Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Cymro]

If these runs are sobering then might I suggest that we've got drunk on all the water currently laying about the UK rather than a good fine wine? 

To see a protracted signal for dryer than average weather after all this recent rainfall is warming this Welshman's heart and trust me I've almost grown a dorsal fin and webbed feet! 

Seldom do we see dry weather in January let alone strong signals for below average temperatures! 

Let's enjoy the ride! 

 

[January Snowstorm]

I wonder is there a chance that the Scandi high develops further and the Greenland high delays more. All gold just different types. There is definitely a trend in both op and now control to delay the heights into Greenland. The wise among us know that delays are never good

[bluearmy]

I think the 00z or 12z runs  tomorrow will be the first runs to be initialised with the reversal at the top of the strat in the starting data 

if we are to have any shifts in the nwp as a consequence then we don’t have long to wait 

[Ali1977]

The BBC app is normally on the mild side further out - that’s starting to get colder quickly for next week at my neck of the woods!! 

[Mark wheeler]

Uppers are disappointing . Only Joking just joining in with the spirit of the thread .

[January Snowstorm]

Viewed as a snap shot, it's not a great chart

[Eagle Eye]

One of the most fantasy island looking GFS runs ever past day 10. Go home GFS, you've had one too many drinks...

Edited January 2 by Eagle Eye

[Scott Ingham]

1 hour ago, Catacol said:

While celebrations abound - this is significant perhaps. Frictional torque already on the turn, looking like its drift into negative territory has bottomed out:

Similarly the crash in momentum has possibly also bottomed out:

Overall GLAAM has not dived too much, though it will go down a bit further from here

and the extended EPS showing this for mid month over China

I'm seeing the potential here for another +EAMT event (to be honest Eric Webb spotted it first....)

In plain speak? The higher we can keep the base GLAAM state the better our chances of maintaining amplification with the jet pushed south, and even when the MJO enters phases less helpful in terms of wave position if amplification is sustained then our block gets trapped. Will bounce around - Tamara and Scott have flagged it as a possibility already - and then when AAM increases once again in line with a +EAMT event mid month (hopefully with the MJO pushing through the maritimes once again) we get a resurgence of the blocking signal just where we want it. If the block has ended up in a less favourable slot as the MJO sits in the IO (and that is an if and not a when) then this serves to bring it back where we want it.

The chances of extended cold are always slim, but the picture this paints is plausible and it could certainly happen. These teleconnective signals do not always stay in the trench as hoped for - sometimes Vadar and his two wingmen swoop down and shoot them back out - but right know we are in the trench and the exhaust port is not a million miles away. By this time next week we will have a good sense of where the block is going on the second pulse helped by vortex weakening or even splitting, and how these signals may be lining up.

It's all good.....so very very good....

PS - a little addendum while I think of it. Those that remember the amplification event of Dec 2010 will know that we all felt the timeline was finite. The signals were lining up to flatten out the pattern and following that spell we had a winter pretty much to forget afterwards. Not so this time. I do not know whether the amplification on the horizon will give us anything close to what happened then, but I do know that the signals are lining up in quite an opposite frame to those back in 2010. Dont forget the seasonals also saw a very blocked March....

 

Look at the very back end of the gfs. Tentative signs there of high pressure edging into scandi for me. In fact I’d say 4 days later on it will stretch from greeny to scandi (the m*sausage) the potential in Jan n Feb this year is obscene but the word obscene could also be called super rare so expectations aren’t there really yet!!

Edited January 2 by Norrance
Banned word

[weathercold]

22 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

A couple of facts

1 - The Easterly continues to dilute

2 - The Greenland height rises now happen day 12, not day 10. That's deep FI.

3 - The Greenland height rises are weaker than previous run.

In general all good but the operational run is not as good as 12z. Fine margins.

And to add balance the Mean is still very good, if not better so maybe the op just an outlier

Think it will be on the warmer side of the pack. Not really investing much thought into the small window easterly saga. 14th/15th has consistently remained the landing zone, steady as she goes…

[January Snowstorm]

Control finds a shortwave at 216hrs. No height rises into Greenland at this stage. As per op a delay 

[on the coast]

1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

Control finds a shortwave at 216hrs. No height rises into Greenland at this stage. As per op a delay 

At 216 !! Really?

[Catacol]

Still looking good @Scott Ingham

[Jason M]

Just now, January Snowstorm said:

Viewed as a snap shot, it's not a great chart

I've seen much worse. Last winter the game was basically over by new year. This year does feel a bit different. I think people on here are putting too much stall in day 10 charts though. Its just my opinion of course and I totally respect the right of others to do so 

[Johnp]

4 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Control finds a shortwave at 216hrs. No height rises into Greenland at this stage. As per op a delay 

It seems you actively try and find problems, rather than just enjoying the ride. It still looks like it will retrogress fwiw. 

[okidoke]

We always do this. .. get over excited to soon I remember years a very similar set up all models showed cold .. and snow then 1 Member showed mild .. .and the flip was insane so remember nothing is set in stone till you actually see it and feel it lol

[Scott Ingham]

6 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Still looking good @Scott Ingham

Looks amazing! If it comes off I’m going to write a journal explaining the thinking from the second week in December. If it doesn’t a post mortem will be good as a learning! 
 

Also I replied to your earlier post and it’s gone red and waiting to be accepted before it’s posted is there any reason for this mods?

Edited January 2 by Scott Ingham

[Ventnor Viking]

More consistency with this up coming cold spell from the models. Definitely caution needed as to how long this will last. The biggest down fall of Greenland blocks is the energy pushing in to northern Canada as that causes the block to collapse rapidly. 

I know this is deep fi, but this is just an example of what to look out for. Circled in red in the US is a monster winter storm, which would probably be record cold and snow for the northern states if this came off. What it does do though is push into northern Canada causing our block to collapse. Ideally here we need this to push much further north and hopefully linking up to the artic high, although very unlikely at this stage due to not enough of the vortex shifting over to Asia.

 

 

Edited January 2 by Ventnor Viking
Wrong words

[Scott Ingham]

35 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Forget the op, the GEFS mean now has an easterly flow across the south.

That’s a stunning and surprisingly good mean! Upgrades to possibly come if that is the case!

[GSP]

7 minutes ago, okidoke said:

We always do this. .. get over excited to soon I remember years a very similar set up all models showed cold .. and snow then 1 Member showed mild .. .and the flip was insane so remember nothing is set in stone till you actually see it and feel it lol

“and snow then 1 Member showed mild..”

All it takes is one voice, singing in the darkness…

[booferking]

It really is bipolar in here another beautiful mean chart day 10.

[Formula_1_Fan]

3 hours ago, RainAllNight said:

Your post prompted me to look for model output discussion threads from around that time... for some reason the nearest one I could find is this one, from six months later, but it is still interesting to see:

The best way of finding the old threads that I've found is using the Internet archive. Annoying it took a grab of the forum on 3rd Nov 2010 and then not again until Jan 2011 so its a bit tricky.

However from Jan 2011 you can go back and find the model discussion, it looks like it was broken down into a new thread pretty much every day once the fun started but this might be some help for you or anyone else wanting to see how it evolved from the forums perspective. You might have to go through a few pages before finding what you want though!

 

Forecasting Model Discussion - Netweather Community Forums

WEB.ARCHIVE.ORG

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Forecasting Model Discussion: Discuss all aspects of forecasting model output here.

 

[Metwatch]

Much more encouraging seeing the ensemble means, with the stronger signals of heights over Greenland and is quite consistent in a lot of recent runs!

Edited January 2 by Metwatch

[Eagle Eye]

7 hours ago, Met4Cast said:

This post removed.

Ha ha yeah, we look very likely to enter an extended cold period. The mean is looking almost exactly the same as the last run. Nothing to worry about really. Night all.

[Rain All Night]

11 minutes ago, Formula_1_Fan said:

The best way of finding the old threads that I've found is using the Internet archive. Annoying it took a grab of the forum on 3rd Nov 2010 and then not again until Jan 2011 so its a bit tricky.

However from Jan 2011 you can go back and find the model discussion, it looks like it was broken down into a new thread pretty much every day once the fun started but this might be some help for you or anyone else wanting to see how it evolved from the forums perspective. You might have to go through a few pages before finding what you want though!

 

Forecasting Model Discussion - Netweather Community Forums

WEB.ARCHIVE.ORG

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Forecasting Model Discussion: Discuss all aspects of forecasting model output here.

 

Fabulous, thank you!!! How interesting this is to see!

It looks like the model discussion threads used to be in their own sub-forum that no longer exists, which would explain why they can't be found on the site any more - bit of a shame really!

[okidoke]

13 minutes ago, booferking said:

It really is bipolar in here another beautiful mean chart day 10.

But day 10 .. better if it was in a few days