Storm Jocelyn, Amber ⚠️

[sunnijim]

31 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

Maybe that is for the Regional discussion group rather than Storm Jocelyn 24 hours ahead? Also Met Office warnings are not based solely on numerical limits, especially in one location. They look at wider impacts. The process has flaws but it does need some understanding. There can be heavy rain outside of a Rain warning area, Snow the same. This was the matrix for Isha

Hi, well aware of how the matrix works being a  weather geek and not Joe public...

It wasn't intended as a bash,  actually on the Isha thread I defended the use of Amber over England,after the event had a lesser impact than expected  over England.

This was purely the potential for irony if the aforementioned  gust(s) do occur tomorrow.

Edited January 22 by sunnijim

[matty40s]

Magnifico...

 

[Thunder Snow]

Well isha has certainly made a impact in Carlisle, something hit one of our window and cracked no idea what it was, fence completely gone. The trail of destruction around Carlisle, is eye opening. What was the max wind for Carlisle, in any event certainly the worst wind storm I've experienced left me.very nervous.

On to the next storm, it maybe won't be as strong but we have to take in to consideration that it's following on from isha which will have weakened structures and trees

[WYorksWeather]

Not sure which thread this belongs in but just had a really heavy and squally period of very heavy rain and some hail here. Quite bizarre as I don't think anything like it was forecast.

[Nick123]

1 hour ago, WYorksWeather said:

Not sure which thread this belongs in but just had a really heavy and squally period of very heavy rain and some hail here. Quite bizarre as I don't think anything like it was forecast.

Its also very windy here. It dropped earlier but now very gusty 

[Jo Farrow]

Preparations and planning for the arrival of Storm Jocelyn. There has been disruption and cancellations all day in Scotland on the railways, not enough time to repair, check and secure everything before the next bout.

[wimblettben]

XC weather is currently showing wind gusts for inland areas tomorrow that are almost the same as what ended up happening yesterday.

Gusts anywhere from 50-60mph is showing up from 6:00pm and 12:00am. For reference i had a max gust of 56mph on my handheld anemometer while up the local road at the peak of yesterdays storm so if these predictions come true then it will be virtually the same strength again at least for inland areas here.

[Ross90]

Seems to be a bit of uncertainty on this one still. Gfs has weakened it a bit and looks to have peak inland gusts no higher than 60mph but the ukv has 70mph gusts in parts of the central belt again around 1-2am on weds.

[Jo Farrow]

The UKV gust charts for this evening and Weds am, to show the shift of focus of potentially impactful winds. To ferries, road and rail users (M6, A1). The ground is wet, some trees and structures could have been weakened in ISHA.

[Nick123]

1 hour ago, Jo Farrow said:

The UKV gust charts for this evening and Weds am, to show the shift of focus of potentially impactful winds. To ferries, road and rail users (M6, A1). The ground is wet, some trees and structures could have been weakened in ISHA.

Chance of Amber being issued elsewhere?

[Jo Farrow]

39 minutes ago, Nick123 said:

Chance of Amber being issued elsewhere?

The Met Office usually do their routine updates around this time in the morning

[Fiona Robertson]

Even after looking at warning maps for years, this one is clear as mud. Is Edinburgh in the yellow wind or yellow rain warning? Turns out it's in the yellow wind warning and I only found that by scrolling the list of places under the matrix. Slapping both of the labels on the small area of yellow rain warning and putting the rain label further east although it's the wind warning that reaches further eastis counter-intuitive.

All that aside, Jocelyn doesn't look as scary as she did yesty afternoon, but still nasty. The winds are picking up here already.

[Nick123]

Already gusty here! Hope this isn't being underplayed 

[Jo Farrow]

Yet another storm, as Jocelyn hits on Tuesday night

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

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The rain from Storm Jocelyn will add to flooding concerns today as gales from the SW then W pickup this evening for the northwestern half of the UK. Scotland will see a wild night with further disruption

 

[Wade]

A lot of rain showing on the radar from Jocelyn at the minute, heaviest obviously up north but saying that it is quite soggy here at the minute, winds starting to pick up.

[Ross90]

It has been raining heavily for about 2 hrs now and it's supposed to continue for another 3-4 hrs before turning to heavy showers so I'd expect some flooding. Breezy too but it doesn't look like it'll be as strong as Isha.

[Nick123]

7 minutes ago, Ross90 said:

It has been raining heavily for about 2 hrs now and it's supposed to continue for another 3-4 hrs before turning to heavy showers so I'd expect some flooding. Breezy too but it doesn't look like it'll be as strong as Isha.

There's some very lively gusts around here. It's weird because the MO said wind wouldn't get strong until later when rain cleared

[Jordan S]

A notch down in wind speeds *generally* then on Isha further south over southern and southeast England inland this evening and overnight with 35-45mph but isolated 50-55mph possible though.. particularly for the far southeast of England so although not yellow warnings for these areas it will still be very windy so keep that in mind.

Midlands look to see maximum’s gusts reaching 50-55mph at times this evening and particularly overnight, so a few branches could come down especially weakened ones from storm Isha. 

North Wales and northern England looks like gusts could reach up to 65mph in some exposed inland areas and coastal, so certainly potential for more damage and disruption here but not likely to be as bad as Sunday night for most here with trees and fences mainly effected in terms of any damage in these areas, but for Northern Ireland and particularly Scotland although winds not as strong expected generally.. gusts of 60-70mph in places and 70-80mph in exposure for Scotland is certainly enough to cause significant damage to trees for example especially being weakened by Isha and causing additional damage to some buildings too for a few in these areas. Another evening and night to stay indoors in the worst effected areas

Edited January 23 by Jordan S
More detail on wind gusts and correction

[johnholmes]

39 minutes ago, Wade said:

A lot of rain showing on the radar from Jocelyn at the minute, heaviest obviously up north but saying that it is quite soggy here at the minute, winds starting to pick up.

Would you be kind enough to put your nearest town in your posts, that helps us all understand the local weather in your area

thanks

[Cain]

Winds picked up in south east wales 

[Jo Farrow]

Much of Britain is now in the mild southerly flow of the warm sector. Warm front rain.

to the top left of the image we can see shadow line from the cold front  and a change to clearer skies (with lively showers for later) (top 10 gusts in the hour shown)

currently, most of UK and Ireland is under the huge shield of cloud from Storm Jocelyn.

It's as the low centre passes the north of Scotland tonight when the strongest winds and gusts are forecast to hit

Edited January 23 by Jo Farrow
label for radar

[Glaswegianblizzard]

Already flooding in Inverclyde, we’ve had relentless rain here all morning which has just stopped. Wind is picking up a little now.

[wimblettben]

Based on the predictions i am expecting max gusts of 35-45mph this evening and tonight considering that its suppose to be a step down from Isha's winds which gave us max gusts of around 55mph.

But even if this is all we get there could still be some damage as even though normally winds around 40mph just give very blowy conditions with maybe some twigs coming down these winds are going to be hitting trees and structures that would have been weakened by Isha's 50 or 60mph gusts so we still will probably have some issues.

Edited January 23 by wimblettben

[snefnug]

Failure of a walk with the dog Penny on the tops.  She refused flat out to continue walk.. raining and gusts seemed stronger than Sunday’s at the equivalent time.  Guess she knows summat  I don’t…..

[Bradowl]

Just a wet and blustery day here in South Yorkshire, expecting winds to pick when clearer conditions arrive later.

Hopefully nothing too bad with maximum gusts 45-50mph.