Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Kentspur]

25 minutes ago, booferking said:

Polar low moving north to south

I'd let the north hog this in fi as long as we get atleast a little dusting in the more reliable timeframe from the east this coming week hows that?

Edited January 5 by Kentspur

[Lukesluckybunch]

That low at 324..really digging east and South..expect some bitter air behind it!

[Met4Cast]

Slightly less amplified Pacific high on the GEFS mean & less energy around eastern Greenland, think we're seeing a little bit of an upgrade here.

I doubt this is going to be resolved tomorrow so try not to hang your hat on every single deterministic run, the ensembles will lead the way forward, more broadly the GEPS & EPS, the GFS/GEFS are not verifying particularly well at the moment. 

UKMO is a good bet too.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Bricriu said:

I am burnt out. Haha. I can't take anymore twists  and turns.  Is it true that less data goes into to this GFS run?

TBH I don't know..

As far as I'm concerned 18z has the latest data but as was posted earlier the retrogression process is complex so might not be settled until sun/Mon.. 

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Don't forget it only started at day 10 though..

Yer but don’t forget before this it is surface cold and frosty so could be a decent spell with below average temps before the real cold kicks in

[Garthvader]

1 minute ago, lorenzo said:

Beast from the errr .. West..

My giddy Aunt!!

[booferking]

Lol major polar low drops from south east from Iceland through ireland heading south East whole country covered.

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yer but don’t forget before this it is surface cold and frosty so could be a decent spell with below average temps before the real cold kicks in

That's true ice cold

[bluearmy]

That low won’t happen 

good ol fashioned pub run !

[northwestsnow]

Mean 168

[booferking]

Just now, bluearmy said:

That low won’t happen 

good ol fashioned pub run !

Lol it would shut the country if it did.

[markw2680]

Nice that was to look at but you never know we might be seeing short term upgrades come the morning. I feel the better the earlier easterly flow the better it will all be longer term, you never know there might be some snow coming in from the east early next week as a little teaser 

[damianslaw]

Had a feeling GFS18z would produce a very snowy arctic outbreak..

[Purga]

There'll be more than a few Swearing AGAIN*d off southerners if this verifies.

[on the coast]

Just now, bluearmy said:

That low won’t happen 

good ol fashioned pub run !

The morning Op's run will look so different. Lovely to look at though tonight.

 

[PsychedelicTony]

2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Lol major polar low drops from south east from Iceland through ireland heading south East whole country covered.

Polar Lows aren't picked up until they form I think?

 

[Eagle Eye]

It's at day 13 so isn't going to happen realistically but if it did, I'd be very very happy just 6 days before my birthday. The pub run is clearly quite tipsy tonight and I'm liking it. Not much needed to be delved into.

 

Edited January 5 by Eagle Eye

[Metwatch]

The GFS 18z is one of them runs which are pure insanity and produces heavy snowfalls then brutally cold surface temperatures afterwards, but are quite unlikely to come to fruition. It reminds me of a few that were thrown out in December 2021 and 2022. December 2022, that sort of came to reality with that snow event for central southern England before staying very cold over the snowpack.

[Lukesluckybunch]

-10 mean in the southeast on monday!

[Johnp]

One thing I noticed on the poorer GFS runs was this shortwave breaking off from the Atlantic low at day 6/7.

The poorer runs this then headed east in and interfered with the developing GH. With the better runs it veers north westwards and helps inflate the high. 

Just one other thing to look out for. 

 

[easton888]

When I was a kid there was a pub that my dad took us to a lot that had a sign above the bar that read 'FREE BEER TOMORROW'. As a 5 year old I didn't get it, but my dad explained it to me. 

 

If this forum was a pub sign it would read 'SNOW AT DAY 10'

[frosty ground]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That low won’t happen 

good ol fashioned pub run !

Which one

[northwestsnow]

Mean looks fine 180

[Purga]

Actually, the importance of having a cold snow covered Europe next door as well as our own, is not to be discounted

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, on the coast said:

The morning Op's run will look so different. Lovely to look at though tonight.

 

The general theme of the run is fine within the ens context 

The way that low forms and then deepens headed back towards us won’t happen - not the general tenet of the run - that’s fine