Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️

[Derecho]

1 hour ago, Lord Grogon said:

Somebody made an interesting comment last night.

Usually for these big storms that track NW up the W side of the country, where you are a considerable distance from the centre of the low, to get big gusts, you are dependent on squall type events.

It was pointed out that the rain band that was quite showery, had "spread out" and merged into a more general front type setup. Hence without the squalls, the big gusts didn't happen so much. So for most of central and southern Britain, the max gusts were less than shown on the models. Assumption being of course that models didn't pick up the change in rain type, hence they overestimated the winds somewhat.

Further North of course, you pick up the tighter winds nearer the low centre, plus possible sting jet so stronger winds. Models seems to do just fine here, which is obviously where it matters the most!

Can't explain it anymore scientifically than this.  But for somebody who has been watching storms for 35 years, it does make sense. 

 

Yup, well spotted.

The pressure gradient force is ultimately what depicts the broad scale gusts across the country and the models can be pretty confident of these well in advance bar variation of a few mph, unless the precise timing of cyclogenesis comes into play / a secondary low is involved.

However it is the features that can form behind bands of rain, squalls or sting jets that can add a large degree of uncertainty in these situations. The squall line that moved out of Ireland when the storm was at its most intense didn't reorganise as it moved into NW England. 

We did get a few squally features later in the night but this was after the worst of the storms had passed.

I remember storm Ciara back in February 2020. The frequent gusts weren't particularly impressive but the large bands of squall lines did pack a punch and were in line with model expectations.

Eunice was a different beast and the SLP gradient was so big there was good confidence several days in advance the south of England would receive 70-80mph gusts (which oddly the Meto only issued a red warning at 4 in the morning for).

An example of where the models underestimated a storm was at the end of October 2021. What was meant to be a routine potent cold front had developed a deep but very small little low on the back of it that the models didn't pick up. The winds were much stronger then expected as a result but over localised areas.

Over a confined area this feature blew down many trees in a small line as it crossed from Dorset through to Lincolnshire, weakening and strengthening at various points. About 2500 passengers got stuck in Milton Keynes station as this feature took down a load of trees between Rugby and Northampton.

Edited January 22 by Derecho
Extra info

[DJ Fart]

52 minutes ago, Fiona Robertson said:

Thank you for writing the post I was getting ready to write until I came across yours. Even during the approach of the storm I was becoming irritated that some seem to expect warning areas to be precise to within a few metres and the assumption that the warned-of weather is guaranteed. It is a warning, it uses terminology like probability, possibility, may, chance of... tentative language

 

@DJ Fart I'm going to give the benefit of the doubt and assume that you didn't intend to suggest that there may be peeps on here lying to get attention. I'm glad that you suffered no or very little damage and I'll celebrate that whilst I break out my little chainsaw to deal with the bird cherry that's come down in my garden across my front path.

 

A quick read of the thread here demonstrates why the MetO are very wary of putting out warnings. It seems that there is a sizeable number who begrudge warnings for peeps in an area which may be about to get hit hard. This has been a theme for the last few months and I noticed it about 2 weeks after England had their October heatwave. As Scotland had a red warning for rain slapped on the east coast the complaints began, with peeps not realising that as they basked in their heatwave, that Scotland had had widespread flooding, some places were still flooded, the ground was saturated and a man had died. Sure enough,the atmospheric river hit the east coast of Scotland and peeps were flooded out of their homes again. However the complaints about Scotland's red warning stopped when a rain band from the system crossed the Midlands. Then out went the cry "We didn't get adequately warned!" The MetO can't win - they're damned if they do and damned if they don't. Yes, I've been cross to get a snow warning two hours into a blizzard. Postcasts help nobody. Last night, however, the red warning was in advance, albeit by only 90-odd minutes and it was a far more uncertain situation.

Maybe if peeps were better able to understand the warning system, to grasp the tentative nature of them, they'd be more inclined to thank their lucky stars when they escape the worst of the impacts instead of begrudging the warning for peeps who did get hit hard. I'm sorry, I've had a pretty much sleepless night, I'm tired, I'm fraught and I have the "delight" of going out there in a still strong wind to chainsaw my beloved bird cherry.

Absolutely not suggesting anyone would lie, it was the fact that people exaggerate (without even meaning to) based on a psychological need to belong.

[SilverWolf]

16 hours ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Sorry

No apology needed! Was said in jest only… 

[Fiona Robertson]

4 minutes ago, DJ Fart said:

Absolutely not suggesting anyone would lie, it was the fact that people exaggerate (without even meaning to) based on a psychological need to belong.

Then I'll refrain from posting ANYTHING about damage to avoid being diagnosed.

[Frosty hollows]

21 minutes ago, chapmanslade said:

Not everybody is asleep during the night. Many people work at night and the information gets used by authorities and Governments beyond the information to the general public. 

A red warning was issued appropriately and will have been acted upon by authorities. Red warnings are only issued when there is certainty of severe impacts. They are rightly issued rarely and for short periods at short notice.

As an example Aerodrome Weather Warnings were issued yesterday by the Met Office as part of the warning system, and as we know it was pretty chaotic last night in the aviation world so entirely appropriate.

 

 

Like I said in my post, a lot of maintenance is done overnight and many  workers will be responding to emergency calls e.g loss of power, trying to keep main road and rail routes clear, fire,ambulance, etc. However, there comes a point when it's too risky to do anything and the red is issued. Winds along the East coast really escalated in the early hours and it was the right thing to do to prevent loss of life

[Spikey M]

Maybe my neighbour only lost those roof tiles psychologically. That'll save her some money.

 

Sorry, but this place really does descend into quite baffling silliness sometimes. 

Edited January 22 by Spikey M

[Ross90]

Still gusting into the 40s here at the moment, if it continues until 3pm that'll be 24 consecutive hrs where max gusts never dropped below 40mph. 

People can only really describe how a storm, snow event etc was in their area and how it affected them. Personally I don't have any problem with people saying it wasn't that bad for them or in their area. It's much more annoying when people question how bad it was in someone else's area or suggest it was worse or better than they said.

[matty40s]

 

[andy989]

3 hours ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

Completely disagree, your statement is too broad, the storm was not severe for a large part of the heavily populated south where the amber was never needed and never should have been issued, not just my or my next door neighbours back garden. 
 

Further north conditions just about warranted the Amber warning, but I’ve still seen very few (I don’t think there were any) official gusts over 75mph for lowland stations away from exposed coasts. Clearly aviation and ferries where affected along with the trains but again this all very temporary and especially on train front their striking staff cause far more disruption than any weather event we’ve seen recently 

I maintain my position too many warnings are issued full stop and like yesterday they are often too aggressively worded and too widespread. Fortunately we have very few true life  threatening meteorological events in the UK however the number of warning suggests otherwise i maintain that a ‘cry wolf’ situation is in the making where people just won’t prepare for when something truly impactful and devastating comes along. 

 

The warnings were warranted, even if it didn’t amount to much where YOU are. More people lose their lives than you think in UK storms, often as a result of motoring/falling trees. Warnings at least give people an awareness to drive in accordance with conditions. Your comment comes across as completely ignorant. 

Edited January 22 by andy989

[Spikey M]

That last video

[Fiona Robertson]

2 minutes ago, Ross90 said:

Still gusting into the 40s here at the moment, if it continues until 3pm that'll be 24 consecutive hrs where max gusts never dropped below 40mph. 

People can only really describe how a storm, snow event etc was in their area and how it affected them. Personally I don't have any problem with people saying it wasn't that bad for them or in their area. It's much more annoying when people question how bad it was in someone else's area or suggest it was worse or better than they said.

I think that's what's bothering me the most. I know it's daft, but I was really fond of that bird cherry and to see it lying in the garden was a gut punch. The only damage it caused when it fell was to a weird variety of buddleja that I adore, but it'll recover. The house is fine, the stables are fine. My major worry is a hawthorn which is still in the process of uprooting at the side of the house. Our gusts are still pretty bad and they get worse every time a squall comes over. I checked the rainfall radar to work out if there was a safe time for me to be messing about with my chainsaw and the answer seems to be no. There are some squalls heading towards you and there's been some lightning strikes well to the west of you. That means they're heading towards me as well and I do NOT want to be out in that with my battery-powered chainsaw surrounded by tall trees 600ft above sea level.

[Alderc 2.0]

1 hour ago, Fiona Robertson said:

I'll answer for me. YES!

What did you do differently. 

[Gowon]

15 minutes ago, Ross90 said:

Still gusting into the 40s here at the moment, if it continues until 3pm that'll be 24 consecutive hrs where max gusts never dropped below 40mph. 

People can only really describe how a storm, snow event etc was in their area and how it affected them. Personally I don't have any problem with people saying it wasn't that bad for them or in their area. It's much more annoying when people question how bad it was in someone else's area or suggest it was worse or better than they said.

It's fine for somebody to come and say " it wasn't too bad imby" - it's comments like "that wasn't a storm" which is annoying and especially for those that were impacted the greatest. It p***** me off and the winds didn't really affect me personally.

[cheese]

It wasn't particularly bad here - no worse than a normal winter storm anyway. Very happy the worst of the winds avoided here.

[WYorksWeather]

As I suggested in the thread last night impacts here were slightly delayed. No damage early on but a pretty mangled fence panel that'll probably need replacing. And we were far from worst hit, so amber generally pretty well warranted I think at least for my area.

[Alderc 2.0]

18 minutes ago, andy989 said:

The warnings were warranted, even if it didn’t amount to much where YOU are. More people lose their lives than you think in UK storms, often as a result of motoring/falling trees. Warnings at least give people an awareness to drive in accordance with conditions. Your comment comes across as completely ignorant. 

People should not need to be told how to drive in wet and windy conditions. If it’s either of those it’s common sense and you should be cautious drive appropriately. Unfortunately trees can come down in lots of circumstances and impacts with cars, pedestrians or cyclists are going to happen. The instance above is tragic and horrible and was in one of the areas where winds were stronger and  warranted an amber warning but the fact the car hit an already fallen and that no one else in the car suggests this is incredibly unfortunate but also suggests the fallen tree wasn’t spotted, which with any modern car is difficult to understand given the lights would allow you to see down the road at least 50meters unless in the heaviest of fog/snow/rain. 

Edited January 22 by Alderc 2.0

[Fiona Robertson]

2 minutes ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

What did you do differently. 

I dug my drainage ditch in a lull in the winds as the warning alerted me of worse to come. I didn't check on the horses every hour through the night as I deemed it too dangerous to go wandering under my bird cherry and the huge beech trees that surround me. Thus, I may have avoided being under the bird cherry when it came down. I say "may" because I have no idea at what time it came down. I also avoided being flattened by the many beech tree branches that came down. In a yellow warning I would have checked on the horses hourly, all night. As it was, I confined myself to checking that the stables were still standing through a side window.

[Buzz]

59 minutes ago, cumbrian ice said:

I can't believe some of the comments on here. So it maybe wasn't as strong as forecast on the south coast, but I and lots of others in the North and Scotland can tell you we got an absolute battering last night. Roofs ripped off, chimneys down, fallen trees etc. The most notable storm we've had for a long while .

Yeah, but you know what some people are like - they'll downplay things that affect others but only while they themselves aren't inconvenienced, however those same people doing the downplaying are the ones who yell and scream when they are inconvenienced, and that's because they are often incapable of coping. It's the "I'm all right Jack" attitude.

[Alderc 2.0]

1 minute ago, Fiona Robertson said:

I dug my drainage ditch in a lull in the winds as the warning alerted me of worse to come. I didn't check on the horses every hour through the night as I deemed it too dangerous to go wandering under my bird cherry and the huge beech trees that surround me. Thus, I may have avoided being under the bird cherry when it came down. I say "may" because I have no idea at what time it came down. I also avoided being flattened by the many beech tree branches that came down. In a yellow warning I would have checked on the horses hourly, all night. As it was, I confined myself to checking that the stables were still standing through a side window.

Fair enough, and to be fair you were in an area where the higher warning was warranted. 

[andy989]

12 minutes ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

People should not need to be told how to drive in wet and windy conditions. If it’s either of those it’s common sense and you should be cautious drive appropriately. Unfortunately trees can come down in lots of circumstances and impacts with cars, pedestrians or cyclists are going to happen. The instance above is tragic and horrible and was in one of the areas where winds were stronger and  warranted an amber warning but the fact the car hit an already fallen and that no one else in the car suggests this is incredibly unfortunate but also suggests the fallen tree wasn’t spotted, which with any modern car is difficult to understand given the lights would allow you to see down the road at least 50meters unless in the heaviest of fog/snow/rain. 

You weren’t there, how are you still doubling down and trying to explain a death in an attempt  to prove your point? You are not the gate keeper to warnings. You specifically said in your original posts “Further north conditions just about warranted a warning”. The tree fell due to wind. If there wasn’t a storm that tree would not have fallen and that man would not have driven into said tree and die. That more than “just about warrants warning”.  You would have been better off just saying “warning unwarranted in my area” 

 

(Disclaimer, everyone is entitled to opinions about warnings or whatever, but the im right your wrong attitude about places miles away from where you live is absurd)

Edited January 22 by andy989

[Fiona Robertson]

I keep bringing it up, so here's my bird cherry. It was my favourite tree in the garden. It wasn't big, but it was old.

[Penguin16]

10 minutes ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

People should not need to be told how to drive in wet and windy conditions. If it’s either of those it’s common sense and you should be cautious drive appropriately. Unfortunately trees can come down in lots of circumstances and impacts with cars, pedestrians or cyclists are going to happen. The instance above is tragic and horrible and was in one of the areas where winds were stronger and  warranted an amber warning but the fact the car hit an already fallen and that no one else in the car suggests this is incredibly unfortunate but also suggests the fallen tree wasn’t spotted, which with any modern car is difficult to understand given the lights would allow you to see down the road at least 50meters unless in the heaviest of fog/snow/rain. 

A master in forensics from 500+ miles away. 

[Alderc 2.0]

Max gusts in the last 24hrs. 

With the exception of Odiham pretty much no where in England away from western coasts gusted over 60mph. 
 

4 minutes ago, Penguin16 said:

A master in forensics from 500+ miles away. 

Just pointing out the situation. Average stopping distance from 50mph is 53metres. 

[Fiona Robertson]

Just now, Alderc 2.0 said:

Max gusts in the last 24hrs. 

With the exception of Odiham pretty much no where in England away from western coasts gusted over 60mph. 
 

Then be thankful that you were spared the worst. Remember, the MetO has to deal with probabilities. They gave you a heads-up that you might get conditions warranting an amber, but they didn't promise them.

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, Penguin16 said:

You’re completely right but some can’t have any criticism of the met office it’s sacrilege. It goes against the entire argument from earlier as to why there wasn’t a red. It’s overnight so impacts are less. Deary me. The UKV model was showing similar gusts for that area all day. It’s a joke issuing it at that time. Who the f is going to see that from the general public. They may as well sent out a carrier pigeon at that time.

In very slight defence, they did put the Amber warning on a trajectory that meant it could turn red. But the public probably would not have been away of this. 

Is there a case for putting somewhere on a "red watch", a bit like a hurricane watch in the Caribbean? In other words "There's the chance the warning may be upgraded to red". That way, no overcommital from the Met Office, and people get adequate notice.