Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[mbrothers]

Sorry I’m new to this but are people really worried about a single run at 12 days out? 

[Met4Cast]

Just now, mbrothers said:

Sorry I’m new to this but are people really worried about a single run at 12 days out? 

Yup.. that’s generally how it goes in here though, one dodgy run and winter is over. 

GEFS remain solid so far, I suspect the det will be an outlier in the extended. 

[frosty ground]

Just now, mbrothers said:

Sorry I’m new to this but are people really worried about a single run at 12 days out? 

January snowstorm is worried about every run. Most people like my self are just commenting on what we are seeing.

its an interesting run.

[Jason M]

GEFS at 168 are interesting. Quite a few looking to pull the high NW at earlier timeframe. Looks like models might be starting to pick up on something slightly different. 

Edited January 4 by Jason M

[mountain shadow]

3 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

And the heights are gone to our North just like that.....the ec46 said rest of Winter would be blocked....folks from a guy that's seen models flip at an hours notice take it from me this is not a done deal.....yes we are in with a great chance but don't tell family or friends because you could be left looking rather stupid.....note been there done that,....as ever more runs needed

I'm actually happier with this run as it gives a lot more snow IMBY than previous runs which were dry North Easterlies for me!

 

[Hotspur62]

Guessing the 18z is an outlier days 11-14? Very odd looking chart for 16th January ( would post if I knew how)

[January Snowstorm]

1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

Yup.. that’s generally how it goes in here though, one dodgy run and winter is over. 

GEFS remain solid so far, I suspect the det will be an outlier in the extended. 

Just commenting on what's churned out.....but you are right ensembles give a better trend.....

[frosty ground]

Just now, Jason M said:

GEFS at 168 our interesting. Quite a few looking to pull the high NW at earlier timeframe. Looks like models might be starting to pick up on something slightly different. 

The first trend is to pull the high north westwards earlier, not yet brought the cold in that much quicker that of course can change

[Kasim Awan]

We have to identify negatives where due however to me there are few negatives on the GFS very wedgey Atlantic and lows moving southwards. This combined with the blocking signal puts us in a very strong place. Again I do not think black and white so I still acknowledge the potential negatives.

[Andy8472]

What PV!

[weirpig]

Control at same time timeframe as det has better heights into Greenland 

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

And the heights are gone to our North just like that.....the ec46 said rest of Winter would be blocked....folks from a guy that's seen models flip at an hours notice take it from me this is not a done deal.....yes we are in with a great chance but don't tell family or friends because you could be left looking rather stupid.....note been there done that,....as ever more runs needed

still polar field blocking evident even though we may have temporarily lost the greenland greens and yellow 

[ScottSnow]

3 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

And the heights are gone to our North just like that.....the ec46 said rest of Winter would be blocked....folks from a guy that's seen models flip at an hours notice take it from me this is not a done deal.....yes we are in with a great chance but don't tell family or friends because you could be left looking rather stupid.....note been there done that,....as ever more runs needed

It is only one run but yes I agree it’s not a done deal.

All the backslapping the past few days has been a tad premature in my opinion.

Ive been a member on here for twenty years and I don’t tell anyone until it’s a couple of days away.

In the UK for cold weather if it can go wrong it will.

Hopefully this time is different and we see it through. It is only one run and there are going to be wobbles.

[Nick F]

20 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Those Greenland heights lasted fairly well!! 2 days was it Sunday to Tuesday....

Didn't this happen in December 2022? Big Greeny block modelled initially with bitter NE'ly flow and everyone got excited, then it vanished into thin air and we got the Atlantic in instead. But still too early to be worrying about this possibility. But there is a risk the block drifts too far west or weakens to the NW.

Edited January 4 by Nick F

[Jason M]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

We have to identify negatives where due however to me there are few negatives on the GFS very wedgey Atlantic and lows moving southwards. This combined with the blocking signal puts us in a very strong place. Again I do not think black and white so I still acknowledge the potential negatives.

This run illustrates the danger. 

That said, lots went wrong here and its hardly terrible 

 

[damianslaw]

13 minutes ago, ITSY said:

Good god I can’t actually believe I’m saying the words “West-Based” but this is the actual first run where I’ve seen it threatening to make an appearance, owing to the additional 3rd wave of High Pressure out of Canada, which subsequently drags the Greenland block slightly westward and forces a couple of lows to behave very weirdly over Greenland. This is then followed by a vintage GFS dartboard low - almost by default - so may not be a trend. But it is worth watching out for, however marginal the chances. Even then, this run, with its weird dartboard low, potentially ends up with a NWly snow maker so it may still be a case of reaching Rome via another route, which bodes well. As Catacol posted earlier, GFS is currently the 4th best performing model though at long range so let’s see where this route features in the pack before getting too bogged down in the mud. 
 

EDIT: the fact that after all of that we still end up here, speaks volumes about where we are. Happy hunting all - good night! 
 

A piece of the polar vortex dropping through UK, low pressure with polar low origins.. not sure this is where we will end up, probably a classic GFS18z outlier.. but shall see.

Very unstable and exceptionally snowy. 

[Jason M]

1 minute ago, Nick F said:

Didn't this happen in December 2022, big Greeny block modelled initially with bitter NE'ly flow and everyone got excited, then it vanished into thin air and we go the Atlantic in instead. But still too early to be worrying about this possibility. But there is a risk the block drifts too far west or weakens to the NW.

Weirdly, its the depth of the cold that plays against us because it goes from a trigger low to a huge area of low pressure. 

[Ice Day]

3 minutes ago, mbrothers said:

Sorry I’m new to this but are people really worried about a single run at 12 days out? 

You'll start to know the usual suspects.  It's happened every year on here for time immemorial 

That said, nothing is nailed at all, but it's been another highly encouraging day of model-watching.  Even this awful west-based NAO run is still producing very cold temperatures, all the way out to day 15

 

[frosty ground]

I’d bank this run, it will be gone soon enough thou.

end with a screaming easterly and scandi high?

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, Nick F said:

Didn't this happen in December 2022, big Greeny block modelled initially with bitter NE'ly flow and everyone got excited, then it vanished into thin air and we go the Atlantic in instead. But still too early to be worrying about this possibility. But there is a risk the block drifts too far west or weakens to the NW.

I'm now of the notion that this time round even if things drift North the Atlantic is looking very weak so any westerly push likely to be temporary and more likely just be indicative of descending phase in amplification cycles. Again not discounting a December 2021 / 2022 style backtrack but think the odds are a bit lower than these occassions.

[Wold Topper]

9 minutes ago, Anti-Mild said:

It's genuinely like you want this to all go horribly wrong! Are you Bill Farkin reincarnated? (that one was for the old BBC Snowwatch alumni)

I've been a member of the forum for almost 2 decades, and I've been burnt as much as anyone. This, like 2010 before, feels different  although i am still trying to reign in my excitement.

And even if it does go hugely wrong, or ends up a damp squib, enjoy the ride! These synoptics don't show up often, even in deepest FI.

 

Use the 'ignore' function, its easier

[ScottSnow]

To be honest though looking at the run we don’t end up too bad and it reminds me of December 2009. We know what led on from that.

 

[markw2680]

11 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

And the heights are gone to our North just like that.....the ec46 said rest of Winter would be blocked....folks from a guy that's seen models flip at an hours notice take it from me this is not a done deal.....yes we are in with a great chance but don't tell family or friends because you could be left looking rather stupid.....note been there done that,....as ever more runs needed

One model op run and it’s all gone, come on mate you and everyone else knows it ent simple like that

[Kentspur]

Since when was the GFS pub run the run to watch isnt it with less data/lower res than 0z and 12? Combined with verification stats post day 9/10 I'm waiting for the 0z runs to see if there's a new trend?

Edited January 4 by Kentspur

[Day 10]

1 minute ago, Wold Topper said:

Use the 'ignore' function, its easier

Great tool