Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️

[Lord Grogon]

Somebody made an interesting comment last night.

Usually for these big storms that track NW up the W side of the country, where you are a considerable distance from the centre of the low, to get big gusts, you are dependent on squall type events.

It was pointed out that the rain band that was quite showery, had "spread out" and merged into a more general front type setup. Hence without the squalls, the big gusts didn't happen so much. So for most of central and southern Britain, the max gusts were less than shown on the models. Assumption being of course that models didn't pick up the change in rain type, hence they overestimated the winds somewhat.

Further North of course, you pick up the tighter winds nearer the low centre, plus possible sting jet so stronger winds. Models seems to do just fine here, which is obviously where it matters the most!

Can't explain it anymore scientifically than this.  But for somebody who has been watching storms for 35 years, it does make sense. 

 

[ANYWEATHER]

1 hour ago, sunnijim said:

Who said anything about low winds?

It was a wild and blustery night.

There is nothing wrong with cutting through the hyperbole  and stating facts; and they are facts, not just Wishful thinking that continues to try and back  a now defunct idea that gusts went higher than 60mph in the SE widely.

Models were about 10mph over the top.

Even Langdon bay only managed 59mph as its highest gust.

If anyone can produce evidence of higher gusts, fine but let's not  start shooting people down if they don't have the populer view of it being a remarkable event.

There was plenty of that here last night as members dared to say winds speeds were unremarkable etc.

Yep ,good call from the gfs who spotted this windstorm days ago, ecm was always playing catchup. Yes it was a wild winters night for all, nothing historical , but notable as most of the country was effected by the strong winds..the worst of the winds were always modeled to be in the North which was a good call. Hope everyone is okay and minimum damage to their property etc.....☺

[Wold Topper]

1 hour ago, RebsAbbo said:

Well I for one am still waiting to make a cup of tea! Power lines definitely down (probably because they were only tied on with string in the first place) so impact is real. Power been off for over 12hrs now. Apparently Powergrid are sat in the local pub carpark for support…probably too windy still for someone to go up a pole yet?!

Can anyone make me a brew?

Ive had to go to work for a brew , its annoying because its the same lines in the same place for a 3rd time in 4 years, all because they trim the trees rather cutting them back properly 

Edited January 22 by Wold Topper
Clarity

[MAF]

or doing their best to get things going again. let's remember the staff have the same issues the rest of the public do. they are, after all trying.

[Man With Beard]

55 minutes ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

Completely disagree, your statement is too broad, the storm was not severe for a large part of the heavily populated south where the amber was never needed and never should have been issued, not just my or my next door neighbours back garden. 
 

Further north conditions just about warranted the Amber warning, but I’ve still seen very few (I don’t think there were any) official gusts over 75mph for lowland stations away from exposed coasts. Clearly aviation and ferries where affected along with the trains but again this all very temporary and especially on train front their lazy striking staff cause far more disruption than any weather event we’ve seen recently 

I maintain my position too many warnings are issued full stop and like yesterday they are often too aggressively worded and too widespread. Fortunately we have very few true life  threatening meteorological events in the UK however the number of warning suggests otherwise i maintain that a ‘cry wolf’ situation is in the making where people just won’t prepare for when something truly impactful and devastating comes along. 

 

It was a tough one to call, though? For us on the coast, I'd say there's been many a similar storm with a yellow warning, but I think our coastal areas are better able to deal with a 60mph wind than areas inland, and perhaps an amber warning at 60mph is appropriate away from the coast? In which case, probably the right call just about. 

And who would have thought Odiham, 30 miles directly inland from me, would clock 70mph, whilst local coastal stations wouldn't even get to 60mph? It was a strange, patchy storm.

[SilverWolf]

I spent years using risk assessments in care/support work. Even if a possible situation was regarded to be ‘high’ and ‘likely’, the situations didn’t occur all the time. But that the point of a risk assessment - be ready in case it does. No different to weather warnings. Amber warning is not ‘definite’ and anyone who thinks otherwise and is disappointed after the fact  needs to learn how the warnings work.
We’re all at least a little weather savvy on here, so perhaps we don’t need the warnings so much - how many here look at the models or opinions about them most days? I do. I knew this storm was ‘probably’ coming days ago. But my parents wouldn’t have. I’m sure they were grateful for the warnings on the BBC, ‘just in case’, and even more grateful some of the forecasting models weren’t correct. I haven’t talked to them yet, but I bet my Dad was out checking the garden to make sure certain things weren’t vulnerable to strong wind.

[sunnijim]

With the benefit of hindsight here is my take on why winds were at the low end of any predictions over England

The original position of the Low some 10 days ago was to cross Southern Ireland with the centre over Southern Scotland.

Corrections North over the coming days never really altered the progged winds to any great degree over England.

As others have said, instead of benefiting from the tight core around the Lows centre to generate high winds we became reliant on squall lines and high pressure playing ball over the continent to squeeze the English isobars.

Three  things seem to have occurred, the high over Europe a little further South than progged, the Low further North and no squalls.

So the extremes moved North into N Ireland and Scotland.

Edited January 22 by sunnijim

[Fiona Robertson]

1 hour ago, Frosty hollows said:

I'm going to have a quick rant because I am fed up of seeing the same moans after an event like last night.

First of all,I hope everyone is safe. It's pretty obvious scooting around the forums that there's been a significant amount of damage overnight and some areas are more badly affected than others. However, it's been a pretty nationwide event, even imby where we got away relatively lightly.

However, I get really cheesed off with people who tell us this was a non event ( this is in general) and use it as an excuse to beat the models/metO/ other keen forcasters on here. Forecasting isn't an exact science and that's what makes it fun. The clue is in the name.

So, if you got away Scot free last night, pethaps be greatful it didn't pan out as forecast. There's a lot of upset, cold and worried people across the country about to start a clear up/ attempt to get to work/ check in on families. Just because it didn't happen in your back garden doesn't mean it didn't happen. Be greatful and maybe extend a little thought and sympathy to those who are facing a pretty crappy day.

Thank you for writing the post I was getting ready to write until I came across yours. Even during the approach of the storm I was becoming irritated that some seem to expect warning areas to be precise to within a few metres and the assumption that the warned-of weather is guaranteed. It is a warning, it uses terminology like probability, possibility, may, chance of... tentative language

 

43 minutes ago, DJ Fart said:

It's often the way that people get swept up in the moment and want to be seen to be 'joining in' or experiencing the very worst when, in reality, they're not.  In a world where calm and reason doesn't get heard, people resort to hyperbole to get themselves noticed.

@DJ Fart I'm going to give the benefit of the doubt and assume that you didn't intend to suggest that there may be peeps on here lying to get attention. I'm glad that you suffered no or very little damage and I'll celebrate that whilst I break out my little chainsaw to deal with the bird cherry that's come down in my garden across my front path.

 

2 hours ago, Nick L said:

Absolute joke from the Met Office. Another red warning issued in the dead of night for an event that was already happening.

A quick read of the thread here demonstrates why the MetO are very wary of putting out warnings. It seems that there is a sizeable number who begrudge warnings for peeps in an area which may be about to get hit hard. This has been a theme for the last few months and I noticed it about 2 weeks after England had their October heatwave. As Scotland had a red warning for rain slapped on the east coast the complaints began, with peeps not realising that as they basked in their heatwave, that Scotland had had widespread flooding, some places were still flooded, the ground was saturated and a man had died. Sure enough,the atmospheric river hit the east coast of Scotland and peeps were flooded out of their homes again. However the complaints about Scotland's red warning stopped when a rain band from the system crossed the Midlands. Then out went the cry "We didn't get adequately warned!" The MetO can't win - they're damned if they do and damned if they don't. Yes, I've been cross to get a snow warning two hours into a blizzard. Postcasts help nobody. Last night, however, the red warning was in advance, albeit by only 90-odd minutes and it was a far more uncertain situation.

Maybe if peeps were better able to understand the warning system, to grasp the tentative nature of them, they'd be more inclined to thank their lucky stars when they escape the worst of the impacts instead of begrudging the warning for peeps who did get hit hard. I'm sorry, I've had a pretty much sleepless night, I'm tired, I'm fraught and I have the "delight" of going out there in a still strong wind to chainsaw my beloved bird cherry.

[snefnug]

1 minute ago, Fiona Robertson said:

Thank you for writing the post I was getting ready to write until I came across yours. Even during the approach of the storm I was becoming irritated that some seem to expect warning areas to be precise to within a few metres and the assumption that the warned-of weather is guaranteed. It is a warning, it uses terminology like probability, possibility, may, chance of... tentative language

 

@DJ Fart I'm going to give the benefit of the doubt and assume that you didn't intend to suggest that there may be peeps on here lying to get attention. I'm glad that you suffered no or very little damage and I'll celebrate that whilst I break out my little chainsaw to deal with the bird cherry that's come down in my garden across my front path.

 

A quick read of the thread here demonstrates why the MetO are very wary of putting out warnings. It seems that there is a sizeable number who begrudge warnings for peeps in an area which may be about to get hit hard. This has been a theme for the last few months and I noticed it about 2 weeks after England had their October heatwave. As Scotland had a red warning for rain slapped on the east coast the complaints began, with peeps not realising that as they basked in their heatwave, that Scotland had had widespread flooding, some places were still flooded, the ground was saturated and a man had died. Sure enough,the atmospheric river hit the east coast of Scotland and peeps were flooded out of their homes again. However the complaints about Scotland's red warning stopped when a rain band from the system crossed the Midlands. Then out went the cry "We didn't get adequately warned!" The MetO can't win - they're damned if they do and damned if they don't. Yes, I've been cross to get a snow warning two hours into a blizzard. Postcasts help nobody. Last night, however, the red warning was in advance, albeit by only 90-odd minutes and it was a far more uncertain situation.

Maybe if peeps were better able to understand the warning system, to grasp the tentative nature of them, they'd be more inclined to thank their lucky stars when they escape the worst of the impacts instead of begrudging the warning for peeps who did get hit hard. I'm sorry, I've had a pretty much sleepless night, I'm tired, I'm fraught and I have the "delight" of going out there in a still strong wind to chainsaw my beloved bird cherry.

Spot on!  Hope you sort out the tree.

[Fiona Robertson]

1 hour ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

If the Amber warning, or infact no warning had been issued at all last night  would you have done anything differently that could have resulted in you ended up in harms way or a life threatening situation? 

I'll answer for me. YES!

[Penguin16]

3 hours ago, Nick L said:

Absolute joke from the Met Office. Another red warning issued in the dead of night for an event that was already happening.

You’re completely right but some can’t have any criticism of the met office it’s sacrilege. It goes against the entire argument from earlier as to why there wasn’t a red. It’s overnight so impacts are less. Deary me. The UKV model was showing similar gusts for that area all day. It’s a joke issuing it at that time. Who the f is going to see that from the general public. They may as well sent out a carrier pigeon at that time.

Edited January 22 by Penguin16

[Gowon]

13 minutes ago, Fiona Robertson said:

Thank you for writing the post I was getting ready to write until I came across yours. Even during the approach of the storm I was becoming irritated that some seem to expect warning areas to be precise to within a few metres and the assumption that the warned-of weather is guaranteed. It is a warning, it uses terminology like probability, possibility, may, chance of... tentative language

 

@DJ Fart I'm going to give the benefit of the doubt and assume that you didn't intend to suggest that there may be peeps on here lying to get attention. I'm glad that you suffered no or very little damage and I'll celebrate that whilst I break out my little chainsaw to deal with the bird cherry that's come down in my garden across my front path.

 

A quick read of the thread here demonstrates why the MetO are very wary of putting out warnings. It seems that there is a sizeable number who begrudge warnings for peeps in an area which may be about to get hit hard. This has been a theme for the last few months and I noticed it about 2 weeks after England had their October heatwave. As Scotland had a red warning for rain slapped on the east coast the complaints began, with peeps not realising that as they basked in their heatwave, that Scotland had had widespread flooding, some places were still flooded, the ground was saturated and a man had died. Sure enough,the atmospheric river hit the east coast of Scotland and peeps were flooded out of their homes again. However the complaints about Scotland's red warning stopped when a rain band from the system crossed the Midlands. Then out went the cry "We didn't get adequately warned!" The MetO can't win - they're damned if they do and damned if they don't. Yes, I've been cross to get a snow warning two hours into a blizzard. Postcasts help nobody. Last night, however, the red warning was in advance, albeit by only 90-odd minutes and it was a far more uncertain situation.

Maybe if peeps were better able to understand the warning system, to grasp the tentative nature of them, they'd be more inclined to thank their lucky stars when they escape the worst of the impacts instead of begrudging the warning for peeps who did get hit hard. I'm sorry, I've had a pretty much sleepless night, I'm tired, I'm fraught and I have the "delight" of going out there in a still strong wind to chainsaw my beloved bird cherry.

There seems to be a lot of ignorant people on this forum - "It didn't happen IMBY so it's overhyped" 

[chapmanslade]

1 hour ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

If the Amber warning, or infact no warning had been issued at all last night  would you have done anything differently that could have resulted in you ended up in harms way or a life threatening situation? 

You are just being contrary now. On the basis of what you have said there would never be any warnings, which is a completely different discussion.

An amber warning was issued and the post storm evidence for Wiltshire suggests that it was appropriate to warn people about dangers on the road / rail / air etc as there were indeed dangers such as fallen trees. Not sure why you have a problem with that?

[Spikey M]

1 hour ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

Completely disagree, your statement is too broad, the storm was not severe for a large part of the heavily populated south where the amber was never needed and never should have been issued, not just my or my next door neighbours back garden. 
 

Further north conditions just about warranted the Amber warning, but I’ve still seen very few (I don’t think there were any) official gusts over 75mph for lowland stations away from exposed coasts. Clearly aviation and ferries where affected along with the trains but again this all very temporary and especially on train front their striking staff cause far more disruption than any weather event we’ve seen recently 

I maintain my position too many warnings are issued full stop and like yesterday they are often too aggressively worded and too widespread. Fortunately we have very few true life  threatening meteorological events in the UK however the number of warning suggests otherwise i maintain that a ‘cry wolf’ situation is in the making where people just won’t prepare for when something truly impactful and devastating comes along. 

 

And this is why people should pay more attention to the risk matrix, rather than just the warning map. The risk was substantial, the likelihood was not. People claiming "crying wolf" usually just haven't looked.

[chapmanslade]

1 hour ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Common sense....!

But we do have a warning system in place. If you choose to ignore it then so be it. Common sense doesn't always apply as often it is based on incorrect assumptions.

[Frosty hollows]

1 hour ago, rwtwm said:

I can only assume the escalation to red is useful for on duty responders, and perhaps government/council funding rather than the wider public in this instance?

I agree it does seem mad to upgrade in the dead of night, but if it was only for Joanne Public checking the app, it seems unlikely they'd have bothered?

Just a reminder that a lot, maybe most, of our maintenance staff/ oncall responders will be working at night (2 of my family members are maintenance shift workers). The red warning will be mostly geared at those who are responding to possibly stand down until the wind abates. For most of us,tucked up in our beds, it matters not a jot if we've headed earlier warnings and battened down the hatches.. They're not issued for fun- lives are at risk and these warnings save lives.

I'm thankful this was a Sunday evening/night event and that our overworked emergency services weren't pulled to breaking point. Maybe the metO should just go back to issuing alerts to them and not the public if they're going to get such negative responses from us

22 minutes ago, Fiona Robertson said:

Thank you for writing the post I was getting ready to write until I came across yours. Even during the approach of the storm I was becoming irritated that some seem to expect warning areas to be precise to within a few metres and the assumption that the warned-of weather is guaranteed. It is a warning, it uses terminology like probability, possibility, may, chance of... tentative language

 

@DJ Fart I'm going to give the benefit of the doubt and assume that you didn't intend to suggest that there may be peeps on here lying to get attention. I'm glad that you suffered no or very little damage and I'll celebrate that whilst I break out my little chainsaw to deal with the bird cherry that's come down in my garden across my front path.

 

A quick read of the thread here demonstrates why the MetO are very wary of putting out warnings. It seems that there is a sizeable number who begrudge warnings for peeps in an area which may be about to get hit hard. This has been a theme for the last few months and I noticed it about 2 weeks after England had their October heatwave. As Scotland had a red warning for rain slapped on the east coast the complaints began, with peeps not realising that as they basked in their heatwave, that Scotland had had widespread flooding, some places were still flooded, the ground was saturated and a man had died. Sure enough,the atmospheric river hit the east coast of Scotland and peeps were flooded out of their homes again. However the complaints about Scotland's red warning stopped when a rain band from the system crossed the Midlands. Then out went the cry "We didn't get adequately warned!" The MetO can't win - they're damned if they do and damned if they don't. Yes, I've been cross to get a snow warning two hours into a blizzard. Postcasts help nobody. Last night, however, the red warning was in advance, albeit by only 90-odd minutes and it was a far more uncertain situation.

Maybe if peeps were better able to understand the warning system, to grasp the tentative nature of them, they'd be more inclined to thank their lucky stars when they escape the worst of the impacts instead of begrudging the warning for peeps who did get hit hard. I'm sorry, I've had a pretty much sleepless night, I'm tired, I'm fraught and I have the "delight" of going out there in a still strong wind to chainsaw my beloved bird cherry.

I'm sorry this happened to you. I hope you and your animals are safe and recover quickly

[Ross90]

It was the longevity more than anything else that made it a notable storm here. 10 hrs of 50mph + gusts between 5pm and 3am and 60mph + between around 9:30pm and 1am. The peak gusts were around 70mph but never quite made it into the 70s where I am so it wasn't one of the most severe storms I've seen but it was still a step up from a typical winter gale.

[Nick123]

So it seems the core of the strongest winds went into north Northumberland instead of the central belt as there was a gust of 99mph? Or was that just a freak gust?

[Fiona Robertson]

2 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

Just a reminder that a lot, maybe most, of our maintenance staff/ oncall responders will be working at night (2 of my family members are maintenance shift workers). The red warning will be mostly geared at those who are responding to possibly stand down until the wind abates. For most of us,tucked up in our beds, it matters not a jot if we've headed earlier warnings and battened down the hatches.. They're not issued for fun- lives are at risk and these warnings save lives.

I'm thankful this was a Sunday evening/night event and that our overworked emergency services weren't pulled to breaking point. Maybe the metO should just go back to issuing alerts to them and not the public if they're going to get such negative responses from us

I'm sorry this happened to you. I hope you and your animals are safe and recover quickly

Thank you. Without the extension of the more severe amber warning yesty (from "roof tiles may blow off" to "roofs may blow off"), I would have been out checking on the horses all night. As it was I made the decision that it was too dangerous and that may be the only reason I didn't end up under the bird cherry when it came down or hit by the multiple branches of beech trees that snapped. The horses are fine, but so nervous that they're dangerous, the roof tiles and roof are intact, the chimney stack is still there.

[Atmogenic]

nothing out of the ordinary here, a bit of loud wind with some rain but that is all. Did make for a nice sleep though  

[chapmanslade]

11 minutes ago, Penguin16 said:

You’re completely right but some can’t have any criticism of the met office it’s sacrilege. It goes against the entire argument from earlier as to why there wasn’t a red. It’s overnight so impacts are less. Deary me. The UKV model was showing similar gusts for that area all day. It’s a joke issuing it at that time. Who the f is going to see that from the general public. They may as well sent out a carrier pigeon at that time.

Not everybody is asleep during the night. Many people work at night and the information gets used by authorities and Governments beyond the information to the general public. 

A red warning was issued appropriately and will have been acted upon by authorities. Red warnings are only issued when there is certainty of severe impacts. They are rightly issued rarely and for short periods at short notice.

As an example Aerodrome Weather Warnings were issued yesterday by the Met Office as part of the warning system, and as we know it was pretty chaotic last night in the aviation world so entirely appropriate.

 

 

[CoventryWeather]

3 hours ago, Frosty hollows said:

I'm going to have a quick rant because I am fed up of seeing the same moans after an event like last night.

First of all,I hope everyone is safe. It's pretty obvious scooting around the forums that there's been a significant amount of damage overnight and some areas are more badly affected than others. However, it's been a pretty nationwide event, even imby where we got away relatively lightly.

However, I get really cheesed off with people who tell us this was a non event ( this is in general) and use it as an excuse to beat the models/metO/ other keen forcasters on here. Forecasting isn't an exact science and that's what makes it fun. The clue is in the name.

So, if you got away Scot free last night, pethaps be greatful it didn't pan out as forecast. There's a lot of upset, cold and worried people across the country about to start a clear up/ attempt to get to work/ check in on families. Just because it didn't happen in your back garden doesn't mean it didn't happen. Be greatful and maybe extend a little thought and sympathy to those who are facing a pretty crappy day.

I absolutely agree with this word to word. Think people need to consider the fact the warnings are now possibly showing the worse case scenario, as that can't be ruled out in the world we live in anymore. 

Everyone got strong winds, and that's the reason why there was a countrywide yellow warning. Plenty of disruption to trains around here and that's affected people working and travelling to schools and stuff. The amber warnings posed a threat to serious winds inland (50/60mph is rare here so I know why it was given) and the red warning (albeit late) was due to winds being stronger in that area than modelled. 

Still got a long way to go before we get fully accurate modelling, but let's say the met office did a great job IMHO and are the reason why damages were limited. If they didn't put amber warnings out then no doubt people would still complain that it should have been issued. I think the more warnings the better, as it gives the possible risks of hazards and gets it more public - feel this should be done more in the future. 

[chapmanslade]

10 minutes ago, Ross90 said:

It was the longevity more than anything else that made it a notable storm here. 10 hrs of 50mph + gusts between 5pm and 3am and 60mph + between around 9:30pm and 1am. The peak gusts were around 70mph but never quite made it into the 70s where I am so it wasn't one of the most severe storms I've seen but it was still a step up from a typical winter gale.

Plus the large area. Usually when the south gets a storm the north is OK but almost the entire UK got a battering, hence the reasons for some plane diverts to Europe.

[Fiona Robertson]

6 minutes ago, Ross90 said:

It was the longevity more than anything else that made it a notable storm here. 10 hrs of 50mph + gusts between 5pm and 3am and 60mph + between around 9:30pm and 1am. The peak gusts were around 70mph but never quite made it into the 70s where I am so it wasn't one of the most severe storms I've seen but it was still a step up from a typical winter gale.

Salsburgh recorded a gust of 84mph. Elevation is 750-odd ft on the windward side of a hill. I'm on the lee side at 600-odd ft, so may have got a little protection. The high voltage rail lines were clobbered by damaged branches about 6pm-ish, before the worst even arrived. I saw the tree on fire at the bottom of the garden. Rail workers seemed to be out most of the night dealing with it. I have a feeling that the recent run of high winds have damaged some usually strong trees and last night was the final straw.

[cumbrian ice]

I can't believe some of the comments on here. So it maybe wasn't as strong as forecast on the south coast, but I and lots of others in the North and Scotland can tell you we got an absolute battering last night. Roofs ripped off, chimneys down, fallen trees etc. The most notable storm we've had for a long while .