Storm Jocelyn, Amber ⚠️

[Nick123]

Just now, Mcconnor8 said:

We share naming with them so they don't have too once it is named by the Irish Met 

So does that mean Amber will be issued?

[jmp223]

It could be, while we share naming with Met Eireann whether the storm is upgraded or downgraded for the UK is entirely up to the UKMO.  Personally I think we'll see an amber for central belt of Scotland down to Cumbria/ Lake district.

[Paul]

The Met Office have issued warnings for Jocelyn now, with Ambers in the far north and west of Scotland currently for Tuesday and Wednesday. 

 

UK weather warnings - Met Office

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 

[Jo Farrow]

1 hour ago, Nick123 said:

So does that mean Amber will be issued?

Any national Met service can name a storm. They have their own criteria, Met Eireann issue warnings in a different way to the UK Met Office (who use  impact based matrix, not numerical limits). The UK , Ireland and Netherlands are in a group (Western naming group) and discuss who will be most affected by a potential storm and then that country tends to name it., Often an Orange (or Amber warning) is issued too but they are separate things. Sometimes a different group name a storm that might still affect the UK, often Meteo France in the SW Naming group.

Storm name is a communication tool -

Warnings look at specific location/timings and level of Likelihood against Impacts. 

[Jo Farrow]

It is worth looking at the matrix for the various warning areas too, they are an important source of info. 

We have Scotland, N.Irelalnd down to N.Wales. (Medium impacts are possible)

South Wales, MIdlands up to Newcastle  (very likely to see low impacts here)

And the Amber for N & W Scotland

- see Pauls' post above. What these 3 levels of impacts are, is on the met office website

[MAF]

@Jo Farrow, Jo can you make the font bold and about 100 times bigger for that link about warnings..... just for the hard of understanding people out there

[Fiona Robertson]

Um... this doesn't look good.

[Jo Farrow]

21 minutes ago, MAF said:

@Jo Farrow, Jo can you make the font bold and about 100 times bigger for that link about warnings..... just for the hard of understanding people out there

Sorry I'm busy, I have a dead horse to flog

[Ross90]

This has been downgraded a bit on recent runs, at least for inland areas. At one point it looked like being worse than Isha for Scotland. It's now at 50 - 60mph inland and maybe 70mph in the Amber areas, mostly around the coasts. Probably more like a typical winter storm although potentially a bit more damaging given its only 2 days after a stronger storm.

[MAF]

18 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

Sorry I'm busy, I have a dead horse to flog

 

[Fiona Robertson]

20 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

Sorry I'm busy, I have a dead horse to flog

Leave the horses outta this!  Mine are looking miserable cos the gusts with the squalls are blowing the rain into their stables. Jocelyn has me worried. I have what remains of daylight between the squalls to chainsaw one downed small tree and one partially downed large hawthorn bush. If I don't get the hawthorn, Jocelyn will and will take out my fence with it.

Looking at the video on meteoblue of Jocelyn curling up is rather hair-raising. She seems more organised than Isha was at this stage. Does that mean that there's a chance Jocelyn will be past her strongest when she reaches us or does it mean she might be even stronger? Excuse me for asking such a dumb question, but I'm clutching at straws here.

[Josh Rubio]

This looks ominous… 

[Ross90]

It certainly looks the part but I'm guessing it's expected to weaken as it approaches us. Isha didn't really weaken much until it had already reached the UK.

[Mcconnor8]

19 minutes ago, Ross90 said:

It certainly looks the part but I'm guessing it's expected to weaken as it approaches us. Isha didn't really weaken much until it had already reached the UK.

Yeah Isha was strengthening for the entire time it was moving past us to below 950mb once it was North of Scotland, Jocelyn will be around 970mb and weakening when it is North of Scotland as well as not tracking as close to the UK as Isha did so less impact.

[NorthAtlanticCyclogenesis]

It's already maturing so will weaken a bit

 

Satellite images

WWW.MET.NO

 

[Fiona Robertson]

One of the things I dimly remember is the phenomenon of trees surviving horrendous winds and then coming down the following week in much lesser winds. It's down to the loosening of their rootballs in the first storm along with the action of rainwater in the newly formed air spaces. I'm expecting Jocelyn to bring down trees that survived Isha cos of this.

[lassie23]

On 17/01/2024 at 19:33, Scuba steve said:

And as you where , probably weeks of this dross before a sniff of cold again

You are more likely to catch a cold than see cold again this winter

[sunnijim]

So, Amber achieved 49mph as the highest gust at my local station Shoreham for Isha.

Can Joceyln go higher with not even a yellow in place?

M.O going for 50mph at Wednesday midnight.

GFS say 59mph..

 

[Fiona Robertson]

Can someone have a look at the video on meteoblue? If you look at the area of squally stuff coming in, you can see a small area of circulation NW of Scotland,just less than halfway to Iceland. On the left hand side of it there looks to be an air mass plunging south east into the squallsand the combination ofthat and the circulating area looks to be lining up the squallsinto squall lines. The NE edge of Jocelyn is squishing itfurther. Might be of absolutely no importance, but it looks kewel! 

Weather Satellite Images: United Kingdom

WWW.METEOBLUE.COM

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Discover high-resolution weather satellite images for United Kingdom. ✓ Live data ✓ Cloud movements ✓ Precipitation

 

[Scuba steve]

Social media site saying Cairngorm summit station recorded a gust of 168 mph though I can’t verify this 

[lassie23]

1 minute ago, Scuba steve said:

Social media site saying Cairngorm summit station recorded a gust of 168 mph though I can’t verify this 

that would remove roof tiles lol hopefully nobody has a house up there

[Scuba steve]

9 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

that would remove roof tiles lol hopefully nobody has a house up there

Cable car station that extremely well built ,lol

[Jo Farrow]

9 minutes ago, Scuba steve said:

Social media site saying Cairngorm summit station recorded a gust of 168 mph though I can’t verify this 

Storm Isha, this is Jocelyn for Tuesday night. I saw Glencoe mention that exact figure (not official) so ...

[Scuba steve]

Just now, Jo Farrow said:

Storm Isha, this is Jocelyn for Tuesday night. I saw Glencoe mention that exact figure (not official) so ...

Opps my bad 

[Jo Farrow]

19 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

So, Amber achieved 49mph as the highest gust at my local station Shoreham for Isha.

Can Joceyln go higher with not even a yellow in place?

M.O going for 50mph at Wednesday midnight.

GFS say 59mph..

 

Maybe that is for the Regional discussion group rather than Storm Jocelyn 24 hours ahead? Also Met Office warnings are not based solely on numerical limits, especially in one location. They look at wider impacts. The process has flaws but it does need some understanding. There can be heavy rain outside of a Rain warning area, Snow the same. This was the matrix for Isha