Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Dennis]

MJO gfs today 

[Paul]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

Interesting to find out what MOGREPS is showing? Apologies if it's been posted, but it's hard to keep up with the volume of posts!

You can view them here

MOGREPS Model Viewer| Netweather.tv

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

 

[terrier]

 Think Paul Hudson & Liam Dutton have this summed up perfectly. They is nothing showing heavy snowfall or brutal cold in the output. Maybe a few have got carried away with the dark purples. Pretty standard fair next week sunny spells and some frost which I can live with after all the floods round here. But certainly nothing to worry about regarding deep cold & heavy snowfall that’s for sure. 

[Djdazzle]

Just now, Paul said:

You can view them here

MOGREPS Model Viewer| Netweather.tv

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

 

Thanks Paul.

[geordiekev]

3 hours ago, TEITS said:

Going to be honest I am disappointed with the commentary on here these past 24hrs. So much so I couldn't be bothered to post.

Lets begin by saying some of the model output these past 24hrs has been sensational and you could not draw any better charts for the UK. I would even go as far to say the best cold weather output I have seen. So when the bar has been set so high you are bound to see less impressive runs. However even the less impressive runs will deliver what many seek.

The GEFS/ECM mean continue to be fantastic, especially the ECM.

Some people have been referring to a W based NAO. The ECM mean at +240 does the opposite as to me a W based NAO is when the blocking backs W and allows SW,lys via atlantic low pressure systems moving in. The ECM mean is extending the block even further S. The ECM even causes a low pressure in the Atlantic to move W!!

Lets also not forget the argument that all cold spells downgrade is flawed. Even recently some were suggesting the GFS would be right and we wouldn't even have an E,ly next week as low pressure was supposed to track NE into Iceland and our HP sinking over the UK.

Moving onwards and at the moment even the transitional phase from the E,ly to a Greenland block is uncertain with regards to timing and detail and won't be resolved for another 72hrs. I could spend all day typing out various scenarios  beyond this for mid Jan onwards.

Overall a wintry outlook is most likely but could this be a convective N,ly or Bitter convective ENE,ly or will low pressure approach from the SW bringing a blizzard to some locations. Another option is low pressure in the atlantic phasing with the low that is moving S from the arctic, enhancing the bitter flow from the ENE.

Worth remembering that till today we only had GFS to model the 2nd cherry & GH evolution, which is now appearing on the D10s, so now we can start looking for concensus.

If this morning anything to go by,  suggest some find another hobby

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Interesting to find out what MOGREPS is showing? Apologies if it's been posted, but it's hard to keep up with the volume of posts!

[That ECM]

18 minutes ago, terrier said:

 Think Paul Hudson & Liam Dutton have this summed up perfectly. They is nothing showing heavy snowfall or brutal cold in the output. Maybe a few have got carried away with the dark purples. Pretty standard fair next week sunny spells and some frost which I can live with after all the floods round here. But certainly nothing to worry about regarding deep cold & heavy snowfall that’s for sure. 

Not seen any post in here that says different to that summary from now until mid month. What I take from that is even with all the info they have they are unsure of the outcome in just over a week. In tricky times we haven’t moved forward much in terms of forecasts. 

Edited January 5 by That ECM

[ScottSnow]

Just now, That ECM said:

Not seen any post in here that says different to that summary. 

Yeah next week was always forecast to be cold and dry. It’s the following week that is of interest…

[MATTWOLVES 3]

11 minutes ago, terrier said:

 Think Paul Hudson & Liam Dutton have this summed up perfectly. They is nothing showing heavy snowfall or brutal cold in the output. Maybe a few have got carried away with the dark purples. Pretty standard fair next week sunny spells and some frost which I can live with after all the floods round here. But certainly nothing to worry about regarding deep cold & heavy snowfall that’s for sure. 

We have not really been discussing severe cold and snow next week though,it was more of an indicator for towards mid month. And with this minor warming now taking place we could end up in a very good place if things land right. Yes next week colder with frosts and mainly dry...beyond this it COULD turn much colder. There's alot going on.

And in all honesty I've never ever heard Liam talk up significant cold even in 2018...infact I remember the BBC at the time saying this...yes turning colder..but a very dry colder! Things change very quickly.

Quick one on mogreps solid agreement for that early cold...but look at the end of the run with a little hint of the runs wanting to go colder again.. petty we can't see them out to day 10! I think they will gradually be colder again.

Edited January 5 by MATTWOLVES 3

[northwestsnow]

Well im back in work so little time to analyse the overnights ...

Steady as she goes for a week of drying / cooling and as I've posted previously ,we have to wait to see how the pieces fall..

The waiting to see how the pieces fall bit is quickly coming into view but until we have alignment on this we just got to hope for the best..

Edited January 5 by northwestsnow

[Dennis]

 still good signs midmonth EC 

[sheikhy]

@Battleground Snow any update on the ecm 06z mate?!!!!!!

[The Enforcer]

GEFS06z P15 is a decent run until 12th when the HP gets pushed south-eastwards:

Fortunately, there are plenty of outputs left for that to correct in a more favourable direction.

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

@Battleground Snow any update on the ecm 06z mate?!!!!!!

Happy to check in 2 mins

[Rain All Night]

33 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Interesting to find out what MOGREPS is showing? Apologies if it's been posted, but it's hard to keep up with the volume of posts!

It only goes out 8 days, which isn't quite far enough for the period of most interest... here are the 6z T850s for my south coast location...

[TSNWK]

13 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

@Battleground Snow any update on the ecm 06z mate?!!!!!!

At 90hrs which is a far as it goes.. very little in it! Just a smidge quicker in bringing the cold pool over south east 

[MJB]

36 minutes ago, terrier said:

 Think Paul Hudson & Liam Dutton have this summed up perfectly. They is nothing showing heavy snowfall or brutal cold in the output. Maybe a few have got carried away with the dark purples. Pretty standard fair next week sunny spells and some frost which I can live with after all the floods round here. But certainly nothing to worry about regarding deep cold & heavy snowfall that’s for sure. 

More of the fact as a professional meteorologist, we cannot jump to conclusions when looking at model output at T240. Our job is to consider all the possibilities and communicate this in a way to the general public that is easily understood. I think Liam Dutton does this perfectly in the tweet posted above.

Explanation from Ben Salisbury earlier.

[Battleground Snow]

17 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

@Battleground Snow any update on the ecm 06z mate?!!!!!!

Not much different by 144 either,

I do find that the 06z doesn't really differ too much from the 00z.

Seems to be a bigger changes in general going from 06z to 12z and 18z to 00z

[Mcconnor8]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

Not much different by 144 either,

I do find that the 06z doesn't really differ too much from the 00z.

Seems to be a bigger changes in general going from 06z to 12z and 18z to 00z

High doesn't look to be moving into Greenland as quickly though which isn't a great trend.

[The Enforcer]

8 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

It only goes out 8 days, which isn't quite far enough for the period of most interest... here are the 6z T850s for my south coast location...

Outside the range of MOGREPS is a little red flag in itself.

[Mike Poole]

18 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

At 90hrs which is a far as it goes.. very little in it! Just a smidge quicker in bringing the cold pool over south east 

ECM control 6z at T144, for those that want it:

Not very different at all to 0z at same time.

Just a thought related to the GFS 6z, before we get any deep cold to the UK from this Greenland high or Atlantic ridge scenario down to less than a week away (now earliest really day 10-11) , there are probably about 50 op runs from the big 4, and more than that for those who want to cherry pick the minor ones.  

Even if the cold spell is going to happen, a few of those runs are bound by probability to be stinkers with the amount of uncertainty at that range.

Edited January 5 by Mike Poole

[bluearmy]

Ec seasonal has updated (monthly won’t be available on ec website until Copernicus updates around 12th) 

feb retains high anomoly to the west and a trough to our east but no low anom 

you’d say that the slightly high anoms for slp and heights are a little close on the monthly mean but it’s workable. Highest anom on slp and heights just se of Greenland  (again workable) 

not much point in posting January because we can see ens out to the 20th and the 46 week 3 clears up the month 

[Mike Poole]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ec seasonal has updated (monthly won’t be available on ec website until Copernicus updates around 12th) 

feb retains high anomoly to the west and a trough to our east but no low anom 

you’d say that the slightly high anoms for slp and heights are a little close on the monthly mean but it’s workable. Highest anom on slp and heights just se of Greenland  (again workable) 

not much point in posting January because we can see ens out to the 20th and the 46 week 3 clears up the month 

Would be interesting to know what it’s take on the strat is - i.e. when it was run, was it before the next warming gathered momentum (probably).  We can check this on the Copernicus website when it comes out there.  I think the strat behaviour might be very important for February’s forecast.

[phil nw.]

The GFS operational runs earlier continue to give us the jitters.The difference with them compared to the others starts with a poor attempt at the second amplification day 7/8,the 00z run being the flattest.At least the 06run was better,hopefully it will move to the others again later as we get into near time.

The Gefs and Eps mean anomalies continue to be rock solid at day 10 and counting down to the ridging of heights towards Greenland.

 

What is also reassuring is the mean troughing underneath supporting the heights to the north.In essence no real change to the pattern although i am sure as Tamara said the high may wobble around.

Meanwhile i have been daily following current conditions further east in Europe  and its showing the real cold creeping west day by day.

 

As we have seen from the short term modeling it's on it.s way here from the weekend so we are on the verge now of a colder and drier few days.We now wait to see whether  the Greenland/Iceland heights or whatever we call  them can build in such a way to usher some of that vortex to our north east this way.

[phil nw.]

Let's keep on model discussion please all.

Any further discussions on the Met O or BBC outlooks please post over to here where the last few have gone.

Thanks.