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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

Catacol

By Catacol
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

This thread is for model related chat and discussion only.
Please head over to the Winter chat thread if your post isn't about the models. If you'd like localised weather chat, make sure you've joined your regional group. Or if you just want to moan about the weather or models, or would like to ramp up whatever may be on the way - there is now a dedicated ramp and moans thread.

Please use the insightful reaction on posts you think should be copied to the model highlights thread.

As ever, please keep to the community guidelines, the guiding principles of which are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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MattH
MattH

Hi. I just wanted to create a post from an educational perspective and also be a point of reference regarding the importance of the GSDM and the AAM on the medium and long term. Hopefully, anyone

MATTWOLVES 3
MATTWOLVES 3

Good God...its been my dad's funeral today..just a small service for close family as he didn't want a big fuss! This may seen insensitive me posting weather charts at such a time..but I will tell you

snowice
snowice

Premature ecmjulcation.

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)

The GFS has more cold air digging south upstream and the Azores low (which this feeds) is being allowed to move which means the Iberian ridge should flatten quicker on this run. The cold air may take a little longer to arrive but unsure whether this will be better or worse than the previous run.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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NorthYorksWeather Experienced

NorthYorksWeather

Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
Posted

GFS 12z 120 hrs

Very similar to the 6z let’s see how we go

 

IMG_7515.thumb.png.15463caeec6aab2cd3889a5517bc06cb.png

 

 

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

GFS / UKMO at 120

image.thumb.png.7103f024eea7ff6115503834ed3d56ce.png image.thumb.png.be121e317993ab8998d6a7dc469edfff.png

Pretty close match there

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frosty ground Veteran

frosty ground

Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
Posted
Just now, Captain Shortwave said:

The GFS has more cold air digging south upstream and the Azores low is being allowed to move which means the Iberian ridge should flatten quicker on this run.

I didn’t see it that way looks to the low will divert the cold to the Atlantic 

 

image.thumb.png.0b1788e2701a532e7cdabc7943a9a698.png 

very interesting viewing either way

 

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NorthYorksWeather Experienced

NorthYorksWeather

Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

GFS / UKMO at 120

image.thumb.png.7103f024eea7ff6115503834ed3d56ce.png image.thumb.png.be121e317993ab8998d6a7dc469edfff.png

Pretty close match there

IMG_7517.thumb.png.021641cde1870a1b03f5212f8579ab38.png

GEM 12z hot off the press also similar, looks like with got good agreement at 120hrs so far. 

Edited by NorthYorksWeather
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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

The GFS / UKMO at 144

image.thumb.png.5a97808c85c15f36ffde60a6c09bf6f3.png image.thumb.png.1246b8f805e4a0f58bec4026e9776040.png

Excellent

 

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Day 10 Maestro

Day 10

Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
Posted

Stronger heights into Southern Greenland.

gfsnh-0-150.thumb.png.2331f8500110d051bedb4295b2e75cce.pnggfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.ea237090910ea29e2ad39581c29d7563.png

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Drifter Rising Star

Drifter

Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire
Posted
Just now, bluearmy said:

Have a feeling that the 12z runs will swing back a bit 

Which way? Good or bad?

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Midlands Ice Age Maestro

Midlands Ice Age

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
Posted
5 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Is everyone holding their breaths!

Can I breathe out yet?

Only I don't feel too good now.

MIA

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Mcconnor8 Seasoned

Mcconnor8

Posted
  • Location: Lancing, South coast
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing, South coast
Posted

Cold slightly slower in on these runs but the NHP look excellent on them 

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
Just now, Drifter said:

Which way? Good or bad?

12 Gfs looks a little messy in our area and south west low nearer  - so deep cold delayed by about 12 hours so far, unable to offer a view on how UKM has trended.

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Aiden2012 Community Regular

Aiden2012

Posted
  • Location: Pocklington E/yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Love snow
  • Location: Pocklington E/yorkshire
Posted

Shaping up for some brill 12z action here gfs looks like it’s going to be great 👍 

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Day 10 Maestro

Day 10

Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
Posted

Brilliant seeing charts like this and now at only 162!

gfsnh-0-162.thumb.png.845454fa7bb1aed66bf29a48b5968cf2.pnggfsnh-1-162.thumb.png.3b1b2d712237bb308e2cea28d60fa9d4.png

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

Cold air still on target and the Azores low is fragmenting with a weather front pushing north into southern England. Where these two meet could result in a lot of snow.

image.thumb.png.317ae9f9dcb42146ff2126f121c50252.png

 

Worth noting that the surface high is not present on this run.

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Mcconnor8 Seasoned

Mcconnor8

Posted
  • Location: Lancing, South coast
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing, South coast
Posted
Just now, Day 10 said:

Brilliant seeing charts like this and now at only 162!

gfsnh-0-162.thumb.png.845454fa7bb1aed66bf29a48b5968cf2.pnggfsnh-1-162.thumb.png.3b1b2d712237bb308e2cea28d60fa9d4.png

That vortex lobe is coming to pay us a visit again I think

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NorthYorksWeather Experienced

NorthYorksWeather

Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
Posted

GFS 168hrs 

Cold air slowly filtering southwards

IMG_7521.thumb.png.06f2a5f6ef198b785ad891f7cf0e9088.pngIMG_7522.thumb.png.8ce8f13182d33e3f1eca0490e0d002c0.png

 

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Continental Climate Aficionado

Continental Climate

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: heavy convective snow showers, blizzards, 30C sunshine
  • Location: Darlington
Posted
Just now, frosty ground said:

image.thumb.png.551788d2c75bd077eda8eeb3608ac2ff.png
 

a lot of changes, cold slightly delayed by hours if anything, but the Azores low deciding to make something of itself causing changes all over the shop.

 

Yep that could be our next hurdle to get over if that low exerts itself a bit more. Some people will say its a potential snowmaker etc but i view it as a danger to our cold and want it gone ASAP 

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