Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Methuselah]

Well, seeing as the GFS is so far 'on board' it's 'smelling the coffee', I thought it was time for a wee gander:

Day 5:       

Day 10:     

Day 16:     

And, just as with buying coffee from McDonald's, I almost wish I hadn't bothered. I cannae stand anticyclonic gloom! 

HAPPY NEW YEAR, Everyone!

Edited January 1 by Methuselah

[Catacol]

25 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

So is the spilt back on ??

It is possible for a vortex split to occur without a reversal or technical SSW. This is where the latest EC run is. We had one of these last year in December which gave us the very cold spell which was dry for many but still featured some severe frosts.

The issue with splits like this is they are very different to the one we got in 2018 where the split was representative of complete vortex disintegration. If we get one in 7-10 days it will be with the vortex still intact but certainly weakened. That means no nirvana synoptics as we got back then, but still very possible for things to align with the block dragging cold in from Scandy…but we will need a dose of good fortune. And we could do with a swift MJO passage through mid Jan in order to sustain any such cold. The MetO are keeping their options open on this one - clearly their super computer is suggesting that the block might possibly entrench and then be reinforced though they see that option as low probability. For amateurs like us, keep checking the strat forecasts, keep a beady eye on the MJO and we will cross fingers that the dip in GLAAM isn’t too long lived. We have falling momentum now (well - 29/12 anyway)

and the first sign we will get of a move back towards reinvigorated support will be when the gradient on this frictional torque graph turns positive.

Bear in mind all of this discussion is impacted by lag. Add 10-14 days approx for impacts near us, though I have never quite been able to nail down the lag period with any precision. 

 

Edited January 1 by Catacol

[Dennis]

5 minutes ago, Catacol said:

It is possible for a vortex split to occur without a reversal or technical SSW. This is where the latest EC run is. We had one of these last year in December which gave us the very cold spell which was dry for many but still featured some severe frosts.

The issue with splits like this is they are very different to the one we got in 2018 where the split was representative of complete vortex disintegration. If we get one in 7-10 days it will be with the vortex still intact but certainly weakened. That means no nirvana synoptics as we got back then, but still very possible for things to align with the block dragging cold in from Scandy…but we will need a dose of good fortune. And we could do with a swift MJO passage through mid Jan in order to sustain any such cold. The MetO are keeping their options open onthis one - clearly their super computer is suggesting that the block might possibly entrench and then be reinforced though they see that option as low probability. For amateurs like us, keep checking the strat forecasts, keep a beady eye on the MJO and we will cross fingers that the dip in GLAAM isn’t too long lived. We have falling momentum now (well - 29/12 anyway)

and the first sign we will get of a move back towards reinvigorated support will be when the gradient on this frictional torque graph turns positive.

Bear in mind all of this discussion is impacted by lag. Add 10-14 days approx for impacts near us, though I have never quite been able to nail down the lag period with any precision. 

 

with some good heating lets see how it goes soon 

 

[sheikhy]

Ecm 06z op has low slightly further west near eastern seaboard at 90 hours compared to the 00z run!more amplification in the atlantic aswell!!!!!

[northwestsnow]

All eyes on Exeter / UKMO 12Z..

At the very least a prolonged dry spell is almost nailed on , we just got to hope the pieces fall in our favour for retrogression..

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Ecm 06z op has low slightly further west near eastern seaboard at 90 hours compared to the 00z run!more amplification in the atlantic aswell!!!!!

Yeah we need a ukmo type evolution to maximise the easterly flow because the initial thrust won't be enough to bring us a sustained Beasterly on EC/ GFS ..

UKMO looks far enough North for some snow showers to get going..

let's hope for something along these lines this evening.. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Yeah we need a ukmo type evolution to maximise the easterly flow because the initial thrust won't be enough to bring us a sustained Beasterly on EC/ GFS ..

UKMO looks far enough North for some snow showers to get going..

let's hope for something along these lines this evening.. 

What do you think would happen after 168 there?

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

What do you think would happen after 168 there?

Easterly ...

 

[Ali1977]

️

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Easterly ...

 

That was my guess..the high wouldn't go anywhere fast it doesn't look like a sinker

[bluearmy]

41 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

All eyes on Exeter / UKMO 12Z..

At the very least a prolonged dry spell is almost nailed on , we just got to hope the pieces fall in our favour for retrogression..

Control at day 6

trough off eastern seaboard slightly less deep

ridge likely to have a smidgen less traction than the 00z run 

cut back of the jet across se England better 

EDIT: the cut back of the jet is a timing issue with the 06z a little slower than the 00z was 

probably similar story with the ridge 

let’s call it much of a muchness then with no discernible differences !

 

Edited January 1 by bluearmy

[Alexis]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

️

"A chance even the rest of the month could stay cold and maybe wintry"

[MJB]

Flooded Car Park

Pathway flooded 

River Cherwell burst banks

Sports centre car park flooded

Park flooded

This evenings rain won't help

[I remember Atlantic 252]

31 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yeah we need a ukmo type evolution to maximise the easterly flow because the initial thrust won't be enough to bring us a sustained Beasterly on EC/ GFS ..

UKMO looks far enough North for some snow showers to get going..

let's hope for something along these lines this evening.. 

damn, Kent buried, best setup for them, and other parts of SE

[sebastiaan1973]

I guess it is more or less the same in parts of sourthern England. After a cold week, the 8th of december till 31th was extreme warm at De Bilt. Just in 2015 it was warmer. Second column is sunhours. It was very cloudy these days. 

[TSNWK]

6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

damn, Kent buried, best setup for them, and other parts of SE

What do you mean damn!

[sheikhy]

Improved ecm mean and control 06z!!better cut back of cold air into the uk from the east and also high slightly further north and west!!

[Battleground Snow]

33 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Control at day 6

trough off eastern seaboard slightly less deep

ridge likely to have a smidgen less traction than the 00z run 

cut back of the jet across se England better 

EDIT: the cut back of the jet is a timing issue with the 06z a little slower than the 00z was 

probably similar story with the ridge 

let’s call it much of a muchness then with no discernible differences !

 

The mean looks a little bit better with amplification, compared to the 00z.

It's out on meteociel now for us peasants

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

The mean looks a little bit better with amplification, compared to the 00z.

It's out on meteociel now for us peasants

Goood timing that was mate!!guess nothing changes in that regard between us first day into the new year!!!!

[blizzard81]

Decent mogreps. Let's bring this home. 

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Decent mogreps. Let's bring this home. 

Start of a new year so lets bring that new freeze with it!!!!

[Nick2373]

06z not that I pay much attention to it, but all I’m seeing is a Euro high setup from the 09th of Jan onwards nothing cold just anticyclone rubbish grey and gloomy

[nick sussex]

The ECM 06 hrs ensembles vary from the warmest -3 to coldest -12.5 at 850 level for London at T144 hrs .

Still a large degree of uncertainty regarding the depth of cold .

 

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, Nick2373 said:

06z not that I pay much attention to it, but all I’m seeing is a Euro high setup from the 09th of Jan onwards nothing cold just anticyclone rubbish grey and gloomy

The temps on the GEFS are no way near as cold as Mogreps or EC ENS, hopefully more upgrades on the 12z - and maybe some sign of snow showers from the east by late this next weekend. 

[Nick2373]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM 06 hrs ensembles vary from the warmest -3 to coldest -12.5 at 850 level for London at T144 hrs .

Still a large degree of uncertainty regarding the depth of cold .

 

Euro high I’m thinking from that output