Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Joseph Hudson]

Just now, Mcconnor8 said:

ECM starts rolling out at 6 but useful times around 6:20-6:30

thanks

[BarnetBlizzard]

9 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

GEFS looks beautiful, only a couple of ensembles that don't bring in very cold air now and more deep cold runs I think with better longevity, roll on ECM.

The GEFS mean isn't actually as good as 6z. GEM Mean on the other hand is brilliant at +162:

 

 

and at +186... even better:

 

Edited January 6 by BarnetBlizzard

[JimBob]

4 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

Most just follow ECM det run, ignore apps lmao

I know a lot of “weatherists” is that a word?! Don’t like them, but has shown next weeks short dip in temperatures for a while now, and equally a rise back start of next week. 

Edited January 6 by JimBob

[carinthian]

9 hours ago, carinthian said:

Thanks a nice winter chart that and is only a few hours away ! ( Will there be more upgrades I ask in the shorter term ) ,  A prolonged cold outlook from the models this morning UKM0/GEM/GFS. Not sure about ECM run this morning, defo throws doubt into the equations but to my eye does not look correct. Anyway , the GEM extented chart ( below ) goes on and shows some amazing cold around Iceland in its extended. Think I have never seen such low values that far south. Whether British Isles taps into that sort of feed is another question but certainly the models continue to show potential for a very cold ❄ Mid -Winter period.

C

Evening all from a cold foggy Altenmarkt. The UKMO/GFS models this evening continue to show advance of a marked Arctic Front to make some headway from next weekend into The British Isles. A second wave shown on GFS chart below and earlier on GEM above has some brutal cold ❄ heading towards Scotland from The Arctic. Possible record cold temp based on that chart especially if snow cover persists but we all know things can get complicated that far out. However, these types of charts are now being shown on a regular basis .

C

C

Edited January 6 by carinthian

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, JimBob said:

I know a lot of “weatherists” is that a word?! Don’t like them, but has shown next weeks short dip in temperatures for a while now, and equally a rise back start of next week. 

If ecm behaves this evening the apps will drop the temperatures.. data drived simply by pulling raw data from latest run.. past two ecms have been pants.. hence the uptick you mention 

[Allseasons-Si]

GEPS mean and control at day 8

 

Edited January 6 by Allseasons-Si
typo

[JimBob]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

If ecm behaves this evening the apps will drop the temperatures.. data drived simply by pulling raw data from latest run.. past two ecms have been pants.. hence the uptick you mention 

Ok thanks. 

[lawrenk]

22 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Just a quick one from me before I go out on the lash for my 50th. It's still a few days away but it has to be done on the Saturday before lol . Fantastic output on the 12z runs. This is getting really exciting now...... Ecm will come to it's senses I'm sure . Keep those new year's wishes of love and peace for everybody in your hearts. It really is a messed up world and it needs that more than ever at the moment ❤❤

Have a great evening.

[AO-]

Not a really great mean at day 11 imo. Uncertainty on the through over Canada and where it is heading. Also the vortex over the Barentsz sea is heading West between day 9 and 11. Nothing to worry about atm, but there is a lot of water to pass under the bridge. Let's see how EC is playing it tonight as it has backtracked a little this morning. 

[BarnetBlizzard]

1 minute ago, AO- said:

Not a really great mean at day 11 imo. Uncertainty on the through over Canada and where it is heading. Also the vortex over the Barentsz sea is heading West between day 9 and 11. Nothing to worry about atm, but there is a lot of water to pass under the bridge. Let's see how EC is playing it tonight as it has backtracked a little this morning. 

GEM Mean though...

[Allseasons-Si]

What a cracking day ten mean from the GEPS.

Edited January 6 by Allseasons-Si

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-Si said:

What a cracking mean day ten from the GEPS.

Cracking outs throughout .. but we still need a compactive set of raws.. and no prizes 4 guessing which 1 rolls nxt…. However a stern shout finally for solid uk winter Synoptics!!

[Met4Cast]

Much much better clustering of cold from the GEFS! I hope we see an equally tightening up from the EPS This evening. 

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-Si said:

What a cracking day ten mean from the GEPS.

That is amazing , cmon ECM

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

That is amazing , cmon ECM

Only my opinion but EC det and clusters tonight are really really important..

[Eagle Eye]

The switch between the 14th and 15th is a ridiculously quick snap to cold and that day has pretty much always been the key day on most runs where we see it start to get a lot colder. It's not stayed out in FI and the most it's jumped in dates really is to the 16-17th on a model consensus but generally the 15th has been signalled for a while. 9 days away, next week is going to have some crucial model runs. 

[SollyOlly]

1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

Much much better clustering of cold from the GEFS! I hope we see an equally tightening up from the EPS This evening. 

Yes, looks much better doesn't it, lower risk with that clustering. We could do with the cold to bring the CET back down to more normal levels...!

[Mark Parsons]

8 minutes ago, AO- said:

Not a really great mean at day 11 imo. Uncertainty on the through over Canada and where it is heading. Also the vortex over the Barentsz sea is heading West between day 9 and 11. Nothing to worry about atm, but there is a lot of water to pass under the bridge. Let's see how EC is playing it tonight as it has backtracked a little this morning. 

The Met Office extended forecast seems to differ to the charts being shown.........

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Mark Parsons said:

The Met Office extended forecast seems to differ to the charts being shown.........

Exeter = GEM mean.

[TSNWK]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Only my opinion but EC det and clusters tonight are really really important..

I'm with you.. I still can't cut loose after past two ecm ops...

Might need to pour a stiff drink to settle the nerves;)

[WYorksWeather]

56 minutes ago, Paul said:

They absolutely do take into account the geography - the models have heights, surface type, area type (urban vs countryside etc) built into them. But, they are bound by their resolution when it comes to that - so the GFS at 0.25 degrees will be averaging the geographical nature of the grid square over that, which is about 17km or so in our neck of the woods. So, it's not going to pick up small features, frost hollows and the like. 

Sorry, yes I wasn't clear enough, I'm aware that they take geography and terrain into account in that sense. My point is they don't do it on a small enough scale to account for smaller features.

[Eagle Eye]

Every model run is important but also unimportant to be honest. Arguing one being more important as the other might make a little sense but really every run should be important as it offers a view into the scenarios possible, at this range that's really it. 

[Harsh Climate]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Only my opinion but EC det and clusters tonight are really really important..

I think the models have had their little wobble, I am expecting upgrades 

[Spah1]

Who’s ready for the ECM !!!!

NWS? 

[Mcconnor8]

Well the GEM ensemble seems pretty certain the 14th is the day of arrival for the cold in the South.