next week the important thing is to get the cold in first "super cliche" then see what happens.

At least we are not looking at these charts the end of February like the last few years sun Is still low in the sky.

Maybe it will be our winter but I think that every year.

Law of averages and all that.

[Midlander]

I count about 4 GFS perts bringing the system far enough north to the Midlands. Pert 27 looks the best, but if the GEM is correct, I doubt many would complain if we miss out

Edited January 11 by Midlander

[Metwatch]

Some of the more knowledgeable in the mod thread do seem to be adamant that the cold may last longer than what most ensembles show given various background drivers and the strat, with renewed cold in February but we'll see, especially with Feb as that's way too far out.

If the cold can at least end in spectacular fashion, with a lot of snow that would do me nicely. Longer cold spells without snow doesn't interest me, only thing it will do is reduce any flooding problems from earlier this month. Still all to play for the next 10-14 days I'd say.

[Dancerwithwings]

19 minutes ago, Midlander said:

I count about 4 GFS perts bringing the system far enough north to the Midlands. Pert 27 looks the best, but if the GEM is correct, I doubt many would complain if we miss out

[MattStoke]

GEM does actually bring snow from Wednesday’s system across the Midlands but it looks light away from the south.

 

Then another system moves in ftom the west and gives snow on Thursday.

 

On Friday a 3rd system brings snow up from the south.

 

It’s the sort of model run I dream about but that never verifies.

Edited January 11 by MattStoke

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, MattStoke said:

This afternoon's model runs so far shift next week's snow risk into southern areas but too far south for much of the Midlands.

Joy abounds in the model thread. They're definitely not biased, though.

would rather it did go into France then after all

[Midlander]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

GEM does actually bring snow from Wednesday’s system across the Midlands but it looks light away from the south.

 

Then another system moves in ftom the west and gives snow on Thursday.

 

On Friday a 3rd system brings snow up from the south.

 

It’s the sort of model run I dream about but that never verifies.

  

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

would rather it did go into France then after all

Haha

[I remember Atlantic 252]

definitely coldest feeling wait today for the 12, when it's dry with no snow on ground or due, think I'd rather it was mild

and the EC for Monday is a 'waste'? -9 850's but wishbone effect

[Dancerwithwings]

Weather will play its games and sometimes the outcome isn't what is expected 

But that’s our battle, struggle and unending interest in all want it is

Our UK weather certainly does that for us for sure

 

Edited January 11 by Dancerwithwings

[MattStoke]

ECM brings through a little feature later next week.

A northerly with snow showers down windward coasts, a low missing to the south, and a small feature bringing snow from the west into the North Midlands.

It’s giving me deja vu from November.