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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

Catacol

By Catacol
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

This thread is for model related chat and discussion only.
Please head over to the Winter chat thread if your post isn't about the models. If you'd like localised weather chat, make sure you've joined your regional group. Or if you just want to moan about the weather or models, or would like to ramp up whatever may be on the way - there is now a dedicated ramp and moans thread.

Please use the insightful reaction on posts you think should be copied to the model highlights thread.

As ever, please keep to the community guidelines, the guiding principles of which are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

Pacific ridge isnt inherently a problem, only if it starts interacting badly with Greenland high, ICON Greenland amplification is much better than ECM so likely wouldn't be as much of a problem later on

Shortwave Got squeezed out west of Greenland while trying to form at 126, great stuff, was a close call though 

Edited by Battleground Snow
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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

GFS 18z at T132:

IMG_8367.thumb.png.c13acae80f9633dbe4d2e7ce2779d1e9.png

Clean height rise into Greenland, so all good from this early part of the retrogression.

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Much more pacific ridge than 12z the Pacific ridge being too inflated was a factor in poor ecm

I think it’s a little more complex than that.  not claiming to know the answers but a strong pacific ridge doesn’t necessarily mean a weaker Greenland ridge 

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
1 minute ago, Catacol said:

Not sure whether this has been posted today or not - I've had to skim the thread a bit due to shortage of time so apologies if it has.

Wow - just wow. Not sure I've seen many better of these.

image.thumb.png.afcb020cc6b5bb96c74e81703033287c.png

John Holmes put out a great post earlier today that ties in with it. Let's make the most of this - it could be 5+ years again before we see anything quite like it.

Yes mate,posted them ealier.

 

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Mcconnor8 Seasoned

Mcconnor8

Posted
  • Location: Lancing, South coast
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing, South coast
Posted
Just now, Weathizard said:

Surely we have a stonker incoming here?

IMG_5635.png

Yep gonna be a pub run classic I think as it looks right now

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

The gfs finally looks very good at 144.

gfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.bdf538cffa73bd984e0583c3beb039bf.png

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

Nice and clean ..   Angular decency.

2FE85140-83D0-41F0-BAA5-CC5013A9647B.png

7136C1CB-1119-4907-9F84-44BC01DBA15B.png

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted (edited)

Bloody hell, this looks insanely good 

IMG_2473.png

Edited by Ali1977
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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

IMG_0846.png

IMG_0847.png

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Mcconnor8 Seasoned

Mcconnor8

Posted
  • Location: Lancing, South coast
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing, South coast
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Bloody hell, this looks insanely good 

IMG_2473.png

Going UKMO route but not quite as much amplification, almost the perfect route currently, VERY cold Northerly on the way quickly.

Edited by Mcconnor8
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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

Gfs having a good go early on here at 144..not sure if it looks favourable upstream though..arctic high nowhere to be seen this time

Looks fine to me, we don’t need the Arctic high I think.  If the high is boxed in there it should deliver.

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Popular Post
Posted

🥶🥶🥶🥶 the high is holding - direct hit inbound 🥶🥶🥶⛄️

IMG_2474.png

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Lukesluckybunch Accomplished

Lukesluckybunch

Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
Posted
1 minute ago, Mcconnor8 said:

Going UKMO route but not quite as much amplification, almost the perfect route currently.

Heights seem to be bottoming out at day 7..but they should rebuild towards canada..the trough decending southward could be a direct hit!😍

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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted

My only worry is the way that low pressure is inflating the Iberian heights, quite significant heights building to our south here

IMG_5636.png

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seabreeze86 Accomplished

seabreeze86

Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
Posted

GFS and UKMO very similar in the Atlantic . Looks primed 

IMG_0204.png

IMG_0205.png

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

Stronger heights on this run compared to the 12z,....lets go💪

gfsnh-12-162.thumb.png.60f8a962b53dc45f75f5817eec4994eb.pnggfsnh-12-168.thumb.png.306f6e2185d0f580cd2b1d9df11fb841.png

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Mcconnor8 Seasoned

Mcconnor8

Posted
  • Location: Lancing, South coast
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing, South coast
Posted
Just now, Weathizard said:

My only worry is the way that low pressure is inflating the Iberian heights, quite significant heights building to our south here

IMG_5636.png

Don't think they will withstand the cold front heading South

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted
Just now, Weathizard said:

My only worry is the way that low pressure is inflating the Iberian heights, quite significant heights building to our south here

IMG_5636.png

Shortwave brigade- Iberian flat liners should hold the forte..

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Tog Rookie

Tog

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Snowboy111 said:

I’ll let you know how we get on ! I got work till 11pm so the drive home could be fun !

I think it’s our turn. You hogged it all last time. 

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lorenzo Maestro

lorenzo

Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Popular Post
Posted
6 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Not sure whether this has been posted today or not - I've had to skim the thread a bit due to shortage of time so apologies if it has.

Wow - just wow. Not sure I've seen many better of these.

image.thumb.png.afcb020cc6b5bb96c74e81703033287c.png

John Holmes put out a great post earlier today that ties in with it. Let's make the most of this - it could be 5+ years again before we see anything quite like it.

Don't forget these bad boys - the analogs this week have been beyond retro ! Was questioning whether they even included this century- but they do !

 

814analog.off.gif

04th Jan

WhatsAppImage2024-01-04at22_13.57_50a166e8.thumb.jpg.582e266c2aed592983dde2a29b498086.jpg

0 from 2000s
2 from 90s
1 from 80s
2 from 70s
3 from 60s
2 from 50s

That's the rarity covered vs historic and current.

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topo Enthusiast

topo

Posted
  • Location: Arendal, Norway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, snow and more snow!
  • Location: Arendal, Norway
Posted
22 minutes ago, CoventryWeather said:

Quick question, the Swiss 4x4 HD model, heard many say it's a good model at convection - shows widespread shower activity from tomorrow afternoon until late Monday pretty much anywhere  southof the mids.. Does anyone have any opinions on this model? It is rated quite highly on Twitter and stuff not really mentioned much on here. Thanks. 

I really like it, most of the time it is better than the global models.

There is also the ECMWF version of it and the nowcast version which claims to be the best one for the next 24 hours

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

My only worry is the way that low pressure is inflating the Iberian heights, quite significant heights building to our south here

IMG_5636.png

I think there is enough energy from the low south west disrupting into inberia on this run..

image.thumb.png.160b428d582868d9a7d48ed3c2a87077.png

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E17boy Seasoned

E17boy

Posted
Posted

Hi peeps

hey I hope everyone is well. I have not posted for a few days been under the weather but slowly recovering from a cold. Here in NE London we had some sunny spells today but as the day went on the shower activity has increased and it’s been on and off this evening but dryer for now albeit temperatures have dropped and it feels like what falls now will be wintry in nature.

So where are we on the models and this cold spell. The way I am seeing things Monday and Tuesday look to be the coldest days of the coming week at least here in the south when there is a chance of a few white surprises from showers. Then the rest of the weeks looks like slightly below average temperatures with frost and fog but nothing severe in terms of cold. The fun and games start probably from later next week but at the moment I would say nothing is clear. We need a few more days yet to see what the models churn out and what happens to this high pressure that has been the top story and attention for the past week. Till then I don’t want to jump on anything but we are on middle ground at the moment. The much awaited mid Jan timeline is coming on the horizon.

Before then some interesting stuff in the form of showers on Monday and Tuesday .

THE TIME IS GETTING CLOSER WILL WE FINALLY SEE OUR WINTER WONDERLAND 

❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️

regards 😊😊😊😊

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