Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Mike Poole]

And at the end of all of that we have this:

[Lukesluckybunch]

Guys great news..the op is almost at the top of the pack on the 15th..these ensembles look really good early on!

[Ali1977]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

Guys great news..the op is almost at the top of the pack on the 15th..these ensembles look really good early on!

And a very warm strat in FI

[Battleground Snow]

23 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

A long way off but I am slightly concerned by the EPS, that's a lot of spread with a clustering towards something much milder in the extended, albeit the colder cluster still larger.

Would really like to see this pack tightening across all models on todays runs, we're in a little bit of a limbo at the moment.

Do you think that because the EPS are run at the same high resolution as the OP, that it sometimes times causes them all to see the wrong solution early on in the run?

It always seems like the mean and the op are very close up to around 144, where as the gfs can be quite different to it's mean at that point.

It's quite amazing the difference in the cold pool distribution at 72 hours compared to the UKMO, but then again I guess we only notice it because it's over the UK, when it's a micro detail globally 

Edited January 6 by Battleground Snow

[BleakMidwinter]

14 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

I like it! Siro! It sounds menacing! 

I liked the *Ingham Singularity* but I can't remember who suggested it... 

[Andy8472]

MOGREPS not too shabby

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Do you think that because the EPS are run at the same high resolution as the OP, that it sometimes times causes them all to see the wrong solution early on in the run?

It always seems like the mean and the op are very close up to around 144, where as the gfs can be quite different to it's mean at that point.

It's quite amazing the difference in the cold pool disruption at 72 hours compared to the UKMO, but then again I guess we only notice it because it's over the UK, when it's a micro detail globally 

It is an interesting idea.  The new EPS is the first time an ensemble set has been run at the same resolution as the op, so I don’t think we know the answer.  There is this idea that higher resolution can cause an error early on mean after that they just compute the wrong solution more accurately.  I am not sure I wholly buy it, maybe after the new EPS has been running for some time we may get an answer.

On the GFS side, I think there may be other differences between the GFS and the GEFS apart from resolution - I think they both now use the FV3 core, but the GFS did get an upgrade last year which most felt was a retrograde step, not sure if GEFS has this or not.

[NorthYorksWeather]

6z GEFS Short ensembles for my location in North Yorkshire. Worth noting at day 7 both the OP and control are both quite slow at bringing on the cold air compared to many other members. Perhaps could see a quicker evolution to cold on this afternoons runs. 
 

 

[AO-]

Great mean at day 9, the 15th. Possibilities for a Northeasterly later on. 

[Kentspur]

While many are looking in fi still. In the nearer term what's Icons take via Ventusky. Seems like a mid Kent&Medway Clipper becomes a Thames streamer followed by some light wintry showers making it further SW to parts of the south coast and IOW then onwards to the likes of Devon eventually. For my part of Kent Surrey Sussex/S Essex and London it Definitely looks an upgrade particularly during Monday night and lasts longer too!

Edited January 6 by Kentspur

[joggs]

No denying,that is a great run. Let's hope we can keep on the line of this. Still alot if water to pass under the bridge. Hopefully this time tomorrow this run will keep the same line of thought.

[ICE COLD]

Well let’s hope we have a memorable cold spell like the gfs and then totally take down the pv ready for feb

[Jason M]

So, as we were this morning.

Decent chance of a northerly around day 8/9/10.  Longevity doesn't look great but anything beyond day 10 is utter speculation and the whole situation may come up with some surprises for better or worse.

Main observations I have

1. 'IF' it all goes Pear Shaped I still think it will be because it goes west based. 

2. Impressive cold pool early next week. If only air pressure wasn't so high, it could have dumped a whole lot of snow!

So, things still look good but usual caveats apply. Key to longevity after 15th will be if we can get some heights over Scandi. Its proved well nigh impossible in recent years but I wouldn't rule it out.

 

 

[Scott Ingham]

10 minutes ago, BleakMidwinter said:

I liked the *Ingham Singularity* but I can't remember who suggested it... 

I liked that as well! it was posted a few days ago yeah I can’t remember by who!

[TSNWK]

When does ecm control come out.  Goes out to 144. Be good if it's better at day 6 than this mornings before we start the 12z

[Andy8472]

0!

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

When does ecm control come out.  Goes out to 144. Be good if it's better at day 6 than this mornings before we start the 12z

1pm behind the paywalls

2pm on meteociel 

[Jason M]

6 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

While many are looking in fi still. In the nearer term what's Icons take via Ventusky. Seems like a mid Kent&Medway Clipper becomes a Thames streamer followed by some light wintry showers making it further SW to parts of the south coast and IOW then onwards to the likes of Devon eventually. For my part of Kent Surrey and London it Definitely looks an upgrade particularly during Monday night and lasts longer too!

Considering just how high air pressure will be that's actually quite impressive. If it were around 1025 rather than 1030 -1035 Thames Estuary would be looking at a pretty impressive snow event. As it is, just flurries with an odd light covering.

[Cambrian]

6z GFS op at day 10 shows the freezing level at 0m and sub-528 dam thickness throughout the UK and Ireland. A rare sight. Parts of Scotland are at sub-510 dam.

  

Looks a bit nippy. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Gfs op not even a cold outlier

[Met4Cast]

20 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Do you think that because the EPS are run at the same high resolution as the OP, that it sometimes times causes them all to see the wrong solution early on in the run?

It always seems like the mean and the op are very close up to around 144, where as the gfs can be quite different to it's mean at that point.

It's quite amazing the difference in the cold pool disruption at 72 hours compared to the UKMO, but then again I guess we only notice it because it's over the UK, when it's a micro detail globally 

Good question.. honestly that's not something I know the answer to. I have very limited knowledge on how modelling actually works beyond the basic "observational data in >> forecast out". It's an interesting idea though and I'm sure @Paulmay be able to answer the question as he knows a fair amount about how modelling actually works. 

In theory you'd think higher resolution would be better at picking up small lows etc vs lower resolution, but I guess if it goes wrong then it could go very wrong? Not sure!

[Met4Cast]

AAM tendency is beginning to turn +ve again thanks to +MT and this will continue with a return to +FT as the MJO progresses eastwards.It seems likely we could see the Atlantic returning 20-25th (ish) but this undercutting cold air could lead to disruptive high impact snowfall events.

Towards late Jan/early Feb +ve AAM tendency combined with MJO moving back into blocking phases suggests a return to high latitude blocking & the potential for further cold outbreaks.

I'm skeptical on how much "mild" air will actually return across the UK and for how long. It could just be a "blip" in an otherwise colder dominated pattern.

Will have a lot more time tomorrow/Monday to look at this more closely.

[sheikhy]

16 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

1pm behind the paywalls

2pm on meteociel 

Will it finally come in line for monday?!!!how many times have i said that to you now!!!

[Neilsouth]

20 minutes ago, Jason M said:

 

2. Impressive cold pool early next week. If only air pressure wasn't so high, it could have dumped a whole lot of snow!

 

 

 

 

Well there's also a chance of troughs and polar lows in the mix, with such extreme cold further north!

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Will it finally come in line for monday?!!!how many times have i said that to you now!!!

It's huge at 2 in my view. For me will set the scene for the rest of the 12z one way of other   If ecm 06z 144ctrl can move away to something better than 00z ecm