Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Purga]

Snow for Plymouth!

[feb1991blizzard]

@bluearmy

what stock do you place in the GEM ens? ( i know going back a good few years you used to post the NAEFS), I've never really used them until recently, I suspect you know why i'm asking but for those that don't -

 

[northwestsnow]

EC UKMO identical at 96

[Vortex3929]

 sheikhy try and change your theme to "simple" or rotate your phone to landscape. I've had this issue for a few days if it's the same for you as it is for me and ive posted about it in the help section forum. Until @Paul finds a permanent fix for this, the above has "resolved" it for me

1 hour ago, sheikhy said:

Right just a quick one!!nothing related to what the models are showing!!!anyone having issues with the layout on this forum!!texts and pics just cramped on top of each other?

See here if anyone else is having the same issue and to highlight it to Paul so he is aware it's not a single problem but affecting others

 

Edited February 2 by Vortex3929
Added quotes, links and fixed the terrible grammar

[Tim Bland]

ECM looks similar to its 00z run so far (at least locally) not a bad thing though if it still has the end of the week snow

[Man With Beard]

A wide variety of snow options by Thursday on the GEFS, and that nagging thought that these set-ups often correct south between T120 and T72?

[CoventryWeather]

I'm still expecting a southwards trend in any sliding lows later next week. 

Some models are keen on developing a wedge to the NW - again there are various strengths to this and models often underestimate these. This in turn favours a southern low like the GEM or GFS rather than the euros, but it's a case of watching.

I doubt this will be settled for another few days, perhaps as late as Wednesday. Wouldn't worry too much about the poor runs, as this is likely a starter compared to what the ECM46 is showing second half of Feb. 

[Cloud 10]

Increasingly  likely for a major snow event somewhere across the UK towards the end of next week,and as noted above these events are often modelled to far North.

 

Edited February 2 by Cloud 10

[That ECM]

ECM better than ukmo.

[Paul]

Latest synoptic analysis blog from @Nick F

Synoptic analysis: Turning colder later next week with an increasing risk of snow

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

---

A blog looking at how the current mild weather lasts into the first half of next week but then gets replaced by colder air later in the week, with an increasing risk of snow in places.

 

[Tim Bland]

ECM Still has some snow in the south next weekend …

[Derecho]

 northwestsnow MJO phase 7 isn't the best composite in our part of the world. Its signal is rather weak besides the ESB low and higher pressure over the Arctic. 

Phase 8 is what we want to see. The GFS this morning is hinting at it. EC 00z wasn't on board with the amplitude waning in phase 7.

[northwestsnow]

EC is very cold next weekend but it's building a big TPV where we don't want..

[That ECM]

 northwestsnow  most would take this run I would think.

[WYorksWeather]

Brief recap on today - looks like we just fell short of a date record. Netweather's own tracker shows 15C,  1.1C off the daily record. Not sure if any other sites show anything higher.

Looking at the short range, it looks like a very mild day tomorrow and Sunday across most of England, nearer normal elsewhere.

Monday looks cooler...

But then, Tuesday potentially looks like another possible record-breaker. 14C raw max, vs. a target of 16.1C.

Then, clearly showing the change to begin on Wednesday...

So, with that as an appetiser, the GFS 12z output looks quite interesting.

On the face of it, the cold looks like a blip - from around the 10th-14th in London, maybe somewhat more prolonged to around 7th-14th in Northern England.

The key, though, is the distribution. Though the mean is near normal from mid-month on, it hides an enormous amount of variation. There are plenty of options that prolong the cold, and plenty that try to turn things milder very quickly.

The mean is now down to around -6C/-7C, so probably good enough for many of us to see any precip falling as snow. The key will now be the warm sectors within any low pressure systems. Ideally we'd want the cold to be a bit deeper than that, down to around -10C at 850hPa, just to guarantee that snow will accumulate right down to sea level, even with slightly warmer air embedded in any lows. Of course, we just have to see what ends up happening.

In terms of timing, the SSTs are still dropping in the North Atlantic for now. I don't think we can start to call time on winter until the annual reversal begins.

An easterly or northerly towards the end looks good - SSTs way down now and at T+360. There wouldn't be much moderation there.

You can see it more clearly on the anomaly view.

Of course, the flipside remains that anything south-westerly in origin will have a continued tendency to be exceptionally mild, given the large area of above average temperatures near the Azores. We've already seen this a few times.

Overall, probably a tendency I think for wild temperature swings for the rest of February. Further northerly or easterly outbreaks are likely to be quite cold, but equally a return to south-westerlies at any point will continue exceptionally mild. All depends on what we end up getting.

I'll be back for the ECM later.

[northwestsnow]

Infact  days 8,9 and 10 are very cold.

[TURNED OUT NICE AGAIN]

 northwestsnow we lose the Iberian High and then the PV migrates back to its natural home....you couldn't make it up

[IDO]

It looks like EC was wrong with its previous runs and now moving to the GEM solution, as GFS has:

 

12z versus 0z. The ridge splits the flow of LP systems on the jet.

So EC is messy by D10 with a cold UK high within the trough:

It seems unlikely, but who knows? The models are struggling. Though maybe that mini-ridge is more likely now than yesterday?

[Harsh Climate]

Ecm looks decent to me :

*locked in cold

*hint of an easterly to the far south

*Azores high no where to be seen

Not bad at all!

Edited February 2 by Harsh Climate

[Derecho]

Decent output tonight. Though I'd like the MJO to go into phase 8, phase 7 isn't the be all end all. That phase is just less significant for our part of the world and others drivers come into play.

It's a very messy picture next week but we seem to be creeping towards a snowy situation with unremarkable synoptics instead of a huge block with loads of cold nearby.

I'm therefore quite relaxed about what happens next week, though as others have mentioned these events seem to trend south as time gets nearer. My journey north from Nottingham on Thursday might be an interesting one.

[LRD]

MOGREPS 12z - good for the north

Meh for the south

And something in the middle for the middle of England

Pretty much the same kind of picture UKMO 12z is showing

Unconvincing and the Met Office mid and long term outlook seems to be diluting cold. But chances for cold still there for the south from about Day 8 (I know, I know) onwards

 

Edited February 2 by LRD

[blizzard81]

It all looks very wishy washy to me. Lame and limp. There's been no appetite from the models today to home in on a semi-decent cold spell, let alone a decent one. All very underwhelming in my eyes. Too much energy in the atlantic and systems not tracking southerly enough. That's the biggest problem here. Also, remember a couple of days ago when quite a few of the model runs were gunning for that all important Icelandic wedge? It's nowhere to be seen now as we hone into the reliable. This is why we are now seeing the downgrades. Whether some want to admit that or not. 

[LRD]

 blizzard81 Got to agree. EC46 might show something in an hour but it's all very shrug-the-shoulders for me. The last 10 years of largely nothing winters has made me a cynic obviously!

[northwestsnow]

MOGREPS look very good manchester ,better than I expected 

[Stuie]

So for my local in West Dorset (South) next week, looks like there isn`t enough cold in place when the precipitation comes in. Yep, that same old Winter theme.