Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️

[MAF]

4 minutes ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

Max gusts in the last 24hrs. 

With the exception of Odiham pretty much no where in England away from western coasts gusted over 60mph. 

Ah, but thats according to weather stations readings. Who's to say there weren't higher gust away from a weather station?

[Frosty hollows]

28 minutes ago, Gowon said:

It's fine for somebody to come and say " it wasn't too bad imby" - it's comments like "that wasn't a storm" which is annoying and especially for those that were impacted the greatest. It p***** me off and the winds didn't really affect me personally.

Exactly my thoughts- hence my rant! Odiham isn't a million miles from me- but just because we didn't experience winds to that extent doesn't mean they didn't happen

[Alderc 2.0]

1 minute ago, MAF said:

Ah, but thats according to weather stations readings. Who's to say there weren't higher gust away from a weather station?

Really?  Think it actually just suggests, and suggest extremely well anything over 60-65mph last night in that area was isolated and the Odiham gusts were very isolated. 

[Zenarcher]

The highest gusts from the Western Isles of Scotland,

Stornoway Port, 85mph at 1.00am
Stornoway, Met Office Site, 78mph at 2.00am
Lacklee, Isle of Harris, 78mph at 12.19am
Stornoway Airport, 76mph at 1.20am
South Uist, Met Office Site, 75mph at 1.00am
Castlebay Ferry Terminal, Isle of Barra, 74mph at 12.00am
Lochmaddy Ferry Terminal, North Uist, 73mph at 11.55pm
Breasclete, Isle of Lewis, 73mph at 6.19pm
Marybank, Stornoway, 73mph at 2.04am
Gravir, Isle of Lewis, 71mph at 6.34pm
Tobson, Isle of Lewis, 70mph at 6.19pm & 6.24pm
Benbecula Airport, 69mph at 12.20am
Leverburgh, Isle of Harris, 68mph at 12.39am & 12.44am
North Galson, Isle of Lewis, 68mph at 1.09am
Eorodale, Isle of Lewis, 68mph at 1.54am
Laxay, Isle of Lewis, 66mph at 12.44am
Isle of Berneray, 65mph at 11.59pm, 12.34am & 12.39am
Lower Bayble, Stornoway, 65mph at 1.24am
Drimsdale, South Uist, 61mph at 5.44pm
Garrabost, Stornoway, 60mph at 1.09am

[Katrine Basso]

Living in Thurrock is frustrating as the weather forecasts and weather warnings are based on a weather station 30 miles away that is 15 miles North of Southend.

The nearest weather station was in Greenhithe which was 10 miles away.  Now that has been removed, Met Office weather forecasts are very inaccurate as they are for a coastal area.  Thurrock should have got an amber warning as I am only 6 miles away from Kent.  The wind was much stronger than forecasted as the Met Office has not got any data for my particular area!

Edited January 22 by Katrine Basso

[Fiona Robertson]

16 minutes ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

Max gusts in the last 24hrs. 

With the exception of Odiham pretty much no where in England away from western coasts gusted over 60mph. 
 

Just pointing out the situation. Average stopping distance from 50mph is 53metres. 

That map is interesting. There were two separate amber warnings. South of the line on your map the wording said roof tiles may blow off. North of the line it said roofs may blow off. Both were amber warnings, but the wording was different. I remember this difference in wording because the northern one initially ended to the north of me, but then got extended south into northern England. Even within one warning type there is nuance which is found in the wording and the matrix.

Edited January 22 by Fiona Robertson
Space bar still borked. Edited to unmangle.

[Metwatch]

Despite the red warning being put out just after 11:30pm, hundreds of thousands still saw it within around an hour of the Met Office posting it on Twitter, so it still got out there quite well.

There isn't much difference between an amber and red, there can still be the same risk of highest impact, but they may issue red when there is a higher chance of that high impact which can be at very short notice. Personally I think people should take amber as seriously as a red... Better be safe than sorry.

[kate1]

I think the issue is that we get so many yellow warnings now people pretty much ignore them. If an amber warning can encourage people to take the weather seriously - securing things like trampolines which are likely to cause a hazard, doing any emergency home maintenance which might avoid serious damage, and most importantly keeping themselves safe - then surely that can only be a good thing. Admittedly here in my corner of Kent we have seen more damage and disruption in recent years under some yellow warnings than we did under last night's amber, but that's not something that can always be predicted in advance and in this case all the indications were that this could well be an extremely nasty storm for most of the UK.  The MetOffice have to be cautious where people's lives and homes are potentially at risk.

[Spikey M]

1 minute ago, kate1 said:

I think the issue is that we get so many yellow warnings now people pretty much ignore them. If an amber warning can encourage people to take the weather seriously - securing things like trampolines which are likely to cause a hazard, doing any emergency home maintenance which might avoid serious damage, and most importantly keeping themselves safe - then surely that can only be a good thing. Admittedly here in my corner of Kent we have seen more damage and disruption in recent years under some yellow warnings than we did under last night's amber, but that's not something that can always be predicted in advance and in this case all the indications were that this could well be an extremely nasty storm for most of the UK.  The MetOffice have to be cautious where people's lives and homes are potentially at risk.

The problem is people don't take the time to understand the warnings. They just look at the map and see they are under a yellow, amber or red warning and they think:

Yellow: it's going to be windy.

Amber: it's going to be REALLY windy 

Red: airborne cottages. 

But that isn't the case, the colour addresses 2 factors. Danger and LIKELIHOOD. The likelihood always seems to be overlooked. A yellow can mean either "we are confident that it's going to be windy" OR "there's a 0.01% chance of the strongest storm in history on thursday".

Until people stop to look at the matrix, they are going to keep accusing the Met of getting it wrong. Even when they haven't.

[Paul]

6 minutes ago, Spikey M said:

Until people stop to look at the matrix, they are going to keep accusing the Met of getting it wrong. Even when they haven't.

I agree that the matrix is an important part of the warnings. But, I'm wondering whether you're more highlighting an issue in the communication of the warnings and the matrix system itself, rather than anything else. I mean, if so many people aren't reading the warnings properly and potentially misunderstanding them, is it their fault or the warning's fault?

A warning ought to be as crystal clear as possible from the headline really, if you need to delve into the inner workings to see what's going on, I'm not sure that's ideal. 

Not Meto bashing by the way, as it's a difficult thing to get right, but the one thing a warning system ought not to be (imo) is confusing. 

[DJ Fart]

1 hour ago, Spikey M said:

Maybe my neighbour only lost those roof tiles psychologically. That'll save her some money.

 

Sorry, but this place really does descend into quite baffling silliness sometimes. 

What are you on about? Is your neighbour on here, is she? If a 50mph gust is enough to dislodge her tiles, I suspect she has greater issues!  

[Spikey M]

Just now, Paul said:

I agree that the matrix is an important part of the warnings. But, I'm wondering whether you're more highlighting an issue in the communication of the warnings and the matrix system itself, more than anything else. I mean, if so many people aren't reading the warnings properly and potentially misunderstanding them, is it their fault or the warning's fault?

A warning ought to be as crystal clear as possible from the headline really, if you need to delve into the inner workings to see what's going on, I'm not sure that's ideal. 

Not Meto bashing by the way, as it's a difficult thing to get right, but the one thing a warning system ought not to be (imo) is confusing. 

Absolutely. And it feels like it should be relatively simple to achieve. Either by having the matrix front and centre with the map, or by displaying likelihood as a percentage within the map. You have to wonder why they haven't. It must have occurred to them.

[DJ Fart]

1 hour ago, Fiona Robertson said:

Then I'll refrain from posting ANYTHING about damage to avoid being diagnosed.

Way to miss the point, Fi. You're in Scotland. It was very windy in Scotland. 

[jackpunch]

52 minutes ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

Max gusts in the last 24hrs. 

With the exception of Odiham pretty much no where in England away from western coasts gusted over 60mph. 
 

Just pointing out the situation. Average stopping distance from 50mph is 53metres. 

And that's not accurate. Loftus in Cleveland measured a gust of 76mph, a remote radar station near Alnwick, Northumberland measured one at 99mph.

Media now reporting 3 people dead as a result of the storm. 

[Ross90]

5 minutes ago, Paul said:

I agree that the matrix is an important part of the warnings. But, I'm wondering whether you're more highlighting an issue in the communication of the warnings and the matrix system itself, rather than anything else. I mean, if so many people aren't reading the warnings properly and potentially misunderstanding them, is it their fault or the warning's fault?

A warning ought to be as crystal clear as possible from the headline really, if you need to delve into the inner workings to see what's going on, I'm not sure that's ideal. 

Not Meto bashing by the way, as it's a difficult thing to get right, but the one thing a warning system ought not to be (imo) is confusing. 

I feel like it's a bit of both. If people are misunderstanding the warning system then maybe it should be made simpler. It should absolutely be tidied up a bit when there are multiple warnings as it just looks a mess and you can't even click on individual warnings now.

[kate1]

1 minute ago, Paul said:

I agree that the matrix is an important part of the warnings. But, I'm wondering whether you're more highlighting an issue in the communication of the warnings and the matrix system itself, rather than anything else. I mean, if so many people aren't reading the warnings properly and potentially misunderstanding them, is it their fault or the warning's fault?

A warning ought to be as crystal clear as possible from the headline really, if you need to delve into the inner workings to see what's going on, I'm not sure that's ideal. 

Not Meto bashing by the way, as it's a difficult thing to get right, but the one thing a warning system ought not to be (imo) is confusing. 

I totally agree - I'm sure it's only weather geeks like us who bother even to look at the matrix. I have mentioned on this group before that I find the warnings map very confusing and hard to use and making that more user friendly might help. Do we need a weather early warning system by text (one that works)? 

[DJ Fart]

4 minutes ago, kate1 said:

I totally agree - I'm sure it's only weather geeks like us who bother even to look at the matrix. I have mentioned on this group before that I find the warnings map very confusing and hard to use and making that more user friendly might help. Do we need a weather early warning system by text (one that works)? 

I agree, I think it's only us types who care. If my parents, for example, received a text saying "It's going to be very windy tomorrow", I think that suffices. Obviously I'm being purposefully simplistic, but it's people like us who then pore over the details, of just how windy it is, for example. For the vast majority of the public, they just need to know in decent time that there is going to be some weather which is out of the ordinary, be that heat, cold, wind, rain, snow, whatever. There will always be individuals who need greater detail, but they will a very small minority, I'd suspect. 

Edited January 22 by DJ Fart
Incorrect wording

[Frosty hollows]

8 minutes ago, jackpunch said:

And that's not accurate. Loftus in Cleveland measured a gust of 76mph, a remote radar station near Alnwick, Northumberland measured one at 99mph.

Media now reporting 3 people dead as a result of the storm. 

Yep. The NE took a proper smashing in the early hours. Loftus is incredibly exposed,  but my family live about 10 miles away. Looking at their damage this morning I'd say their gusts may have been in the low 60s

[Frosty hollows]

54 minutes ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

Really?  Think it actually just suggests, and suggest extremely well anything over 60-65mph last night in that area was isolated and the Odiham gusts were very isolated. 

The Odiham gusts were very local given that stations 30 miles either side returned maximum wind speeds in the low 50s

[MAF]

18 minutes ago, Paul said:

I agree that the matrix is an important part of the warnings. But, I'm wondering whether you're more highlighting an issue in the communication of the warnings and the matrix system itself, rather than anything else. I mean, if so many people aren't reading the warnings properly and potentially misunderstanding them, is it their fault or the warning's fault?

A warning ought to be as crystal clear as possible from the headline really, if you need to delve into the inner workings to see what's going on, I'm not sure that's ideal. 

Not Meto bashing by the way, as it's a difficult thing to get right, but the one thing a warning system ought not to be (imo) is confusing. 

Exactly Paul, communication is by far the most important thing when trying to relay a message of any kind. So the most simple, effective, understandable method of communicating a warning should be adopted as opposed to the current one. Maybe the Met O need a communications officer for warnings as well as their press office staff for news. 

[birdman]

On 21/01/2024 at 11:50, birdman said:

Yes it's unbelievable really and just shows how some people live in a bubble. Unfortunately it's likely some poor soul will lose their life from this storm. One bad decision or wrong place wrong time and it's game over. The warning are there to minimise such things and prepare accordingly. Stay safe everyone  

Sad, and shows why warnings are issued  

Storm Isha live: Two die as Storm Isha brings down trees across UK - BBC News

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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People in Scotland and Northern Ireland die as a result of fallen trees, with warnings of another storm on the way.

 

[Jo Farrow]

1 hour ago, Metwatch said:

Despite the red warning being put out just after 11:30pm, hundreds of thousands still saw it within around an hour of the Met Office posting it on Twitter, so it still got out there quite well.

There isn't much difference between an amber and red, there can still be the same risk of highest impact, but they may issue red when there is a higher chance of that high impact which can be at very short notice. Personally I think people should take amber as seriously as a red... Better be safe than sorry.

But we can't tell where those thousands are located, loads in US seeing it on twitter doesn't count. No national TV broadcast had it in time for their late new and weather broadcasts at 10:30pm

[Kasim Awan]

This storm due to the wind direction was very orographically and topographically modulated which is why away from Glasgow area, areas affected by the sting jet and and low elevation parts of Northern Ireland, low level gusts rarely increased above 55mph. There are a few reasons for this. First is wind direction, southwesterlies reduce the >850mb vorticity over the West Midlands, Cheshire, greater Manchester, Sheffield and Leeds area. Manchester airport rarely gusted above 40mph, Leeds rarely above 50mph which is a lot lower than predicted. This direction also increases gusts over high ground and on the east coast due to the relative magnitude of atmospheric wavelengths at higher wind speeds. Basically stronger 700mb mean winds increase the wavelength for orographic modulation meaning effects of wind strengthening were felt further east so along the coast as opposed to central eastern areas. Higher ground areas though still experience usual strengthening with altitude plus acceleration. This is why 100mph was recorded at 500m asl Yorkshire and over 70mph on the east coast. The sting jet over Northern Ireland and Scotland was there but fairly widespread and it absorbed a significant amount of the pressure differential potential therefore reducing wind gusts over England. 106mph in Orkney indicative of a big absorption. These mechanisms both worked to reduce gusts over low level England. The orographic effects influential over northern England and the differential absorption further south. 

Edited January 22 by Kasim Awan

[Kasim Awan]

In terms of warnings the only issue for me was the late red warning which made no sense because high resolution output agreed on the 90mph+ swathe a lot earlier. There was no lower confidence 24 hours earlier.

Edited January 22 by Kasim Awan

[Jo Farrow]

Riding the storm - NATS Blog

NATS.AERO

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It’s very rare for a storm to blanket the whole of the UK and Ireland, as Storm Isha did yesterday. Rarer still for it to deliver the strength of winds that it did. The challenge for the aviation industry is the difficulty for...