Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Lukesluckybunch]

Ecm not as good as ukmo at 144..but still takes the build of heights further west

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Shenanigans.  GFS earlier was on Diazepam.  We now see the creep/shift back to the ‘anticipated’ scenario.  Stick with it, don’t take each run as gospel…no matter what it shows.  Watch the 24hr run for run, for me winter is still returning 

 

BFTP

[daz_4]

I don't get the excitement. GEFS show no winter for at least next ten days, probably more. Even here in Central Europe there is nothing of note in the models apart from the good, old potential at 380 hours. What am I missing?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 daz_4 you are ‘expecting’ a now scenario.  It isn’t now….10-14 for cold set up to develop….last 1/3rd of Feb into early March….I think ‘potential’ wallop.  Of cse North UK in for ‘early fun’

 

BFTP

Edited February 7 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Ice Day]

ECM at 192, a continuation of this afternoons theme

[Jason M]

From looking at the GEFS there is actually a pretty good chance that we will have an almost identical repeat performance of this week in two weeks time 

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

192, a continuation of this afternoons theme

Yea not bad a bit too much energy to the northwest!the better trends continue though

[Ice Day]

ECM / GEM /GFS at 216

    

ECM lagging a bit, but it's on its way

Edited February 7 by Ice Day

[Lukesluckybunch]

4 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

lagging a bit, but it's on its way

The low to the southwest has given up it can't give anymore..hp taking over!the centre of the high would be better further northwest..but it's just the start of decent signs!

Edited February 7 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[KTtom]

On the face of it not a bad 216 chart. Hard to see where the colder uppers are comming from though..even if this comes off as shown we're a fair way away from the uppers we need for somthing interesting as we head into the second half of Feb.

Edited February 7 by KTtom

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, KTtom said:

On the face of it not a bad 216 chart. Hard to see where the colder uppers are comming from though..even if this comes off as shown we're a fair way away from the uppers we need for somthing interesting as we head into the second half of Feb.

Totally agree still a big southerly influence at 216!

[MJB]

1 hour ago, Chesil View said:

Going from multiple runs of ultra mild soutwesterlies. To an easterly then a slowly retrogressing UK high.

 

Boring as I am, but a few on here were going for southerlies and saying METO have this wrong with their take on Easterlies, yes not a freeze up but get the HP in place first. It's a decent set of runs we have seen 

[LRD]

If only it was July

No quick route to 'proper' cold there. But it will be frosty I'd have thought (at least in England and Wales)

Edited February 7 by LRD

[Harsh Climate]

Cracking ECM 240H

Hard to get Excited over a 240h chart when we have had so so many this winter lead to nothing! Yes some background signals are supportive but I will believe it when it's down to T96 thanks. 

And to be honest this isn't even a holy grail chart we would be trying to reel in it's just a 'GREAT POTENTIAL' chart at the furthest reaches of FI . Guess we got to start somewhere .

[nick sussex]

It looks like only retrogression of the high and drop down of troughing to the east will be able to inject some decent cold uppers into Europe .

Sadly our limpet low does the damage earlier by blasting away most of the cold .

And mainland Europe can’t develop its own cold pooling at this time of the year under anticyclonic conditions .

So unless there’s some earlier changes to help hold that deeper cold at least to the ne then we’re effectively looking at the last third of February for any chance of something decent .

The swing doors at the last chance saloon are about to start swinging ! 

[Daniel*]

27 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Totally agree still a big southerly influence at 216!

Southeasterly a distinction there… 

[Stravaiger]

GEM's gotta be the pick of the bunch from this evening's deterministics.

At Day 10 (yes a long way off) that high over Scotland is only heading in one direction....northwest.

If it can get properly established up that way, cold uppers will eventually swing in down it's eastern flank and for southern UK, where pressure will be lower, Atlantic incursions might produce some interesting battleground events.

We can but hope, eh?

At the very least, some dry, settled weather with nightly frosts depending on where the stratocumulus ends up drifting.

[blizzard81]

 Harsh Climate Indeed mate. It started with the much improved ecm 06z control run this morning and that trend has continued across the main models this evening. We really needed this after the dire morning runs, especially gfs. We have something to build upon now

[Chris Smith]

 LRD Reminds me of charts from February 1975. Frosty nights and super-mild, sunny days - often 14-15c in the South East. I'd take that.

Edited February 7 by Chris Smith
Wrong year!

[LRD]

 Chris Smith Well, a bit before my time but I'd settle for a summer like 1975!

On another subject, EC46 has lifted the low anomaly north so it's more over us late Feb and into March - rather than to our south as per previous runs. So, although there is northern blocking it looks like we still might be susceptible to Atlantic conditions. Could go either way though

EDIT - the cold temp anomalies have now gone too. Looks more average

Edited February 7 by LRD

[Harsh Climate]

 blizzard81

Don't know If I've got the energy for another long chase hopefully the sight of snow tomorrow will get the fire burning again!

[joggs]

 Harsh Climate I get what you're saying to a point harsh but I'm not seeing it on that chart tbh. Big Azores high and nothing cold(interesting )of note. 

Dry,yes.

Potential,maybe. But that rarely gets us anywhere. Far too much traffic NW.

Edited February 7 by joggs

[MJB]

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters T192-T240:

Cluster 2 shows retrogression to Greenland from Scandi, maybe also cluster 1 to an extent.  Cluster 3 continues to inflate a large high to our NE.  Cluster 4 goes direct to Greenland and is the pick in this timeframe.  

T264+:

Clusters 2 and 5 probably the best with a decent block to the NW.  Cluster 1 could be OK with a tweak.  Cluster 3 the block looks weak and cluster 4 has the ridge through the UK still.  I had hoped these might be a little better than this, but potential remains.

[Mike Poole]

Zonal winds down to -5m/s on the mean now:

Reckon we probably need to see one of those bad boys plunging -20m/s or so, if a split like on GFS 12z is to verify.  

The SSW could still be a game changer, if we get a really favourable split, at the very least would take us into extra time, meaning that the exceptional synoptics needed to deliver in March, might actually be on the table for once…