Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[seabreeze86]

2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

My only worry is the way that low pressure is inflating the Iberian heights, quite significant heights building to our south here

The heights are slightly weaker to the south on this run should help box the high in 

[Ice Day]

1 minute ago, lorenzo said:

Don't forget these bad boys - the analogs this week have been beyond retro ! Was questioning whether they even included this century- but they do !

 

04th Jan

0 from 2000s
2 from 90s
1 from 80s
2 from 70s
3 from 60s
2 from 50s

That's the rarity covered vs historic and current.

Hi Lorenzo - could you put a little meat on the bones of what we're looking at here please? 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Looks a bit of a mess to me at 180..not sure where this is going..maybe here comes the renewed push of heights 192

Edited January 6 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[markw2680]

4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

My only worry is the way that low pressure is inflating the Iberian heights, quite significant heights building to our south here

Yes I was looking at that which could mean that low to the sw could phase with the lows coming from the north to far west. That’s just me looking to deeply into potential tits up things lol

[Weathizard]

We are about to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory here aren’t we… 

[Mcconnor8]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Looks a bit of a mess to me at 180..not sure where this is going..

Think the cold will continue South shortly.

[Polar Maritime]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Looks a bit of a mess to me at 180..not sure where this is going..

Very rare charts being viewed.

[lorenzo]

It's good.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

As long as the shortwave to the SW’ doesn’t move NE’. The Met Office update today is a big worry for the South.

Edited January 6 by prolongedSnowLover

[The Enforcer]

11 minutes ago, Allseasons-Si said:

Are you trying to enforce some milder weather,you seem to be cherry picking them out on every run,i think you need to join the MRA (mild rampers association)

here are some better charts for you and everyone else

EPS.

now onto the 18z,...no mild cherry picking in here please

Goodness no, especially having endured 4 weeks of incessant mild weather, culminating in 50% of January's rain total in 4 days and the consequential flooding that ensued. I'm naturally averse to anything in the output that could potentially provide more of the same under the guise of a 'cold spell'. These types of run have been lingering like a bad smell and I would like to see them go away. As thepost I was responding to eluded to, there was more than one "lemon". The charts that yourself and Lorenzo posted would be perfectly fine.

[ICE COLD]

It went a bit dodgy but it looks better now . T192 

[Mcconnor8]

Just now, ICE COLD said:

It went a bit dodgy but it looks better now . T192 

Cold reinforcements on their way from Scandi

[markw2680]

Just now, prolongedSnowLover said:

As long as the shortwave to the SW’ doesn’t move NE’.

Yes that’s what I was thinking, I’m sure it will all change again come the morning anyway 

[frosty ground]

Just now, prolongedSnowLover said:

As long as the shortwave to the SW’ doesn’t move NE’.

Yeah the last thing I want is the low to the south west to engage the cold air over central Britain leaving a foot of snow in its wake that’s the last thing I want

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Just now, frosty ground said:

Yeah the last thing I want is the low to the south west to engage the cold air over central Britain leaving a foot of snow in its wake that’s the last thing I want

You guys up North should be safe!

[sheikhy]

Shouldnt we just be happy for now that its not like the crappy ecm out to 204 hours!!!

[Weathizard]

Bit of a Dogs dinner of a chart from what looked like such a clean evolution at 168

 

36 hours later

[Lukesluckybunch]

5 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

Think the cold will continue South shortly.

Again it's so far out at day 9 it begins..can we take this seriously...ecm wasn't in the mood..

[Battleground Snow]

The 15th singularity cannot be stopped!

Cold slowly heading south and removing Iberian heights 

[January Snowstorm]

Having viewed all models including the latest 18z am certain of one thing.....we are going to be exhausted on the floor by the time this comes home.....I've never seen such promise and background signals take so long to evolve.....not complaining but I need a sleep  

[Man With Beard]

Knife edge stuff at T192. That low in the Atlantic needs to keep coming!!

[Mcconnor8]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

Again it's so far out at day 9 it begins..can we take this seriously...ecm wasn't in the mood..

The 14th/15th has pretty much been the date the whole time, it was 12-13 days out originally.

[That ECM]

The low actually moves sw from t192 to T216

[TSNWK]

Deep cold struggling to break through at day 9 it’s less than 12z but at day 7 it was in advance of 12z

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

The low actually moves sw from t192 to T216

It’s disrupting now at T228: