Midlands regional discussion - Winter 23/24

[MattStoke]

Models continuing to trend the low southwards meaning many are left hoping on smaller, more localised and more marginal features to pop up at short notice. Illogical that this is better for snow chances despite the consensus in the model thread that it is.

Locations like mine might see showers through the Cheshire gap depending on exact wind direction, and then the possibility of one or two small features moving west to east later in the week but many more sheltered areas may see little or nothing.

Edited January 12 by MattStoke

[I remember Atlantic 252]

9 hours ago, Midlander said:

We may well have a greater chance of recording ice days than snow next week

bbbbbbboring

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

After weeks of looking at amazing charts its looking like next week may just be dry and very cold, not what the majority on here will want at this time of year I'm sure, myself included

I love nothing more than disruptive snow and it seems just so hard to get to our small island these days. We were fortunate to get around 4 inches in the cold spell in December, hope that's not all we see this winter and I genuinely feel for those that haven't seen a flake

I suppose it hasn't happened yet, but even Laura Toben was saying on GMTV this morning that although snow is forecast, it is only a low probability and may only affect the south before turning back to rain

You can't help but think if this all does come to pass and we don't get a good dumping or lengthy cold spell, with the synoptics we have on offer, what on earth would it take

As ever, time will tell!  

 

 

 

[MattStoke]

47 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

bbbbbbboring

At least frost would be thick enough to give the look of snow.

UKV looks good for Cheshire gap showers (Never seem to get a true streamer).

[AltonMatthew]

Ill take the cheshire gap effect. These showers often give us at least a covering of snow in our neck of the woods, Stoke and Staff Moorlands. 

 

I always approached this as a cold dry period. There is just such a dry feel to the air, after all the recent rainfall it is of course a good thing in real terms for farming and the locals who have suffered some flooding already this year. 

 

I would however love an old fashioned good covering of snow that leaves us in Alton cut off! We were very lucky in December to have had a very good snowfall. 

[Snowshine]

Another day of overcast skies and average temperatures, really quite disappointing after such a dull December.

As for next week, I do hope that it isn't merely a repeat of the cold and dry weather we had in late November, and that snow chances increase over our region in the coming days. We deserve it after such an abysmally wet start to the year.

 

Edited January 12 by Snowshine

[andy_leics22]

It's a shame that next week looks largely dry now for the Midlands. Some charts did look incredible a few days ago, but they have downgraded a lot since then. Who knows, we may see some upgrades before Wednesday/Thursday, but it doesn't look good at the moment.

[Gord]

Haven't posted yet this winter because simply, with each year that passes, I'm rapidly losing interest in winter weather.

I have to say that after an awful Christmas and New Year for weather, I am enjoying this dry and colder spell...even if it is a bit dull. It's just nice to get rid of some of the slop when walking the dogs!

As for next week. Well, we've been here plenty of times before in the Midlands haven't we? With varying results. January 2010 being the most notable when we were looking ahead to a long cold but very dry spell...and it ended up turning into something quite special at short notice. With so much information online these days and with the Met Office being so active on social media now (which is far from being a bad thing I should point out!) it becomes easy to cherry pick out the information we want to hear. But these longer range forecasts do emphasise the uncertainty which can be easy to miss when you want to get excited about something.

We'll see, it looks like a cold, dry spell right now, but the jury really is out on this...in fact, they haven't even received their summons letters yet! I hope there's something this winter to reignite the spark that I've lost in getting excited about weather.

One things for sure...that spark will be back when the first convective showers in the spring warmth start bubbling up!

So until something happens, be it this winter or Spring...I'll certainly be lurking here a little in my spare time and hopefully have some exciting weather to share at some point.

Looking forward to Monday morning and seeing what kind of week we could be looking at.

[CoventryWeather]

Someone mentioned the south is 'snow-starved' in the model thread! 

Was last December a blur to those? 

[Arctic Hare]

3 hours ago, andy_leics22 said:

It's a shame that next week looks largely dry now for the Midlands. Some charts did look incredible a few days ago, but they have downgraded a lot since then. Who knows, we may see some upgrades before Wednesday/Thursday, but it doesn't look good at the moment.

We live in the Midlands. Disappointment is part of winter for us. Admittedly that can make the unexpected surprises all the sweeter (as Gord mentions re Jan 2010) but tbh even cold and grey is almost a relief right now because it's *dry*.

I really would like some more sun, though. Cold, frosty, sunny mornings are very nice, but the odd day apart there've been very few around here this time so far.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Next week looking cold and dry, maybe odd passing snow flurry, but turning milder between 19th-21st, from then I expect some very mild, even warm air at times with the flooding and met office named storms

[andy_leics22]

All may not be lost. A 100 mile shift Northwards and we'd be in business. Maybe i'm straw clutching but it's still 5 days away, so it can happen

[MattStoke]

Interesting. Some models do develop a trough through the Irish Sea. Trouble is, it also cuts off the shower risk and might die out before reaching our region.

[andy_leics22]

5 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Interesting. Some models do develop a trough through the Irish Sea. Trouble is, it also cuts off the shower risk and might die out before reaching our region.

The potential is there! I think with it still being 4-5 days away, there is still a lot of uncertainty, and that could work in our favour. A shift of 50-100 miles in either the trough or slider low could be good for us. I often find in these scenarios, things don't start to become clearer until 2-3 days away, so it's still all to play for.

[Midlands Ice Age]

Not too active on here as its very dull and quite cool around here today!!

Oh yes,  I am sure that the forecast of us missing any snow has helped as well 

However I am still not convinced that we will miss out as the less cold weather moves in next week.

Keep your pecker up!

MIA

[Dancerwithwings]

12 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Not too active on here as its very dull and quite cool around here today!!

Oh yes,  I am sure that the forecast of us missing any snow has helped as well 

However I am still not convinced that we will miss out as the less cold weather moves in next week.

Keep your pecker up!

MIA

I agree, there’s still lots of uncertainty as the Northerly will bring very unstable conditions, and in them scenarios can definitely bring troughs and kinks at very short notice, so yes MIA it’s still possible for us to see some snowfall

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I'm going for potentially warm the week of 22nd, at least dry on this but maybe 14 degrees, said this before the EC came out

[Dancerwithwings]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

I'm going for potentially warm the week of 22nd, at least dry on this but maybe 14 degrees, said this before the EC came out

I’m in agreement with ya, but for now let’s see what pans out next week, at least it’ll be a cold one for us collective coldies

[Metwatch]

Thursday-Friday on ECM would be conducive to some Cheshire gap action i'd say, quite cold air going over the warm Irish Sea which has surface temperatures of a balmy 11-12C.

 

But I would say this spell is looking increasingly snowless / minor snow for the vast majority here, and more seem to be understanding that it won't be a snowy wonderland for 98% of the population like it was in early Jan 2010. Not to fret though, can't write off winter just yet

Edited January 12 by Metwatch

[nobble]

The forecast isn’t as exciting as it was a few days back , 

 

but I’d rather it be poor for snow then get surprised than forecast fantastic then let down

 

time (as ever) will tell …..

 

keep the faith everyone

[LeeKay/]

I have not read anything, on mod.

Going to  get a birt cold yes. but Chill out maybe

[Don]

6 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

I'm going for potentially warm the week of 22nd, at least dry on this but maybe 14 degrees, said this before the EC came out

One word, GHASTLY!! 

[Neil Harris]

The model thread is very down this morning.

a week of cold but no snow then back to mild..

roll on March

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, Neil Harris said:

The model thread is very down this morning.

a week of cold but no snow then back to mild..

roll on March

That's exactly it for us, but most northern members seeing snow

[MattStoke]

Snow chances diminishing with every model run.