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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

Catacol

By Catacol
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

This thread is for model related chat and discussion only.
Please head over to the Winter chat thread if your post isn't about the models. If you'd like localised weather chat, make sure you've joined your regional group. Or if you just want to moan about the weather or models, or would like to ramp up whatever may be on the way - there is now a dedicated ramp and moans thread.

Please use the insightful reaction on posts you think should be copied to the model highlights thread.

As ever, please keep to the community guidelines, the guiding principles of which are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted

I’ll be extremely surprised if we go from this to this in 120 hours, yes it’s possible but these huge HP cells tend to be very stubborn in winter, I’d be more worried about the high pressure lingering in our locale than being blown away as the ECM shows

IMG_5630.gif

IMG_5629.gif

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
1 minute ago, mulzy said:

Add MOGREPS to that list. Solida indications it will turn colder day 8 and beyond.

image.thumb.png.f3a37e1a6765910772e6688fbfd2fca7.png

Wow and that's in the south and we know any drop in 850 is from north and  not east.. ecm at same time is at least 10 degrees warming in South at 192

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Vikos Seasoned

Vikos

Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
Posted

Still have a SSW in the barrel… some need to calm and chill a bit. 2010 EC had some similar difficulties with placement of H and L…

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January Snowstorm Accomplished

January Snowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
Posted
Just now, sheikhy said:

Is it just me not worried about this evenings ecm 12z?!!i dunno why but it aint bothering me lol!!!normally it would ruin my evening and all sorts but i reallly am not too disheartened!!!on to the 00zs....!!!

I agree, too much on cold happening from all sources! Experience helps in these circumstances and I remember all previous cold spells like 2010 etc. I'll sum up my experience in one line "If John Holmes is going for it, you can be 110% certain it will happen!!"

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smith25 Contributor

smith25

Posted
  • Location: Braintree, Essex
  • Location: Braintree, Essex
Posted

By Monday the ECM will fall in line.  Straight after that the GFS will back track for a couple of days.  That's what usually happens at least!.

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Metwatch Maestro

Metwatch

Posted
  • Location: Coventry, 96m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow in winter, thunderstorms, warmth, sun any time!
  • Location: Coventry, 96m asl
Posted (edited)

If the ECM det (and also the GEM 12z) was showing what it shows at T+120 rather than T+168-192 with that shortwave over Iceland then I would be more worried. Still a few days left to go for things to be resolved. As always with the complexity of model watching nothing is a given but at the same time any solution is also plausible.

Taking a probablitisic approach (as again nothing is certain) and the ECM det still looks to be the least likely to come to fruition. Ensemble means and the NOAA charts look solid with strong signal for Greenland heights forming = a straight route for the colder airmass and very low thickness levels to reach the UK. More runs and time is needed as always.

Edited by Metwatch
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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

Oh well Tomorrow is another day!

image.thumb.png.d57751240fc66961bca294cabed1e68a.png Back to my other more rewarding pastime...Nessie watch!🐉👀

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easton888 Explorer

easton888

Posted
  • Location: Staines
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Staines
Posted

I'm about to ask the most noob question ever on here, apologies in advance. Re. a possible Thames streamer event on the 8th- does the Thames being in serious flood affect snowfall totals? I live in Staines and the river is over the roads in many places, it's incredible to see. Nearby Chertsey is getting flooded again. Just wondered if it would affect the streamer at all.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
7 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

It's not a good NH profile, no blocking on our side of the Arctic, Alaskan/Pacific ridges are overrated and as others alluded too usually more negative for winter cold for us.

The frustration for me it looks like shortwaves are going to rear their ugly head again in terms of stopping Greenland ridging which makes things harder for the cold to arrive.

The thing is it tallies with the strat forecasts which have moderate warming working around the other side of the NH, pushing the SPV towards Greenland.

It’s why I tried to stress the importance of the split…Some people wouldn’t have it though.

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
6 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Absolutely 0 support for ECM from mogreps . I am still happy .

DD815C65-5E89-498B-B558-D6993EE3D39A.png

ED371592-EB0A-49EA-8A4C-3D14D5D53665.png

ED122F6A-040F-4C41-BAD6-8C5827136BB6.png

9591328A-F316-4D08-9FAB-FBD77E349866.png

84920884-BF79-46A0-B843-50D31C6347B9.png

This pretty much says ignore the EC Op - surely a big outlier by day 9/10 - where the ENS should have us in -8c uppers or colder. 

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Bricriu Seasoned

Bricriu

Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland
Posted
16 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

If Ireland is broadly mild and wet it'll take some exceptional synoptics to produce cold in the UK.

Don't take this post out of context I am merely referring to the synoptic pattern forecast in his post.

I can remember several occasions where we went mild but it stayed cold in the UK with heavy snow there while we had rain.  Although I see what you are saying in a robust zonal  set up the UK would eventually  go mild too.

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted
9 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Is it just me not worried about this evenings ecm 12z?!!i dunno why but it aint bothering me lol!!!normally it would ruin my evening and all sorts but i reallly am not too disheartened!!!on to the 00zs....!!!

In all honesty its pointless getting wound up over. The nhp is looking better than it has for many a year esp being January. There is extreme cold to the north and east. If your going to analise every single run on all the models then your in trouble. Sometimes less is more esp if your awaiting ice flows and polar bears marching south on the m1. Relax🙏🙏

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

In order of significance what's happening over the UK is first when cold spell sets in. Nhp then is not as relevant.

Of course. The screenshots you sent were to demonstrate not cold over the uk and the cold spell not set in.🤣 

Therefore it’s important to see why via the nhp. I’ll repeat what I said earlier.

There are very few gefs that resemble the nhp of the ecm at day 10. I didn’t say a number of the gefs had higher 850’s. 
 

The point being that I didn’t have much faith in T240 nhp of the ecm.

 

 

Edited by That ECM
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Bricriu Seasoned

Bricriu

Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland
Posted
2 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

The thing is it tallies with the strat forecasts which have moderate warming working around the other side of the NH, pushing the SPV towards Greenland.

It’s why I tried to stress the importance of the split…Some people wouldn’t have it though.

True. A displacement or stretched vorted is rarely good for cold  over us, there will nearly always be too much residual energy left in  the wrong place that will scupper a cold spell.

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Mark wheeler Maestro

Mark wheeler

Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
Posted
4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

This pretty much says ignore the EC Op - surely a big outlier by day 9/10 - where the ENS should have us in -8c uppers or colder. 

Does anyone know how mogreps verifies compared to Ecm?

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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted
23 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

GEFS12Z to me looked to be 5050 on the potent cold northeasterly. Atleast 12 or so backed the ECM if not milder.

image.thumb.png.6fd61fe936e36f9a845bd4c2ff2b2fe1.png

Mean at 240 

image.thumb.png.0eb84ad694e8167d6a4aa31fd2d9ffa1.png

image.thumb.png.ed96517a4c506c62ec2f0a92f662f634.png

image.thumb.png.580877c9c5c25ac21acff633e9955f11.png

image.thumb.png.3e3d6f83065edf7410a675a9683b0070.png

image.thumb.png.67b8c26027afd48b7522406a32f33d2a.png

image.thumb.png.2e320c43fade5bc871f32326b0bb6f6e.png

image.thumb.png.761e59a22660aa690649af3ba4845b7f.png

image.thumb.png.0e6d70e6f19becc4c4867fd53645d280.png

image.thumb.png.554cb1b9413964aa6ce71a31d291762d.png

image.thumb.png.f2db893ff12e5b0282188a3f96d534a1.png

image.thumb.png.1585e0e95ea59e52a6358ef432a8db6b.png

image.thumb.png.3c8c84a70a94875168e64ae7fb344d5a.png

image.thumb.png.d988b22bfe014c6bfb153cfb06e41b8c.png

image.thumb.png.6e6c58efab588b52ebd16d874b43e61b.png

image.thumb.png.10d7956a147c01e9f67202241c231209.png

image.thumb.png.28a02597d564119ce40b5c5ae29372dd.png

image.thumb.png.eb07f1608d9588b82e58efa5a9753813.png

Control

image.thumb.png.751f3bc5e79c10997268448b1cdc92c9.png

OP

image.thumb.png.97917234efeedfed605e1c2e956128a2.png

More than enough from GFS 12Z 

 

 

 

 

 

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Vikos Seasoned

Vikos

Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
Posted

I have trust issues 🫣😎

image.thumb.png.8aa53fd9fdb88b1ff1cec2aa2190f3b2.png

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Polar Maritime Maestro

Polar Maritime

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

The outlook by the models still look very good for proper UK winter weather. Even the experts are on board..

Edited by Polar Maritime
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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
3 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Does anyone know how mogreps verifies compared to Ecm?

Good question...for some  reason i think the are a ukmet high res model and we are seeing is the op in dark blue and associated ensembles 

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parhelion Contributor

parhelion

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Location: Sheffield
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, MJB said:

image.thumb.png.6fd61fe936e36f9a845bd4c2ff2b2fe1.png

Mean at 240 

More than enough from GFS 12Z 

Yep, a solid set of GEFS and I'm not sure where Kasim's 50/50 was coming from. Once again very confusing.

 

Edited by parhelion
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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted
2 minutes ago, MJB said:

image.thumb.png.6fd61fe936e36f9a845bd4c2ff2b2fe1.png

Mean at 240 

image.thumb.png.0eb84ad694e8167d6a4aa31fd2d9ffa1.png

image.thumb.png.ed96517a4c506c62ec2f0a92f662f634.png

image.thumb.png.580877c9c5c25ac21acff633e9955f11.png

image.thumb.png.3e3d6f83065edf7410a675a9683b0070.png

image.thumb.png.67b8c26027afd48b7522406a32f33d2a.png

image.thumb.png.2e320c43fade5bc871f32326b0bb6f6e.png

image.thumb.png.761e59a22660aa690649af3ba4845b7f.png

image.thumb.png.0e6d70e6f19becc4c4867fd53645d280.png

image.thumb.png.554cb1b9413964aa6ce71a31d291762d.png

image.thumb.png.f2db893ff12e5b0282188a3f96d534a1.png

image.thumb.png.1585e0e95ea59e52a6358ef432a8db6b.png

image.thumb.png.3c8c84a70a94875168e64ae7fb344d5a.png

image.thumb.png.d988b22bfe014c6bfb153cfb06e41b8c.png

image.thumb.png.6e6c58efab588b52ebd16d874b43e61b.png

image.thumb.png.10d7956a147c01e9f67202241c231209.png

image.thumb.png.28a02597d564119ce40b5c5ae29372dd.png

image.thumb.png.eb07f1608d9588b82e58efa5a9753813.png

Control

image.thumb.png.751f3bc5e79c10997268448b1cdc92c9.png

OP

image.thumb.png.97917234efeedfed605e1c2e956128a2.png

More than enough from GFS 12Z 

 

 

 

 

 

Yup, seems Kasim is pulling percentages out of a hat again. 

Very good 12z GEFS set, we do see a relaxation of cold towards the end of the run but that’s unsurprising, we often see that even in the most prolonged colder spells. 

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Good question...for some  reason i think the are a ukmet high res model and we are seeing is the op in dark blue and associated ensembles 

From my understanding the Met favour MOGREPS out to day 5-7 and then the EPS beyond that more broadly, in terms of verification I don’t think MOGREPS stats are public, will try & find out. 

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Mcconnor8 Seasoned

Mcconnor8

Posted
  • Location: Lancing, South coast
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing, South coast
Posted
1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

Yup, seems Kasim is pulling percentages out of a hat again. 

Very good 12z GEFS set, we do see a relaxation of cold towards the end of the run but that’s unsurprising, we often see that even in the most prolonged colder spells. 

I only see 2 or 3 runs out of the 30 that don't bring the cold down to the South of the UK within 10 days from now which is far from 50/50 in my opinion

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
1 minute ago, parhelion said:

Yep, a solid set of GEFS and I'm not sure where Kasim's 50/50 was coming from. Once again very confusing.

 

I think he meant it was 50/50 as to whether the cold made it on the op 🤷🏻‍♂️

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