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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

Catacol

By Catacol
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

This thread is for model related chat and discussion only.
Please head over to the Winter chat thread if your post isn't about the models. If you'd like localised weather chat, make sure you've joined your regional group. Or if you just want to moan about the weather or models, or would like to ramp up whatever may be on the way - there is now a dedicated ramp and moans thread.

Please use the insightful reaction on posts you think should be copied to the model highlights thread.

As ever, please keep to the community guidelines, the guiding principles of which are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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Harsh Climate Accomplished

Harsh Climate

Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
Posted

GFS 288h

GFSOPEU12_288_1.thumb.png.5760f6a0020363bf86c3dc36c97d0d1c.png

Looks like the cold 500s are just being tipped from the NE over the UK. Increasingly unstable, would expect disturbances to break out.

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AO- Aficionado

AO-

Posted
  • Location: Leeuwarden. Friesland, the Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Cold with a lot of snow
  • Location: Leeuwarden. Friesland, the Netherlands
Posted
1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

This has to be widespread  -10 / -15 lows over snow coverage and -20 in prime spots..,

slack -8 air with a gentle northley feed.

image.thumb.png.5c317bf05abb6c3048effeb86a16f8d2.png

Raw ouput says no, for what it is worth. -10 if to be corrected would be my guess. 

GFSOPEU12_276_5.thumb.png.da1d4c22d57b2ec3023712f9cd464573.png

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

Let’s see where ecm sits but I would suggest these are beyond the reliable. Not the overall nhp but what any detail will be.

IMG_0826.png

IMG_0825.png

IMG_0828.png

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

This has to be widespread  -10 / -15 lows over snow coverage and -20 in prime spots..,

slack -8 air with a gentle northley feed.

image.thumb.png.5c317bf05abb6c3048effeb86a16f8d2.png

It really does, amazing chart. Lots of snow cover I reckon - brutal temps for the U.K. 👌🥶⛄️

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Popular Post
Posted

My concern is my flight to Salzburg for my ski trip to Kaprun 20/1/24.

 

BFTP

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
Just now, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

My concern is my flight to Salzburg for my ski trip to Kaprun 20/1/24.

 

BFTP

Good plan b though 👌

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WYorksWeather Accomplished

WYorksWeather

Posted
  • Location: West Yorkshire
  • Location: West Yorkshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, AO- said:

Raw ouput says no, for what it is worth. -10 if to be corrected would be my guess. 

GFSOPEU12_276_5.thumb.png.da1d4c22d57b2ec3023712f9cd464573.png

To be fair those are 2m temperatures, which probably don't take sufficient account of geography. Stations in frost hollows or in the presence of snow cover will probably be quite a lot colder.

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Neilsouth Experienced

Neilsouth

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
Posted

Does anyone know what model the BBC use for their forecasts? As looking at the EC/GFS/UKMO I don't see a low pressure coming up from the south increasing temps, and later "Wintry Showers" from the north? 

Clipboard01.jpg

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
Just now, frosty ground said:

image.thumb.png.a5ecc014d91799b504425fc55442a51d.png
this is probably the best run in a while showing longevity 

Illustrates nicely metoffice met office mid range.. impossible to nail details there beyond 72

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Harsh Climate Accomplished

Harsh Climate

Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
Posted
1 minute ago, WYorksWeather said:

To be fair those are 2m temperatures, which probably don't take sufficient account of geography. Stations in frost hollows or in the presence of snow cover will probably be quite a lot colder.

I think with all the moisture in the ground, there would be some pretty bad freezing fog about, wouldn't be supprised with some places no higher than -2c during the day.

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Pembroke Dangler Aficionado

Pembroke Dangler

Posted
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in winter Warm Sunny Summer
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
Posted
1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

image.thumb.png.a5ecc014d91799b504425fc55442a51d.png
this is probably the best run in a while showing longevity 

Snow would be widespread and disruptive with this set up low spinning up fronts in to the dense cold air wow let’s have it. 👌

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

The 12z GFS in FI shows the first-time potential for wedges rather than a collapsing GH:

image.thumb.png.3f5730b04bc3716aa5b884c7384226b7.pngimage.thumb.png.f74c0c75de44d4147a09c267781aa0ef.png

That would be the best case for the UK once the GH dissipates.

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Spah1 Accomplished

Spah1

Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
Posted
17 minutes ago, terrier said:

Unfortunately to me it looks raw damp and drizzly more than white. 😩

NH profile 👍

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AO- Aficionado

AO-

Posted
  • Location: Leeuwarden. Friesland, the Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Cold with a lot of snow
  • Location: Leeuwarden. Friesland, the Netherlands
Posted
9 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

It really does, amazing chart. Lots of snow cover I reckon - brutal temps for the U.K. 👌🥶⛄️ 

Only Schotland sees snow on that chart.

GFSOPUK12_276_25.png

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Alexis Seasoned

Alexis

Posted
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
Posted
Just now, AO- said:

Only Schotland sees snow on that chart.

GFSOPUK12_276_25.png

To be fair the snow cover charts are always always wrong. And crap.

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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted
Just now, AO- said:

Only Schotland sees snow on that chart.

GFSOPUK12_276_25.png

Trying to find snow that far out is like trying to pin the tail on a donkey when spinning on a roundabout 

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Garthvader Enthusiast

Garthvader

Posted
  • Location: Wigan,North west England 38m asl
  • Location: Wigan,North west England 38m asl
Posted
1 minute ago, AO- said:

Only Schotland sees snow on that chart.

GFSOPUK12_276_25.png

12 days away!

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted
6 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

Does anyone know what model the BBC use for their forecasts? As looking at the EC/GFS/UKMO I don't see a low pressure coming up from the south increasing temps, and later "Wintry Showers" from the north? 

Clipboard01.jpg

Not Met Office anymore…..

 

BFTP

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Paul Maestro

Paul

Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
Posted
13 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

To be fair those are 2m temperatures, which probably don't take sufficient account of geography. Stations in frost hollows or in the presence of snow cover will probably be quite a lot colder.

They absolutely do take into account the geography - the models have heights, surface type, area type (urban vs countryside etc) built into them. But, they are bound by their resolution when it comes to that - so the GFS at 0.25 degrees will be averaging the geographical nature of the grid square over that, which is about 17km or so in our neck of the woods. So, it's not going to pick up small features, frost hollows and the like. 

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AO- Aficionado

AO-

Posted
  • Location: Leeuwarden. Friesland, the Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Cold with a lot of snow
  • Location: Leeuwarden. Friesland, the Netherlands
Posted
1 minute ago, Garthvader said:

12 days away!

Not my point. If these charts verify, statements like the ones made are incorrect. 

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SollyOlly Rising Star

SollyOlly

Posted
  • Location: Solihull
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal (but not excessive heat); love cold winters!
  • Location: Solihull
Posted
27 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

UKMO 168 - Two words, 'yes please'!!!

image.thumb.png.946761d863baff25a7e62e1d88e00194.png

That chart looks like a very angry fish to me...ok, I've started on the beers a bit early today!

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Bristawl Si Maestro

Bristawl Si

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, S Glos, nr Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, S Glos, nr Bristol
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

Does anyone know what model the BBC use for their forecasts? As looking at the EC/GFS/UKMO I don't see a low pressure coming up from the south increasing temps, and later "Wintry Showers" from the north? 

Clipboard01.jpg

Meteogroup provide weather forecasts for the Beeb; have done since 2018.

Latest info i can find from Meteogroup, as below:

MeteoGroup uses a combination of three weather prediction models to arrive at the best result. These are the European model (operated by ECMWF), the American model (operated by US NCEP) namely GFS, and the British model (produced by UKMO).

Edited by Bristawl Si
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