Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

[Bats32]

What a period of model watching this is, absolutely fantastic!

[O'Maille80]

Just now, MattStoke said:

GEM too.

His was the GEM, mistakes happen and all.

[That ECM]

T168 ukmo will be interesting. 

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, O'Maille80 said:

His was the GEM, mistakes happen and all.

U.K. wide gridlock if that happened!! 

[Ice Day]

It's not often I ignore output past day 9, but with FI so close and the volatility in the models outside of days 5/6, it's really a pointless task for me.  The ensembles will be an indicator, but even they won't be much use outside of 192.

Let's look at the UKMO / GFS / GEM at 144

  

We've already entered the unreliable at this point, so thereafter should be noted but not relied on.  Looking forward to the short GEFS tonight.

If you're not enjoying this, I'd try another hobby.  The uncertainty at such close range makes this hugely enjoyable.

[tight isobar]

If possible notable snow events are your staple.. without deep entrenched cold “ The Canadian/GEM 12z run is your  go to mod…. What an afternoon already…. Ukmo hopefully rumping-the raws .... on we move @ec12

Edited January 11 by tight isobar

[MattStoke]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

U.K. wide gridlock if that happened!! 

Doesn't bring in much milder air either, so snow would remain for a while.

[ANYWEATHER]

17 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

GFS day 9 is not a good look in my view - what a mess of cold rain  for most here

Day 9.....Day 5 is not sorted out yet let alone that far ahead....

[Ice Day]

4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

GEM too.

 

Apologies, I meant the GEM.  Have corrected it now..... there's too much going on 

[Drifter]

Just a word of warning - GEM snow charts are absolutely useless. 

I’m surprised it isn’t showing us snowbound today!

Edited January 11 by Drifter

[CoventryWeather]

The models seemed to have shifted north again for next week's low.. perhaps a slight trend. 

Also to note models have a wedge afterwards, which allows the cold to remain over the UK - the GFS is currently an outlier but generally struggles with small features like this and also has a bias with the Atlantic jet, so I'd expect this to move towards the others on the coming days.

FI is around 96-120 hrs at the moment due to how the lows interacts and the cleanliness of the retrogression. 

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

T168 ukmo will be interesting. 

Indeed.  I've closed gfs browser as it's  completely gone wrong  from day 7 and looks all other the place 

[frosty ground]

Are you not interested in a rather large and compact storm then?

[tight isobar]

Just now, Drifter said:

Just a word of warning - GEM snow charts are absolutely useless. 

I’m surprised it isn’t showing is snowbound today!

All precipitation charts as as useful as a blind man ona sight seeing holiday at the juncture..but take note when there’s a blend of the  craved … via all outs- .. as there is.

[Mike Poole]

15 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Uncharted territory perhaps Mike? Perhaps the pv could fall in a way that its not usually accustomed too!

My theory, is that it is down to the Canadian warming in early December which caused such a significant weakness in the strat vortex, that it didn’t form properly, and that has allowed the amplified trop patterns to do things they wouldn’t normally be able to do, such as propagate splits up to 10hPa.  

[geordiekev]

32 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

First signs of a wedge appearing at 144 on the GFS off the ESB.  Could be good this!? (hopefully haven't jinxed it!).

 

And look at the differences at the same point on the 6z.  Massive uncertainty, certainly for the GFS

Any more West based & the GH will end up in Scandi

[karlos1983]

8 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Just a word of warning - GEM snow charts are absolutely useless. 

I’m surprised it isn’t showing us snowbound today!

GEM performed pretty well with Mondays snow from the east. Think it was one of the only models that predicted such widespread falling snow across the south ….

Edited January 11 by karlos1983

[Spah1]

19 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

GFS day 9 is not a good look in my view - what a mess of cold rain  for most here

Who cares it’s completely wrong. 

[Battleground Snow]

Very very nice UKMO 168

[Allseasons-Si]

UKMO 168

thank you very much.

Edited January 11 by Allseasons-Si
Added charts

[Djdazzle]

13 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Nah, once GFS gets in a pickle like this you just have to let it get on with it. 

FI is probably day 6 at the moment. 

I'd say day 5 at a push at the moment!

[Ali1977]

V v v v nice

[Ice Day]

The UKMO at 168 is a beaut.

 

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Very very nice UKMO 168

850s, nice, we can live with that!  Puts us in a great place for the chaos when the block does fail.

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Very very nice UKMO 168

Txt book arctic impact flow- and pop ups galore…