Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Spah1]

7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

GFS Upgrading the cold pool Again, much further north at such short range - more snow chances for many 

I’d be taking more notice of the Arpege at that range. 

 

[LetItSnow!]

1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

ALP….feel free to attack from the SW when you are ready 

 BFTP

Looks to my eye brutal depth of cold flooding down into multiple directions in the Northern Hemipshere. Lovely to see.

[tight isobar]

I promised my good self I’d refrain from these Synoptics until tomorrow.. however the possibility of the desired wash/estuary streamer combined… is catching the eye 👁!!.. bk to the larger picture for now

Arpege mod..

Edited January 7 by tight isobar

[Derecho]

Just a point of clarification I saw recently. The MJO phase 4 composite is still cold, so it will be interesting to see how this verifies....

Battleground cyclonic it looks like to me. Clearly we won't have a Greenland High that lasts forever but if we get a good blast of cold air from the north mid-month it wouldn't surprise me if we got an interesting battleground scenario to follow as heights to our NW wane (or move back to Scandi?)

Phase 5 isn't favourable but I expect that to come into play later in the month (post January 25th)

 

Edited January 7 by Derecho

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

7 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Agree.. we don’t want it sitting there and filling.. nearer it gets then more of should disrupt and go under lowering heights to our south.

It’s fine, just at the point now where the cold is embedding and blocking solid.  It’ll either slide or the block will exert further.  Attack would be a snow machine.  For me as I’ve said, many twists to come, even this run hasn’t resolved it….but shows also that there’s no definitive Atlantic breakdown.  Indeed this run would highlight Tamara’s re-inforcing post from earlier.   Plenty to look forward to….and I think back to Matt Hugo’s post too….blended with my own view….happy as a coldie.

 

BFTP

[Neilsouth]

Just now, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

It’s fine, just at the point now where the cold is embedding and blocking solid.  It’ll either slide or the block will exert further.  Attack would be a snow machine.  For me as I’ve said, many twists to come, even this run hasn’t resolved it….but shows also that there’s no definitive Atlantic breakdown.  Indeed this run would highlight Tamara’s re-inforcing post from earlier.   Plenty to look forward to….and I think back to Matt Hugo’s post too….blended with my own view….happy as a coldie.

 

BFTP

Considering the high pressure at the moment and then the possible greenland high, I'm expecting a Siberian high pressure to become a real feature down the line. Although not till end of Jan/Feb!

[Lukesluckybunch]

Shortwave around Greenland..at 126..could do without that

[Turnedoutniceagain]

12 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

Looks to my eye brutal depth of cold flooding down into multiple directions in the Northern Hemipshere. Lovely to see.

A week away - ALWAYS a week away.....*sigh*

[Snowman.]

1 minute ago, Derecho said:

Just a point of clarification I saw recently. The MJO phase 4 composite is still cold, so it will be interesting to see how this verifies....

Battleground cyclonic to me. Clearly we won't have a Greenland High that lasts forever but if we get a good blast of cold air from the north mid-month it wouldn't surprise me if we got an interesting battleground scenario to follow as heights to our NW wane (or move back to Scandi?)

Phase 5 isn't favourable but I expect that to come into play later in the month (post January 25th)

 

To me, this is Scandi wedge. Maybe high risk/high reward.

[doctormog]

Just now, Turnedoutniceagain said:

A week away - ALWAYS a week away.....*sigh*

Four days ago it was 11 days away. 

[January Snowstorm]

Gfs control upgrading also for tomorrow. -10s over Cork. Who was it said recently it never snows in Southern Ireland!!    

[winterof79]

22 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Gfs at least -12 upper's entering the south east and a bump in the isobar . Looks like quite widespread snow for a while , probably light.

Just shows that if we tap into any cold  from the Continent or North it can be severe

[TSNWK]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

Shortwave around Greenland..at 126..could do without that

Yep clocked that… and impact at 138 is heights into Greenland struggle and cold push is delayed best.

 

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Shortwave around Greenland..at 126..could do without that

 

[Ali1977]

Get in - this GFS is working out well

[Battleground Snow]

Gem lining up for a slightly earlier timeframe for the polar plunge,

Cross polar flow

[That ECM]

Icon esk 

Edited January 7 by That ECM

[Ali1977]

UKMO looks v good too

[Notty]

30 minutes ago, Allseasons-Si said:

A cracking start to the 12z

ICON...

Love to see the chart for the following day

[Ice Day]

Like the look of UKMO at 144, GEM very similar at the same time

 

[Mike Poole]

Models at T144:

GFS slightly undercooked compared to the 6z, UKMO getting the retrogression underway, looking good, GEM the cleanest, also movement of the UK high north, looks excellent.

[Hatewarmth]

6 minutes ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

A week away - ALWAYS a week away.....*sigh*

Once again I’ll state this has ALWAYS been progged for the 15th

[Captain Shortwave]

The models have toyed with a strong Pacific ridge, a flatter solution and now the main models have something in between, a parcel of heights moving across towards Greenland.

Now that would be a big stroke of luck because suddenly we just need the Atlantic ridge to push north enough to meet what is coming from the other side. When they meet we will have the amplified ridge that we saw made solely from our side a couple of days ago.

Edited January 7 by Captain Shortwave

[Harveyslugger]

Just now, Hatewarmth said:

Once again I’ll state this has ALWAYS been progged for the 15th

Yes that is true

[TSNWK]

 06z made a better job of heights into greenlan

[seabreeze86]

I see you ICON but I’m going to raise says the GEM