Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[bluearmy]

The good news is that we can all go to bed! 

[Rocheydub]

Yuck! The outcome, you can see where it goes wrong at 126/132

[Allseasons-Si]

But wait,...it might be sniffing a new pattern,...watch for height's here(black arrow)

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

Theres a fine line between being over confident and coming across as  arrogant, simply just dismissing other peoples views when they show charts backing up that point with a sweeping remark cutting them down is a bit low!... but there you go each to their own!

One gfs op isn’t a chart to back up a view though. An ensemble pack that shows 60% support for a run that is a different story. It’s important not to get caught up in one run out of about 200 over several models. That’s the key point I’m trying to make. If you look at all available means for the 15th to the 22nd does mild or cold have the most evidence to support it? 

[winterof79]

4 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

Theres a fine line between being over confident and coming across as  arrogant, simply just dismissing other peoples views when they show charts backing up that point with a sweeping remark cutting them down is a bit low!... but there you go each to their own!

No need for snipes its a model watching thread.Take it to pm.

[That ECM]

Well that doesn’t show disruptive snow. 

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, winterof79 said:

No need for snipes its a model watching thread.Take it to pm.

Thanks mate this is why I post more in regionals the past 2 years and not on here because everyone is far too emotional and sensitive!

[frosty ground]

GFS is changing in the mid term but it’s sticking to a collapsing GH, it won’t be the first time the GFS has called it correctly but we usually end up in a meeting if the models a half way house.

ECM UKM and GFS to change places in the morning 

[northwestsnow]

18z a snow event for Central areas at day 8

 

[Ice Day]

2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Either MOGREPS, UKMO and the ECM/EPS all have this wrong and somehow the GFS det is correct despite the GEFS being a complete and utter mess with no discernible signal, or the GFS is just rather useless. 

I know which camp I'm in. We'll see on the overnight runs, can't discount the GFS but the evidence is certainly against it.

Exactly right, as much as we would like to it cannot be discounted as other models have flirted with similar evolutions. I certainly wouldn't be putting any money on the GFS option, especially as it's up against the UKMO & ECM, but knowing our luck!

It's a bit of an unholy mess at 186, comparison to ECM at the same time

 

 

[Battleground Snow]

6 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Well that went wrong  quick. T132 it looked better to me and then……

Look how similar ukmo and ecm has the polar profile, 

Gfs keeps changing it run to run.

See you all tomorrow 

[Rocheydub]

All that said, if GFS is correct, it will go down in the annals of weather chasing fails with many others! Also, the NH profile is still very unusual, conducive to -NAO and another chase. Even if this is a fail, there's plenty of opportunities as we move on.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

No need for snipes its a model watching thread.Take it to pm.

No sniping mate...Factorama!..This morning I posted Gem and Gfs ens... both showing crap outcomes and was called insane!.....If that's what you need to do to get a ticket to the nut house then God help us all!

[TSNWK]

5 minutes ago, Allseasons-Si said:

But wait,...it might be sniffing a new pattern,...watch for height's here(black arrow)

Stop it I was shutting down the laptop for the night….. 

[Weathizard]

Dreadful GFS, law of the sod says it’s probably right, always the model you don’t want to be right ends up being the one.

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, Snowmut said:

No sniping mate...Factorama!..This morning I posted Gem and Gfs ens... both showing crap outcomes and was called insane!.....If that's what you need to do to get a ticket to the nut house then God help us all!

They don’t show crap outcomes though snowmut. Repost them now and let people decide. There was more support for cold than mild 15-22nd. I’m not sure what you are getting at?

[Hatewarmth]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

18z a snow event for Central areas at day 8

 

Yes all the models are now saying this. I think the models will end up halfway house as usual but starting to look likely a snow event somewhere on Wednesday as the low in the SW move into play. My guess would be an area between Birmingham and Leeds to be worse hit as it stands but true is we won’t know till T+0

[January Snowstorm]

5 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

One gfs op isn’t a chart to back up a view though. An ensemble pack that shows 60% support for a run that is a different story. It’s important not to get caught up in one run out of about 200 over several models. That’s the key point I’m trying to make. If you look at all available means for the 15th to the 22nd does mild or cold have the most evidence to support it? 

It's several op runs in last 48 hrs. GEM and Jma last night and 2 runs on the bounce from gfs. The ensembles on 12z gfs also. Cold still favoured, but the trend towards something milder has actually gained traction in the last 24hours. That doesn't mean it will happen, but it's certainly deserves discussion and comment

[MATTWOLVES 3]

There's no way that gfs is gonna out do mogreps ukmo and ecm..sorry its not happening..and I'm beginning to wonder now if this model even deserves air time.

We have Dr Amy Butler talking about enhanced Greenland blocking next week due to the recent warming yet gfs is clearly not seeing this..infact there's alot going on with the strat and I wouldn't be suprised to see it fall.

 

 

Edited January 9 by MATTWOLVES 3

[That ECM]

 

 

Edited January 9 by That ECM

[cold snap]

Gfs could.br very good at around day 9 . Looks slider positioning is possible.

[mountain shadow]

13 minutes ago, Bartlett High said:

GFS not budging.....surely this can't be ignored. 

 

 

Yes it can.

[LRD]

Well, I'm certainly not emotionally invested in this and can look at it quite neutrally

We have in one corner 4 GFS op runs in a row showing a very different outcome to what the teleconnections and other big picture stuff and the professionals are saying - and those ops say no real significant cold. There is some sort of support from GEM op runs

In the other corner is basically everything else saying it will get cold

You can't ignore 4 GFS op runs in a row but I am still confident of a cold, possibly disruptive week next week. If that doesn't happen then lots to learn teleconnections-wise and what a massive win for the GFS it would be. The mocking it gets on here would result in some humble pie being eaten!

[MattStoke]

7 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Well that doesn’t show disruptive snow. 

Oh but it does for many.

[Neilsouth]

Do you lot not learn, LOOK AT THE GFS compared to others! Not only is it swinging from one to the next, but the entire global pattern is different!! Dartboard lows, dartboard highs, it's as if the pattern looks squashed compared to the UKMO/GEM.  Bin it, it's WRONG