Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Ali1977]

WOW, amazing from the 168 to this . Uber happy with that   

[IDO]

Just now, bluearmy said:

But ec ejects the Arctic ridge our side of the NH which will make quite a difference 

Yes, as we see at D9:

Ec -v- GFS. Also, it is better undercut by EC to keep the cold south of the UK:

[Geordiesnow]

10 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

Band of snow moving south on the ECM at 168hrs

That's a classic case of a chart not looking spectacular on the face of it actually produces quite a widespread snow event.

ECM is a good run, guess we all prefer the much cleaner northerly blast in and make sure the cold arrives but most runs do suggest that it will be a slacker flow to begin with. 

[booferking]

Day 9 looks baltic maybe hint of easterly afterwards.

[Lampostwatcher]

ECM 12z 

Winter is coming ❄🌨

[Battleground Snow]

It's the position and strength of the Arctic high causing the slight model variations,

The general pattern looks set though, in terms on the Arctic high pushing the trop vortex south.

Is there any stats on Arctic/polar verification for the models?

[Alpine glow]

22 minutes ago, Nick123 said:

I have no knowledge of the charts at all but I do wonder why we get excited about weather that's a week away when they change run by run?

Because Meteorology is interesting and fun.   Especially at this time of year.  

These charts are super exciting, you don't know what's going to come next and also quite rare.  Sometimes it not just about the outcome.

[seabreeze86]

Yeah that will work ECM 

BOOMMMMM

[Scott Ingham]

56 minutes ago, Catacol said:

@Met4Cast - roll with the muppetry. It doesn’t matter how many times some folk on here are advised not to jump on every micro detail change at 240h. It still happens despite the solid ongoing signal. If current anticipated synoptics are not good enough then I hate to think how people are going to react in the future to the 85-90% of seasons with more typical patterns.

All good. Trough still dropping down the eastern side of a significant block. Good times.

I’m glad this thread has posters with a level head that I can relate to like yourself

[bluearmy]

Just now, IDO said:

Yes, as we see at D9:

Ec -v- GFS. Also, it is better undercut by EC to keep the cold south of the UK:

Pressure on the trough from the ridge to the north keeping it further south 

can’t rely on this at such a range 

evidence that the Arctic profile will dictate a lot of what’s happening in the 9/12 day period. Meanwhile, the 7/9 day still remains elusive on any detail 

[Penicuikblizzard]

14 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

Band of snow moving south on the ECM at 168hrs

Liking the look of this chart, ECM is delivering

[Lukesluckybunch]

Oh come on ecm!

[Andy8472]

8 minutes ago, Nick123 said:

Sorry if this has already been asked but what is a shortwave?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shortwave_(meteorology)

[Sweatyman]

3 minutes ago, booferking said:

Day 9 looks baltic maybe hint of easterly afterwards.

ooh love a good Balti! whoops Baltic!

[Drifter]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Pressure on the trough from the ridge to the north keeping it further south 

can’t rely on this at such a range 

evidence that the Arctic profile will dictate a lot of what’s happening in the 9/12 day period. Meanwhile, the 7/9 day still remains elusive on any detail 

Tbh, I don’t think we can rely on anything at that range. We just have to roll with the uncertainty I guess. 

[northwestsnow]

EC ends beautifully.

Now just the small matter of getting there..

( it looks finely balanced at day 8)..

[Ali1977]

Severe cold this, especially if there’s snow cover. What a great evening of runs - nice ENS hopefully then I may keep an eye on the pub run

[Mike Poole]

ECM T240:

Epic run in the end!

[WYorksWeather]

First day back at work today so not as much time to comment here. My initial thoughts are not to worry about the GFS too much. It's a slight downgrade for the south but still a lot of scatter, and the final stages of the run where it turned very mild are deep into FI. I'd probably expect that it'll take until Wednesday or Thursday for the period around 15th - 20th to clear up a bit.

We await the ECM ensembles later on!

[Spah1]

You wanted the cold air to get into France

 

Et voilà

 

[Zero Visibility]

EC Day 10

[bluearmy]

Just now, Spah1 said:

You wanted the cold air to get into France

 

Et voilà

 

Just thinking that would do - of course that will count down ……

[Allseasons-Si]

Brilliant ECM,...very cold with disturbancies in the flow...

sorry for the quick post as i am doing dinner.

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T240:

Epic run in the end!

Take away the short wave (which is surely odds against at that range) and would have been crazy from day 7 !

[Purga]

ECM 240hrs is awesome!