Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Mark wheeler]

This scenario keeps getting churned out to some degree across the models . Good to see from the control. . No 2 day Greenie high here !!

[Lukesluckybunch]

Looking at the 850's around the 16th..there's barely any milder options!

[Allseasons-Si]

Look at this chaps,...the av mean at -7.4 from the 16th Jan

London not too shabby either at -6.1.

Edited January 4 by Allseasons-Si

[TallPaul]

1 hour ago, Mark Parsons said:

There would be a melt down on here lol......that video represents a proper cold spell which I remember well......

Me too Mark. I was 17, a typical Jack the lad... and as soon as I listened to (on the radio) "severe weather incoming, heavy snow combined with freezing temperatures - please stay indoors and only travel if essential".... I was outside in a flash and trekking (nearly a mile and a half) to my mate's house for cold-weather-antics!! 

Fast forward to now (34 years)... and I've never been so excited with what's potentially unfolding... 

[Snowman.]

God damn that is an insane control! Top 5 for me that.

No surprise by 18z, can always count on the pub run to cause a stir good or bad and we was due a little wobble on an OP run.

[Mark wheeler]

1 minute ago, Snowman. said:

God damn that is an insane control! Top 5 for me that.

No surprise by 18z, can always count on the pub run to cause a stir good or bad and we was due a little wobble on an OP run.

Still going for it .

[The Enforcer]

There's a 2m temperature range of 8C for London on 15th, which illustrates how volatile the situation is at that range:

That being said, the highest temperature is only 6C, so certainly couldn't be described as mild.

[Paul_1978]

3 hours ago, nick sussex said:

Can I be blunt . The JMA is a garbage  model. Really just ignore its ramblings regardless of what it shows .

When Ian Fergusson posted here, he suggested the Met Office actually quite like the JMA. 

[ScottSnow]

2 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

There's a 2m temperature range of 8C for London on 15th, which illustrates how volatile the situation is at that range:

That being said, the highest temperature is only 6C, so certainly couldn't be described as mild.

I don’t think there is any doubt it will get somewhat colder around the 15th, the question is the depth of cold and the length.

We have seen it go belly up plenty of times in the past.

Hopefully with all the background signals etc, and from my amateur view of us ‘being due one’, we get over the line this time and see a notable spell of weather on par with Jan 10, Mar 13, Dec 10 etc.

[Day_9]

1 hour ago, Nick F said:

Didn't this happen in December 2022? Big Greeny block modelled initially with bitter NE'ly flow and everyone got excited, then it vanished into thin air and we got the Atlantic in instead. But still too early to be worrying about this possibility. But there is a risk the block drifts too far west or weakens to the NW.

Yes, it literally disappeared after a single run and everything went mild and wet for the rest of the winter.  This place was beyond desperate.  But it’s because those events are so relatively rare that folk pin all hopes on anything that shows it - however far out.  It’s crazy when most know we’ve only got reasonable assurance up to 4/5 days out.  

[The 500]

Yes quite incredible…cold to east / north east  from us 

here’s a photo of Kristiansand this week on the south eastern tip of Norway …. Only about an hours flight away from us. 

similar photos to these will appear from the UK soon…..at least that’s what the models are showing up to now,….
 

 

Heavy snowfall in Norway

EPAIMAGES.COM

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epa11053319 View of a snow covered street during a snowfall in Kristiansand, Norway, 02 January 2024. People in Kristiansand are encouraged to have a home office due to the snow. EPA-EFE/TOR ERIK SCHRODER...

 

[lassie23]

Just now, Day_9 said:

Yes, it literally disappeared after a single run and everything went mild and wet for the rest of the winter.  This place was beyond desperate.  But it’s because those events are so relatively rare that folk pin all hopes on anything that shows it - however far out.  It’s crazy when most know we’ve only got reasonable assurance up to 4/5 days out.  

I will be convinced when it is snowing in my backyard lol 

[Woldsedge]

7 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

I will be convinced when it is snowing in my backyard lol 

Me too! There’s no straight road to snow in the UK. Just long and winding roads

[IanT]

10 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

I will be convinced when it is snowing in my backyard lol 

There are some posters here for whom even that won’t be enough…

[Rain All Night]

28 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

When Ian Fergusson posted here, he suggested the Met Office actually quite like the JMA. 

Here is some objective data on this subject:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/plwww_w_other_ts_upperair?area=Europe&day=5&score=Anomaly correlation

NCEP = GFS, CMC = GEM

Edited January 5 by RainAllNight

[SLEETY]

44 minutes ago, Allseasons-Si said:

My word,...look at those uppers on the control to our E/NE at day 11

 

Start of February 1963 redux there. Check the archives

Edited January 5 by SLEETY

[The Enforcer]

Please not GEFS18z P29:

Cold rain and more flooding.

[Kentspur]

7 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

Here is some objective data on this subject:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/plwww_w_other_ts_upperair?area=Europe&day=5&score=Anomaly correlation

Wow Just look how great UKMO is towards the end of this for the North Atlantic region! Didn't it first call this potential cold spell ahead of the flatter ECM and GFS too? Correct me if I'm wrong

[lassie23]

7 minutes ago, IanT said:

There are some posters here for whom even that won’t be enough…

or they will be too busy looking for a breakdown that they fail to spot two feet of snow outside their window

[Kentspur]

7 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Wow Just look how great UKMO is towards the end of this for the North Atlantic region! Didn't it first call this potential cold spell ahead of the flatter ECM and GFS too? Correct me if I'm wrong

Does this also suggest Christmas day its only worth checking UKMO model for any idea of the forecast for a few days away look at the very poor performance by all the other models. Assuming the balloon data that gets mentioned every Christmas period. Very intriguing!!

Edited January 5 by Kentspur

[geordiekev]

1 hour ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

Just a note, it’s perfectly plausible this goes west based because all winter the strat warming has been focussed towards Canada.

 West based solutions dont just come out of nowhere though, they evolve so at what T do you think that may be, serious Q? T420, way beyond FI, so a little bit too much emphasis, trying to go beyond the 2 week mark. 

Let's get the first blocks in 

 

[SLEETY]

57 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

When Ian Fergusson posted here, he suggested the Met Office actually quite like the JMA. 

56 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

When Ian Fergusson posted here, he suggested the Met Office actually quite like the JMA. 

JMA was only model that didn't sink the high like all the other models did they only reverted back a day or so ago, so we now get a decent Easterly with uppers approaching minus 10

[Geordiesnow]

Again the trends remains on the 18Z run for ridging to develop into Greenland at the 192 hours range. It looks too me a shallow shortwave may of developed from the Hudson Bay area which crosses over to Greenland which scuppers our ridge somewhat but a new ridge develops however too far west to affect our weather in a positive sence.

Really do need to emphasize any snowy weather is far from nailed at this stage but I really won't get too hung up on every details of each run.

The weather for the UK at the moment is one of turning drier, colder with a cold wind in the south before some anticyclonic gloom takes over with milder temperatures. What happens after that is very much up for debate.

[Mcconnor8]

-11c 850s into the SE on the ECM 18z on Monday and even -13c close by in France, colder than the 12z run.

Some light snow showers likely in the far corner.

Edited January 5 by Mcconnor8

[BlizzardOfoz]

Easterly with a North Easterly is Deffo gonna happen .Into next week with SW LP bumping into Cold air mass . We are on a cusp of a very cold Winter for at least 3 weeks .