Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[IanT]

6 minutes ago, Purga said:

Been alluded to but some very good cold runs in the ENS. Also, a VERY encouraging & bullish UKM long range update today for coldies (check out the appropriate thread) !

Is there a way to view this ensemble chart as it was 7 days ago? I think it would be instructive to compare last weeks iteration with this one, but I don’t know how to do that. Can anyone help?

[mountsbaysnow]

31 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

So those GFS runs which some dismissed of the Azores low coming into play is now being suggested by the Met Office? I mean somewhere could get lucky but it's playing with fire, much prefer the cold air properly establishes itself before any attack from the west/south west. 

The main thing is we get a strong enough northerly to get that cold air as far south as possible and for the northerly to be as potent as it possibly can be.

Yes I'm hoping it gets colder before the attack from the west. 

 

[Met4Cast]

2 minutes ago, IanT said:

Is there a way to view this ensemble chart as it was 7 days ago? I think it would be instructive to compare last weeks iteration with this one, but I don’t know how to do that. Can anyone help?

Here's the GEFS from the 1st January

Not sure there's any archive just had this saved for some reason.

[winterof79]

7 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Be aware MetO updates can be off the mark in the medium /long term - remember 2018/19 Winter, the cold that never transpired!

I see Father Christmas didn't bring you a new cup to replace that leaky cup you've had for what seems like ages

[IanT]

6 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Here's the GEFS from the 1st January

Not sure there's any archive just had this saved for some reason.

Thank you. Sadly the y-axes are scaled differently so it’s hard to construct the time-shifted overlay I had in mind.

Edited January 9 by IanT

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, Met4Cast said:

The most interesting aspect of the MetO update is the complete lack of the word "rain" across the entire forecast period, "snow and sleet" featuring a few times. This suggests to me that they are not making much of any 'milder' incursions. 

Either way, unsurprisingly they are not in camp GFS but very much favouring the EPS/UKM/MOGREPS blend & probably GloSea6.

UK Met rarely, as far as I am aware, rarely make use of this model for UK forecasting

[LetItSnow!]

Not an exact science but model watching for ten years tells me that any low attacking from the south could very likely, though not definitely, correct southward and mild air probably won’t have as much of an impact . Add to that the point I already made about not needing super cold uppers to deliver when cold is entrenched at the surface. 

Edited January 9 by LetItSnow!
Correction

[Jason M]

45 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

My preference is the snowline stays south of the Midlands actually.

That way more people see snow and those of us North of the snow will hopefully see lots of snow showers and frosty nights.

 

Think your right about this. If it gets up as far as you its going to be snow to rain and the fat lady will be belting out her latest hits.

[Harsh Climate]

12 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Yes HLB to re establish to our NW at any opportunity as i have said previously.I favour slider gate as some have predicted with frequent disturbances swinging up into a very cold air mass and dragging in a NE feed as they move into the North Sea but at regular intervals.

Yeah been a few models toying with that idea, sliders from the NW a fair bit safer in keeping the cold 2, rather than the big barage from the SW lol.

[Harsh Climate]

49 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

My preference is the snowline stays south of the Midlands actually.

That way more people see snow and those of us North of the snow will hopefully see lots of snow showers and frosty nights.

 

I saw a couple runs yesterday toy with that idea, battle ground snow not making it past the north midlands but with lots of snow showers piling in from the east just north into northern England/ southern Scotland!

You don't want to be in the dreaded dry patch sandwiched in between though 

[Scandinavian High.]

Very interesting isn’t it what’s betting them lows coming up from south west don’t get that far north I say Birmingham the most northern extent south of that chances of significant snow events. For the north snow showers and longer spells of snow at times.

Edited January 9 by Scandinavian High.

[nick sussex]

Excellent ECM 06 hrs control run to T144 hrs . An upgrade on the earlier 00hrs run .

This might seem a very small change but this will make a difference down the line .

ECM 06 hrs run to T144 hrs.

 

ECM 00 hrs run to T150 hrs .

 

What we want is a straight flow from the north ne  , the bulge you see on the GFS is a sign that the blocking is going to start edging west and orientating in an unfavourable  manner .

GFS 06 hrs run  to T150 hrs .

 

[seabreeze86]

Excellent post Nick explained it far better than I could. We saw a similar improvement from yesterdays ECM 6z let’s hope the 12z follows it unlike yesterday 

[That ECM]

9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Excellent ECM 06 hrs control run to T144 hrs . An upgrade on the earlier 00hrs run .

This might seem a very small change but this will make a difference down the line .

ECM 06 hrs run to T144 hrs.

 

ECM 00 hrs run to T150 hrs .

 

What we want is a straight flow from the north ne  , the bulge you see on the GFS is a sign that the blocking is going to start edging west and orientating in an unfavourable  manner .

GFS 06 hrs run  to T150 hrs .

 

I posted earlier that the initial time of interest is T144.  Once in the reliable then we can start looking at the west sw.

[Spah1]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

My preference is the snowline stays south of the Midlands actually.

That way more people see snow and those of us North of the snow will hopefully see lots of snow showers and frosty nights.

 

You've been taken over to the dark side. I wouldn't mind one of these slider / LP systems actually making it to Lancashire. Can't remember the last time we had a frontal snow system. Exeter's update very encouraging. Looking forward to the 12z'. Hoping to see a cleaner evolution and a more robust Greenie block. 

[danm]

 

[bluearmy]

21 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

Not an exact science but model watching for ten years tells me that any low attacking from the south could very likely, though not definitely, correct southward and mild air probably won’t have as much of an impact . Add to that the point I already made about not needing super cold uppers to deliver when cold is entrenched at the surface. 

This is true but at the moment we have negative flow above 70N in the atmosphere which is presenting the modelling with issues. If the pattern becomes too retrogressive then the block heads too far west and the lows have a simple job to trundle across 

[Liam Burge]

A definite 'upgrade' on the MetO outlook today. Especially the ending lines: "but there is an increasing risk of something potentially disruptive at some point in this period.".

 

The GFS definitely isn't the preferred solution currently, and I believe this is due to it's bias to always want to return to something more atlantic-driven. Looking at ECM and UKM paints a much better picture with cold air becoming entrenched across the whole of the UK.

[Battleground Snow]

12 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Excellent ECM 06 hrs control run to T144 hrs . An upgrade on the earlier 00hrs run .

This might seem a very small change but this will make a difference down the line .

ECM 06 hrs run to T144 hrs.

 

ECM 00 hrs run to T150 hrs .

 

What we want is a straight flow from the north ne  , the bulge you see on the GFS is a sign that the blocking is going to start edging west and orientating in an unfavourable  manner .

GFS 06 hrs run  to T150 hrs .

 

Yeh agreed, get that initial plunge as far south as possible to give southern members deep cold, then if the Azores low does attack from the west more people are in the game.

Gfs did actually move in the early 72-96 towards euros period, but then went Haywire 

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Nick2373 said:

06z well i don't know what Exeter are seeing but all I'm seeing on the 6z is just under average temps with a climb to just above from the 22nd onwards, South looks to be falling to just average conditions on every run, I cant wait for the 12z to roll out because quite frankly that's a rubbish chart if its cold and snow your after. 

 

What needs to be remembered when it comes to snowfall in the UK, especially in mid winter, which I class as roughly now through to mid Feb, is you don't need particularly cold uppers in frontal set ups to produce it. Indeed the heaviest snowfalls tend to occur in 'less cold air', provided dewpoints are on the right side of 0 degrees, heavy snow can fall with uppers as high as -2 degrees, even close to 0 degrees, evaporative cooling and lapse rates hold the key.

 

 

[bluearmy]

11 minutes ago, danm said:

 

Two things from that 

a) looks like zonal is 60% + from w/c 22nd and yet the 30 dayer today doesn’t read that way 

b) someone needs to explain to them that the eps and op are all at the same resolution

[Continental Climate]

39 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

ECM control vs 06z GFS

   

 

The ECM has a much better ridge and the cold air is angled much better as a result. We really need to see the ECM type solution later on.

We are not too far away from dreamland on that ECM chart. That puts us into a Noreaster for the 15th. If we could just get a more robust longer lasting block we would all be in a coldie heaven. That ship has sailed though but the Met update gives me hope of something a bit longer lasting. I genuinely want a nationwide snowy spell so everyone gets a dollop even those on the Isles of scilly. It would have to be special for them though I'm not even sure 2010 was good enough. Come on 12zs steady the ship. 

[mountsbaysnow]

1 minute ago, Continental Climate said:

We are not too far away from dreamland on that ECM chart. That puts us into a Noreaster for the 15th. If we could just get a more robust longer lasting block we would all be in a coldie heaven. That ship has sailed though but the Met update gives me hope of something a bit longer lasting. I genuinely want a nationwide snowy spell so everyone gets a dollop even those on the Isles of scilly. It would have to be special for them though I'm not even sure 2010 was good enough. Come on 12zs steady the ship. 

I hope so it's been too long. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Afternoon guys..I saw the BBC are predicting wintry weather next week..mentioning even possible widespread disruptive snow

[steveinsussex]

22 minutes ago, danm said:

 

not much of a deep dive after this weekend, not a scooby really