Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

[That ECM]

Ukmo says I’m going to be ignored for 10 days at least again.

Edited January 16 by That ECM

[Cold Winter Night]

"Look for Scandi blocking in February."

GFS: "Like this?"

[Derecho]

Ahhhh good ol' GFS with an 1040mb high stretching from Ireland to Mongolia.... likely overreacting to a signal but lets hope it is a valid signal. El Nino winters tend to be backloaded....

The start of ridging to the NE is at T216 so that isn't too far away. An early trendsetter or one for the bin?

[sebastiaan1973]

4 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

"Look for Scandi blocking in February."

GFS: "Like this?"

Who's quote is that? 

[Pembroke Dangler]

Just now, sebastiaan1973 said:

Who's quote is that? 

I spy with my little eye a scandi high

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,did not have to wait long for northern blocking to show it’s hand with Marco Patanga stating that Easterly QBO looks to have occurred all pointing to another round of very cold temperatures with a -NAO all due to SSW reoccurring all possible to begin before the end of the month.Fingers crossed of course 

[cyclonic happiness]

The GFS is evil!! how can it keep doing this to us?  another easterly to chase in FI, I'm sure the devil programmes their computers

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, cyclonic happiness said:

The GFS is evil!! how can it keep doing this to us?  another easterly to chase in FI, I'm sure the devil programmes their computers

Control 

[SqueakheartLW]

16 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Here we go, next cold chase starts at T+300, according to the gfs.

That's some serious WAA there. Looks very similar to the pattern just before BFTE 2018

[Cold Winter Night]

3 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Who's quote is that? 

It's funny how much talk there has been about a back loaded winter, seasonal models and EC46 showing a blocked February, and lo and behold, the first day February appears in the FI charts, it features a monster Scandi High

Now let's get it to 0h, without tripping over all the hurdles in between...

[MKN]

38 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

Not often you see this type of anomaly lurking about Scandi... that's a decent signal.. here we go again !

Them charts at +288 hours are as reliable as any other chart at that range. More or less pure guesswork.

[Snowboy111]

Going for a nap. Wake me up in 2 weeks. I expect good news !!

[phil nw.]

15 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not sure if it does happen it will be strat lead, its more likely from trop lead tropical forcing in the pacific.

Yes I think so feb.The split today quickly reforms hence the collapse of our block later this week.

It looks like any Scandinavian heights will come from the expected mjo movement and momentum increases.

Good to see Gfs is starting to pick this up.

[Eagle Eye]

Suspects this is a slightly early reaction to the rising AAM. However, until the sharp rising event happens and the pooling of momentum distributes, I don't think the models will settle on any one feature. The long term is far from being resolved like this cold period was (sort of) in my opinion. For now, I'm going to stick to the mean. Don't be surprised if it's gone next run, it'll be very likely to be gone but it's a sign of what the rising AAM over the next week could possibly push. I'll do a proper update maybe later or tomorrow. 

[daz_4]

Would bet that GFS Op is the coldest outlier for Central Europe. 

[bluearmy]

Not quite as ridiculous as it looks but gfs op definitely over doing the signal at this time.  Something to follow in fi for a few runs to see how long we have to wait for it to repeat 
 

[That ECM]

I understand why some can’t be bothered with another chase, stick with ukmo out to T120. 
 

some of us enjoy theme/cold hunting.

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, phil nw. said:

Yes I think so feb.The split today quickly reforms hence the collapse of our block later this week.

It looks like any Scandinavian heights will come from the expected mjo movement and momentum increases.

Good to see Gfs is starting to pick this up.

It could be a downwelling wave from the warming at the end dec into Jan. three to four weeks wouldn’t be outside the expected range. The cross sectional of the atmosphere later may show how the weaker flow comes about through the run. 

[Eagle Eye]

Just now, bluearmy said:

It could be a downwelling wave from the warming at the end dec into Jan. three to four weeks wouldn’t be outside the expected range. The cross sectional of the atmosphere later may show how the weaker flow comes about through the run. 

Unlikely, the surface patterns seem surface driven and generally the vortex is in a recovery state. Whilst I realise this is the 00Z run, I find this the most likely solution. Wavebreaking is too weak from the major SSW so it won't be that and the reflection from the minor SSW has already happened. 

[AO-]

5 hours ago, AO- said:

To conclude. Two members are synoptically interesting at day 12. So there still is potential from the 27-28th onwards. Now we have to get it within the reliable with some improvements.

This is what I mean by improvements. Great run of GFS12. 

 

[Troubleatmill]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Not quite as ridiculous as it looks but gfs op definitely over doing the signal at this time.  Something to follow in fi for a few runs to see how long we have to wait for it to repeat 
 

Looking at the early stamps, it's not without support, not much.. but it's there, see how the later frames fare

[Derecho]

They are some GFS ens that go for a more anticyclonic outlook by the 25th but whether that leads to blocking or it just falls flat remains to be seen. Chilly in the south if there is little wind...

 OP

 

Others...

So some signs high pressure will try and push north. Could end up becoming exceptionally mild if it fails. At least it won't be like late December / early January... that was a seriously grim period of weather

[warrenb]

Interestingly the Meto Deep dive was emphasising the chances of high pressure for the week following next. Showed a chart for that week with a high bang over us.

[Scott Ingham]

Well that 12z gfs run is just what I hoped to see and on the 28th with a day for cold to rush across the 29th prediction is starting to look like a half decent call. Usual caveats it’s miles out and it’s just a brave punt obvs! I’m no expert!

[Mike Poole]

Some support for the op on the ensembles, height rise through the UK looks probable, Perturbation developing the Scandi high T276:

Promising…but a long way to go on this one yet.