Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[booferking]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Low but higher than normal for the time of the year. It’s low because it’s past 14 days out!

Well i hope the Korean model is right. 

[Chesil View]

Looking like a slow burner (or perhaps that should be cooler) this one. At the end of the Ecm run we have a solid mid latitude/UK block in place with background signals suggesting that beyond this the vortex segments bridging to our north should separate allowing our high to migrate north or northwest.

 

 

 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

00z eps mean day 10  and the ec op 12z day 10

seems pretty much as expected to me 
 

  

Yes energy into Europe saving the day..

We desperately need a break to the North though, the low heights are relentless..

[Polar Maritime]

Its starting to get a bit bumby in here, let's move on on and please report any posts you think are against the guidelines..

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Bullseye said:

Dude stop moving the goal posts here, it has been shown by @That ECM that high dosen't sink south as you claimed. 

Tonight's ECM 12z, for me, is well inline with what MO has been running with over last few days - UK high which could lead to severe frosts, no better example than that from latest ECM. 

Dude we have moved away from the amplification scenario shown earlier. The high is now modelled to be further South than on earlier runs.

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, booferking said:

Well i hope the Korean model is right. 

Me too buddy! That fits what I’d expect come then! I guess we wait and see! If nothing else it’s interesting to see play out don’t you agree? Anyway happy new year buddy 

 

1 minute ago, booferking said:

Well i hope the Korean model is right. 

[Mark wheeler]

Comparing mogreps yesterdays 12z with todays . London being the example. More scatter to me . Still trending colder though.

[TillyS]

11 minutes ago, IDO said:

I would ignore the GFS op as it is on the progressive side of the mean,

 

We absolutely must not ignore it. It wasn’t an outlier, except for a tiny smidgen way out at T300. It might well be right. In fact, if we take a step back and are objective and dispassionate we’d have to say that the 12z GFS is the form horse.

Ignoring the GFS is perilous at any time, especially so when we’re putting our money on such a fragile cold scenario as the UKMO or occasional ECM run / ensemble members show.

[Battleground Snow]

5 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Comparing mogreps yesterdays 12z with todays . London being the example. More scatter to me . Still trending colder though.

They are solidly cold, going have to be an answer soon as ukmo diverges around 132.

Why do people take FI charts as "probable" when it doesn't show cold?

It can all change again in the next 24 hours

Edited December 31, 2023 by Battleground Snow

[booferking]

4 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Me too buddy! That fits what I’d expect come then! I guess we wait and see! If nothing else it’s interesting to see play out don’t you agree? Anyway happy new year buddy 

 

Hopefully ends well for us coldies happy new year to you to bud.

[mulzy]

5 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Comparing mogreps yesterdays 12z with todays . London being the example. More scatter to me . Still trending colder though.

Day 8 MOGREPS stamps.  A UK High is the favoured solution, but other interesting solutions on offer…

Edited December 31, 2023 by mulzy

[MP-R]

14 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

First week of Feb is when I see any potential

Mid June is when I see potential!

Oh poo, wrong discussion... 

[Polar Maritime]

Happy New Year all

[snowspotter]

Well considering I’m heading to Alps in a weeks time for a few weeks the models look great to me . It’s looking decent in UK well . The deep freeze here can wait until late January ! When I’m back 

[Kasim Awan]

3 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Day 8 MOGREPS stamps.  A UK High is the favoured solution, but other interesting solutions on offer…

I think whatever happens temperatures will be a lot more seasonal but the risk of snow in the next 10 days is very low indeed, due to a lack of modelled low pressure.

[LRD]

3 minutes ago, TillyS said:

We absolutely must not ignore it. It wasn’t an outlier, except for a tiny smidgen way out at T300. It might well be right. In fact, if we take a step back and are objective and dispassionate we’d have to say that the 12z GFS is the form horse.

Ignoring the GFS is perilous at any time, especially so when we’re putting our money on such a fragile cold scenario as the UKMO or occasional ECM run / ensemble members show.

I totally agree that any GFS run shouldn't be discounted but if the boot was on the other foot and the Op was one of the coldest members of the ensemble suite you'd probably be dismissing it on that basis

You can't have it both ways

And before you accuse me of hope-casting or whatever, I don't have any skin in the game. If it happens, it happens. If it doesn't, it doesn't. No skin off my nose either way. But for what it's worth I reckon it'll be cold and frosty next week and then there is potential for more dramatic cold weather by the weekend of the 13th/14th

[Mike Poole]

I’ve been out all day, so have had little time to review the models, but just wanted to wish everyone a Happy New Year!

Just to note, the UKMO 12z evolution not dissimilar to a small cluster which still showed better WAA into Greenland early doors, it had 6 members - this morning I described it as a ‘legacy’ cluster that the modelling had moved on from, and I still think that is probably the case, but it is still there, it would be nice to see it still represented in this evening’s clusters, I’m not very hopeful though.  

What happens in the 10+ day timeframe is very much up for grabs, but I’m buying neither the argument that the models are rubbish and can’t see the light (the light being retrogression up to Greenland), nor am I buying the argument that there is no chance for that to happen.  We just don’t know and will need to chart where we go from the UK high in due course.

[Allseasons-Si]

I wouldn't mind a UK high TBF as it would be nice from all the wind and rain we have had so far this season,bring on the hoar frost's i would say,then we look for the next renewed amplification heading towards mid-month as the ECM/GEM op and conrol as well as the KMA at day ten show(black arrow)

let's be patiant and see where we head in the next few day's

 

[Scott Ingham]

5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

I think whatever happens temperatures will be a lot more seasonal but the risk of snow in the next 10 days is very low indeed, due to a lack of modelled low pressure.

This I ageee with 

[keithlucky]

Met settling on a HP settling North with a bitter East wind so let's move on from constant negative comments.

Edited December 31, 2023 by keithlucky

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

I’ve been out all day, so have had little time to review the models, but just wanted to wish everyone a Happy New Year!

Just to note, the UKMO 12z evolution not dissimilar to a small cluster which still showed better WAA into Greenland early doors, it had 6 members - this morning I described it as a ‘legacy’ cluster that the modelling had moved on from, and I still think that is probably the case, but it is still there, it would be nice to see it still represented in this evening’s clusters, I’m not very hopeful though.  

What happens in the 10+ day timeframe is very much up for grabs, but I’m buying neither the argument that the models are rubbish and can’t see the light (the light being retrogression up to Greenland), nor am I buying the argument that there is no chance for that to happen.  We just don’t know and will need to chart where we go from the UK high in due course.

An interesting strat run to look at on Berlin in the morning too with split showing at 10/30/50 hpa at least.   

[bluearmy]

9 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

Met settling on a HP settling North with a bitter East wind so let's move on from this negative comments.

That was yesterdays 12z run Keith 

let’s hope todays can hold that - EDIT: it won’t 

Edited December 31, 2023 by bluearmy

[WYorksWeather]

Has to be said, unfortunately, that as well as the OP (which is still a mild outlier, and at times quite an extreme one), the ensembles are also a slight downgrade on the 12z compared to other recent runs. The good news is that the downgrades mostly come later in the run, we still see the mean getting down to -5C or thereabouts around the 7th.

Definitely the way we'd rather have it to be fair, it's far better that than getting downgrades at day 7 and upgrades at day 14, which is what we see far too often.

As long as the signal around the 7th doesn't collapse we're OK I think. Will be interesting to see the ECM 12z ensembles later for comparison.

[Guest]

 Bring on the frog and fost!.........not gonna lie had a few mojitos!

 Happy New year!

[Daniel*]

Retrogression anyone… what I’m seeing there might be a brief window for wintriness further SE next weekend the high becoming more influential over UK a mid latitude block, but not sinking into Europe, the appetite for prolonged -NAO is strong as Tamara has reflected on.