Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[weathercold]

1 minute ago, iowpompeylee said:

I feel we have the comfort blanket of the UKMO longer outlook. UKMO looks good, and I’d rather follow them into battle than any of the others modes tbf 

Let’s hope so!

[mountain shadow]

ECM looks fine to me if you like a higher risk of snow with colder air sinking South against Atlantic Air pushing from the South.

Better than the GFS dry UK high offering for sure.

[Harsh Climate]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Lets wait for eps, if they start downgrading then it is time to worry, if they hold firm then we're still in with a good shout, must admit i was hoping to start firming up on something by now though, rather than just being in contention.

I think rather than 70-30% in favour of deep cold/snow 14th Jan + (yesterday) I think we are now 55% - 45% still in favour of Deep cold/snow from 14th Jan +. 

That's just my personal oppinion so don't shoot me. 

The models struggle with these set-ups and for me this is looking a very unusual set-up with the Atlantic eventually looking dead. 

[booferking]

4 minutes ago, Chesil View said:

No doubt there will be nervous nelly's getting worried. But in reality the 12z ecm is simply a slightly slower evolution to the same outcome as before and one that has always been in the ensemble envelope.

Take your pick you don't want the trend to weaking the heights in Greenland hopefully an outlier which we will see later but gfs op been showing this for a couple of days now.

Edited January 5 by booferking

[johncam]

3 minutes ago, Chesil View said:

No doubt there will be nervous nelly's getting worried. But in reality the 12z ecm is simply a slightly slower evolution to the same outcome as before and one that has always been in the ensemble envelope.

The problem is any slower it won't reach the south at all.Compared to a few days ago when the low 850' s cleared the south coast. 

[Geordiesnow]

12 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Very very sobering indeed!!!!i mentioned the danger of this and so did crewecold earlier on!!changes are not over yet though so i think we need to start fresh tomorrow and see if we can turn this around!!!i believe we still can!!!!

Lol you were the one that was writing the GFS off earlier! 

Okay a little disappointing the Greenland high signal has faded but it does not mean we can't remain on the cold side of the jet, as can be seen though, it is more slower but things are not too bad on this evening runs. Of course the signal could come back again and that can't be ruled out 

[Scandinavian High.]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

ECM looks fine to me if you like a higher risk of snow with colder air sinking South against Atlantic Air pushing from the South.

Better than the GFS dry UK high offering for sure.

Significant snow, risk colder air coming south weather systems coming up from the south-west battleground snow events. 

[sebastiaan1973]

On 03/01/2024 at 10:46, jules216 said:

Doesnt matter now. What will matter is the shortwaves which models will see later gaining influence. Only takes a small one to cut off the NE flow to merge through Európe and send cold to far north west. Been here a lot recently in winters sadly. Also MJO is out of synch phase 3 that does usually not mean European wide cold in January.

Yep, this is the problem for central and northwestern Europe alike. The low countries have besides that, the issue of wind from sea which warms the cold air too much. 

[Chesil View]

6 minutes ago, booferking said:

Take your pick you don't want the trend to weaking the heights in Greenland hopefully an outlier which we will see later but gfs op been showing this for a couple of days now.

Fair enough Booferking but in reality the hieghrs are more than enough to do what we want. The Atlantic is dead and the cold air is still coming south. Today's 12z actually holds out the hope of more snow for more people going forward than yesterday's

Edited January 5 by Chesil View

[Harsh Climate]

Just now, Scandinavian High. said:

Significant snow, risk colder air coming south weather systems coming up from the south-west battleground snow events. 

Yeah spot on.

[Alexis]

Some people need to give their head a wobble. Deep cold is just walking up the drive on the ECM. No need to panic because it hasn't knocked on the door.

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Lol you were the one that was writing the GFS off earlier! 

Okay a little disappointing the Greenland high signal has faded but it does not mean we can't remain on the cold side of the jet, as can be seen though, it is more slower but things are not too bad on this evening runs. Of course the signal could come back again and that can't be ruled out 

I still am lol!!!!!i did also say it can still turn around!!!but the fact ecm has got the weaker heights aswell makes me think gfs could be on to something!!but i still think its incorrect!!!

[Pembroke Dangler]

3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

ECM looks fine to me if you like a higher risk of snow with colder air sinking South against Atlantic Air pushing from the South.

Better than the GFS dry UK high offering for sure.

Exactly my thoughts, if we can get the low in the Azores and cold trough dropping down from the north to meet somewhere would get a decent snow event and I’m all about the risk reward, the uppers don’t need to be -10 for that -2 or below would suffice in this set up with frontal Snow, then watch the temps drop afterwards. 

[booferking]

1 minute ago, Chesil View said:

Fair enough Booferking but in reality the hieghrs are more than enough to do what we want. The Atlantic is dead and the cold air is still coming south.

Yea it's slowly coming but it's the delays i don't like hopefully not a trend setting in let's see where the mean sits definitely better than what's been on offer the last few years that's for sure.

[Harsh Climate]

1 minute ago, Alexis said:

Some people need to give their head a wobble. Deep cold is just walking up the drive on the ECM. No need to panic because it hasn't knocked on the door.

It's all looking toned down today on the charts, yesterday the cold runs where on steroids! Only one way it was going to go from there, and that's the more realistic watered down cold charts. To be fair they could go Excellent again and I would prefer that closer to the time than 10 days away lol.

[booferking]

Just now, Pembroke Dangler said:

Exactly my thoughts, if we can get the low in the Azores and cold trough dropping down from the north to meet somewhere would get a decent snow event and I’m all about the risk reward, the uppers don’t need to be -10 for that -2 or below would suffice in this set up with frontal Snow, then watch the temps drop afterwards. 

Would be nice to have a nice clean Greenland high and a clean northerly with snow showers for a few days then let the Atlantic come in for battleground situations later on.

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

I think rather than 70-30% in favour of deep cold/snow 14th Jan + (yesterday) I think we are now 55% - 45% still in favour of Deep cold/snow from 14th Jan +. 

That's just my personal oppinion so don't shoot me. 

The models struggle with these set-ups and for me this is looking a very unusual set-up with the Atlantic eventually looking dead. 

It really is a big eps now, purely because ops & GEFS have trended wrong way, if it wasn't the case then it would be no more important than any other suite, warning though - we are coming of a very high base on 0z eps so it'll be tough to maintain, so no panic if they're a very slight downgrade but anything more significant and............       Could really do with op being a mild 850mb outlier for Southern England at 240, which would mean other members see a more cleaner evolution.

[Metwatch]

Again I wouldn't get too bogged down over deterministic runs, the ensemble means are still solid, just waiting on the 12z EPS. Individual runs will try to work out what may happen given the latest data they are fed, but by no means they represent what will happen. Greenland heights still look to set up following the retrogression of heights around northern UK later next week.

The ECM 12z has heights not as robust and a little further west from Iceland compared to the GEM and GFS 12z, along with that Pacific ridge. Just a variation of what may occur rather than a given.

Of course it's very unlikely it won't be as incredible and long-lived as some of the coldest Januaries in recent times such as 1963, 1979. I don't think they will be beaten for their levels of cold any time soon, and more likely than not with 85' and 87' as well. However It's still the best shot we have at something noteworthy during the part of winter with the shortest daylength / weakest sun strength in over a decade / since 2010 nonetheless. Enjoy the chase I say rather than analysing single runs. The background forcings (+MT -> +AAM, MJO phase 1-2, weakened zonal winds in the stratosphere to troposphere, on top of EQBO / El Nino etc) have done their work for coinciding with the early - mid January period, it's now what we could easily get out of them following their work in the coming weeks!

 

Very good MOGREPS to say the least:

 

Edited January 5 by Metwatch

[Geordiesnow]

Just now, booferking said:

Would be nice to have a nice clean Greenland high and a clean northerly with snow showers for a few days then let the Atlantic come in for battleground situations later on.

Would be nice too see those set ups again but for whatever reason, it seems alot harder to get such a set up these days. 

Got to try and not get sucked in what each individual runs are showing and see the trends and they are showing for the UK a largely dry spell with an increasing snow risk mid month. How that set ups remains to be seen, it's just too far out at this stage.

[Lukesluckybunch]

19 minutes ago, on the coast said:

The cold is sinking South. I really dont see the problem.

 

I think it's because the set up doesn't look great..and looking at day 10 I think the Pattern would Collapse from there in my opinion

[Kentspur]

37 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Massive changes over the pole aswell on ecm with stronger heights!!not sure where all that strong ridging into greenland has dissapeared off to though in the last 24 hours!!!!i know some keep saying we dont need strong heights but this is making me kinda nervous lol!!

GFS the trend finder right? Despite its recent verification stats

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Not concerned about ecm at all..the NH looks good and the ops are just feeling about.

Mogreps 12s and I sense those temps are about to drop again..take a look at Norwich and you can see a more dramatic fall away..perhaps winds swinging more Netly! 

[CoxR]

I'm surprised to have not seen the alaskan ridge mentioned much in this forum as a potential point of concern regarding the longevity of the block. The ensemble suites, particularly GEFS have intensified the signal for the Alaskan ridge over the past 36 hours, pushing colder air into Greenland and North America, strenghening the jet stream as a result and making it difficult to maintain the high latitude block. For me this is the biggest complication to the potential cold spell, it looks like some cold weather is likely from around the 15th, but the longevity will depend largely upon whether the Alaskan Ridge signal continues to strengthen or diminishes as we approach T0, if it diminishes then it will likely make for a much cleaner evolution. I believe the Alaskan Ridge/ North Pacific Ridge is what scuppered the potential cold spell in December 2021

[damianslaw]

Variations on the same theme is what I see from the latest model runs, this is a blocked atlantic, with heights either just to our north and west preventing any significant cold from moving in from the NE, but cold all the same, or further NW allowing the cold trough to our NE to pool over the UK, possibly merging with low heights to our SW. 

Lets see where the latest ECM op sits in the ECM ensembles.

[Met4Cast]

I read the forum before checking the ECM and some are acting like it’s showing raging zonality & mild weather. I think some people need a reality check. 

It’s still blocked & increasingly cold. It’s also a single deterministic run, let’s wait for the ensembles shall we? 

GEFS ensembles were good, I’m sure we won’t see any significant movement from the EPS either. Chill out.