Moans, ramps and banter

[raz.org.rain]

Oh joy, sounds like the rain has arrived here.

[Mark Parsons]

1 hour ago, Stuie said:

After hunting around ALL models for tomorrow morning, unfortunately IMBY misses out a decent snowfall on the South Coast. That close you can almost see the 2 fingers.

Funny old game (EVERY year)

EDIT: If all the models have it slightly wrong, I will report.

It's not over until the fat lady sings......

[In Absence of True Seasons]

4 hours ago, Bristawl Si said:

Aaannnnddddd......they're off!!

 

Day 10 my boy!

[ANYWEATHER]

4 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

childhood! I remember her, thought she was utterly useless, cannot remember now if she did ITV national or central ITV or Midlands today in 90's

They might sack her ,when one day she gets it right

4 hours ago, Arch Stanton said:

Spot on. 

There were even references to 1947 & 1963 in the last chase!

I might be wrong but with SSTs being so much warmer now (~+2.5c) coupled with a shrinking arctic ice-mass, I don’t think it would be possible to repeat those winter now….

Ah well, let the crazy kids carry on, it’s entertaining

It's certainly possible given the right synoptics. ....☺

[raz.org.rain]

20 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

They might sack her ,when one day she gets it right

It's certainly possible given the right synoptics. ....☺

It's also possible to hit +45°c given the right synoptics, but it's not a realistic expectation 

[Day_9]

Hands up who remembers this time last week…… it was all “in the bag”…… until it wasn’t 

[Jayces]

27 minutes ago, Day_9 said:

Hands up who remembers this time last week…… it was all “in the bag”…… until it wasn’t 

I guess it depends on who you listened to?

I'm pretty sure none of the seasoned regulars were suggesting this, but happy to be proven wrong.

My experience over the years, especially in winter when looking for the white stuff, is anything beyond 2 -3 days is just for fun and subject to change. Even then, it's still not guaranteed, but less likely to go pear shaped at that range.

My advice, if there is another chase starting up, enjoy the chase and what could be but don't take anything as the most likely outcome until it's under 48 hours, you're less likely to be disappointed then.

[lassie23]

40 minutes ago, Nick2373 said:

18z still shows what we are all expecting in terms of the transition from cold to  avenge for this time of the year, but it also shows a dryer period from the 24th with what looks like to be periods of cooler sectors popping in and out at times. But them its all eyes to the end of the month with more member's dropping down past the the 30 year mean to something colder is the chase back on?

Pointless even thinking about a chase that far out you have to wait until next month now.

 

[lassie23]

3 minutes ago, Nick2373 said:

??? Nothing not pointless about it, there is quite a lot of evidence not just from the GEFS but other models of something colder towards the end of the month. when i review and look at the GEFS I look for trending in patterns yes granted you may not end up with what its showing but what i find is you end up with pretty much not far off in temp or condition wise with the GEFS.  It picked up on the last cold spell and was showing a trend quite a few days out in the realms of FI. I've stuck to this method for years learning looking and analysing the GEFS and its patterns I'm confidant there's a chase on and will stick to my guns on this of a shift to something colder. 

I hope it will be one worth chasing, unlike the one we have at present which apart from some low nighttime temperatures has been a huge disappointment despite all the hype it got in here.

[Nick2373]

6 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

I hope it will be one worth chasing, unlike the one we have at present which apart from some low nighttime temperatures has been a huge disappointment despite all the hype it got in here.

And this is the factor at times i suppose on any forum, excuse the pun its like a snowball rolling down hill as its going it gets bigger and bigger until everyone can see it and believe it. you have to keep a level head and stay grounded and not become wrapped up in the moment, the last spell in my eye's wasn't going to deliver South due to the lack of moisture winter always favours a North/South split, same could be said in the summer its usually sunny clear sky's here and rain further North. 

[mulzy]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well I've done that much chasing it's definitely time to take a step back for now ..

As Arnie once said ,I'll be back !!

EC day 9 says it might be a while !

I personally think we are a long way off cold.  Record mildness is possible early next week; 14C/15C in the south.  We have to be honest, the chase for this mediocre cold snap has been tiring and demoralising.  The experts on here as well as the Met Office got it badly wrong.  January’s CET will come in above average (maybe significantly so) to follow December’s exceptional mildness.  Can February save this winter from joining the scrapheap of poor winters?  At the moment, it’s mainly hope that is keeping me going.

[Weather-history]

"I personally think we are a long way off cold."

A comment I have seen in the model thread....... promise not to tell anyone but I want to tell you this secret...  in a quiet whispering voice......its cold now......

[lassie23]

On 15/01/2024 at 07:34, SLEETY said:

Hey guys just wait for spring and your get the perfect northern blocking appear that won't just melt away like this week. 

Winter in this country is just Woeful now, mainly just constant wind and rain crud off the Atlantic. 

The warming trend since the late 80s in NW Europe is just ridiculous

British winters have become so tedious I now dread them because you know it will be months of rain gloom, cloud, and mild temperatures, basically one long autumn and not winter.

[James1979]

23 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

British winters have become so tedious I now dread them because you know it will be months of rain gloom, cloud, and mild temperatures, basically one long autumn and not winter.

3 months Summer, 9 months grey lids. The new seasons.

[cyclonic happiness]

30 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

"I personally think we are a long way off cold."

A comment I have seen in the model thread....... promise not to tell anyone but I want to tell you this secret...  in a quiet whispering voice......its cold now......

it was colder here last week, before the 'cold spell' started.

Tonight, it's supposed to get to -5'c or -6'c, what's the betting it's too cloudy and we don't even get a ground frost?

[North Easterly Breeze]

Had to laugh at the radar this morning, almost taking the you know what out of the south as it covers Belgium in snow.

[Azazel]

All that snow down over France. You can bet if it had been all rain it would’ve slammed into the south of the U.K. 

[cyclonic happiness]

25 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

British winters have become so tedious I now dread them because you know it will be months of rain gloom, cloud, and mild temperatures, basically one long autumn and not winter.

I agree, and I actually prefer wet and windy, because we at least get to see some 'weather'.  

The one thing that climate change has achieved, is to make the weather more boring than I've ever known in my 46 years on earth.

No gales, no frosts (well hoar or rime) no snow, no fog (one foggy morning this year) no April showers (they died years ago), no thunderstorms .   Just one big, long, boring period of grey and rain.

The only thing that happens now, is that 6 day intense heatwave we get every summer

[Weatherman_93]

What do the mad thread/snow chasers really want? There has been snowfall in several places across the UK and still it isn't good enough for some folk. Will they only be happy if we get 10-12 ft of snow, communities cut off, transport at a standstill and then the potential of flooding when it all starts to thaw?

[SussexSnowman]

50 minutes ago, Weatherman_93 said:

What do the mad thread/snow chasers really want? There has been snowfall in several places across the UK and still it isn't good enough for some folk. Will they only be happy if we get 10-12 ft of snow, communities cut off, transport at a standstill and then the potential of flooding when it all starts to thaw?

Aye you get some in there who truly want to experience the extreme side of a snowfall event. Our infrastructure just isn't built to handle such events. As you say there has been snow in places. Might not be the snowmaggedon kind of events, but still we (UK) has experienced some snow events this week and last. On top of that we've had cold dry days. I consider that winter weather. I for one not complaining. 

[SunnyG]

1 hour ago, Weatherman_93 said:

What do the mad thread/snow chasers really want? There has been snowfall in several places across the UK and still it isn't good enough for some folk. Will they only be happy if we get 10-12 ft of snow, communities cut off, transport at a standstill and then the potential of flooding when it all starts to thaw?

Some of them want minus 20c temps like in Scandinavia. Each to their own. I'd rather not, thanks.

[ANYWEATHER]

1 hour ago, Weatherman_93 said:

What do the mad thread/snow chasers really want? There has been snowfall in several places across the UK and still it isn't good enough for some folk. Will they only be happy if we get 10-12 ft of snow, communities cut off, transport at a standstill and then the potential of flooding when it all starts to thaw?

I think we are talking a bunch of weather extremists would really want this scenario.  Problem is we are in the wrong country ,better move to Canada and the US of A.

[SussexSnow]

1 hour ago, North Easterly Breeze said:

Had to laugh at the radar this morning, almost taking the you know what out of the south as it covers Belgium in snow.

You think that's bad.  Apparently it's snowing here.

[ANYWEATHER]

16 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Embarrassing regional weather forecast on Good Morning Britain this morning. I haven't see something as bad as this. This is what happens when you don't do a live weather broadcast. The bulk of NW England was affected by snow as this was being aired.

 

The unprofessional way this has been done is beyond ridiculous !. No wonder the weather forecasting brigade get a lot of negative flack

[Matty88]

Most of the charts showed the main precipitation missing the South Cost today, the excitement was only there if it managed to 'clip' the coast.... a far cry from the metoffice's snowmegeddon call last week haha 

Now on to next months potential moans - SSW I hear, it wont be long before the fabled lines of 'downwelling' start appearing on the mod threat, and 'get the cold in first'....  every chance it will go on to cause a cold dive into Eastern europe and blast us with a blow torch from Africa