Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Mike Poole]

 Rain All Night I agree with your suggestion of some promise the week after next.  Next week looks like a return to unsettled, but after that there is a signal for summer patterns to start to get established.

Just looking at the ECM clusters this morning, in the extended T264+ there is a really decent looking 20 member cluster 1:

The other two clusters are more mixed.  But I’ve also noticed the predominance of red borders recently - blocking to our east, and some blue borders (+NAO).  Very little of the -NAO or Atlantic ridge patterns which suggests that the high latitude blocking which has been apparent quite a bit since the SSW is losing traction now in favour of more favourable summer patterns, of which the broader Scandi block pattern (red border) holds the most potential, with the +NAO pattern (blue border) likely to deliver more of a NW/SE split favouring the SE, interspersed with unsettled spells.

We’re getting there!

[Pauski]

2 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

Just looking at the ECM clusters this morning, in the extended T264+ there is a really decent looking 20 member cluster 1:

The other two clusters are more mixed.  But I’ve also noticed the predominance of red borders recently - blocking to our east, and some blue borders (+NAO).  Very little of the -NAO or Atlantic ridge patterns which suggests that the high latitude blocking which has been apparent quite a bit since the SSW is losing traction now in favour of more favourable summer patterns, of which the broader Scandi block pattern (red border) holds the most potential, with the +NAO pattern (blue border) likely to deliver more of a NW/SE split favouring the SE, interspersed with unsettled spells.

We’re getting there!

Hopefully something in the style of summer 2010 is coming.

[Alderc 2.0]

 Pauski what distinctly average? 
 

Actually wasn’t Aug 2010 one of the dullest summer months on record? July wasn’t great either. 

Edited May 9 by Alderc 2.0

[raz.org.rain]

 Pauski Supposedly the analogues are suggesting some oddly contrasting summers. 2022 and 2012 are frequently suggested analogues thus far.

Back to the short term, and by the looks of things there's no real agreement on how long next week's low will last or where exactly it'll be placed. As I mentioned elsewhere, it doesn't seem like that long ago that people were writing off the first half of May due to poor outlooks in the ensembles!

[Pauski]

42 minutes ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

 Pauski what distinctly average? 
 

Actually wasn’t Aug 2010 one of the dullest summer months on record? July wasn’t great either. 

Edited 37 minutes ago by Alderc 2.0

Not in Finland,  in July we had hottest ever recorded tempperature 37,2(Liperi). 

[cheese]

 Alderc 2.0 summer 2010 was very hot in Finland, Russia etc. It was the summer when major wildfires broke out in Russia and Moscow was shrouded in smoke. Of course in Western Europe it was unremarkable.

2010 Russian wildfires - Wikipedia

EN.M.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

 

Edited May 9 by cheese

[Alderc 2.0]

 Pauski sorry didn’t look at your location, here it was a naff summer like all the other 2007-2012.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 raz.org.rain I hope this summer has loads of plumey scenarios, very much like we got in 2019 and last year.   @Frosty.loves plumes as do I.   

Back to the here and now and it looks like in 10 days time we look like on this chart having a northerly tracking jet stream.    

[Dancerwithwings]

14 minutes ago, cheese said:

Alderc 2.0 summer 2010 was very hot in Finland, Russia etc. It was the summer when major wildfires broke out in Russia and Moscow was shrouded in smoke. Of course in Western Europe it was unremarkable.

2010 Russian wildfires - Wikipedia

2024 if today’s anything to go by with, it’s a touch different

 

[WYorksWeather]

Once again a quick update on UKV to see where we're getting to temperature wise over the next few days.

First the 850hPa temperatures for the next 5 days (Fri-Tues):

A warm pattern continuing through to Sunday with some areas maintaining warmth into Monday afternoon on tonight's run. By Tuesday 850s are close to average in the south but still a bit above further north. Main change from yesterday is a revert back to a stronger build of heat on Sunday, with 850s up to 10-11C in the mid afternoon. The difference between 8-9C and 10-11C will affect how high surface temperatures can climb on Sunday, along with surface conditions. Probably still too early to be absolutely certain about this.

Next we can have a look at overnight lows from tomorrow morning through to Tuesday morning:

Overall very high minima throughout in most areas, perhaps exceptionally so across central areas in the early hours of Saturday, Sunday and Monday.

Finally, moving on to the main event - daytime maxima:

In general, a trend towards gradually increasing temperatures over the next few days - absolute maxima of 24C tomorrow, 25C on Saturday, and 26C on Sunday. Always the possibility that one or two spots will go fractionally higher, so I still wouldn't rule out 27C somewhere. Beyond that it looks like eastern areas may get another warm lunchtime and afternoon before rain pushes in. Even through to Tuesday though there is nothing overly cold showing - temperatures across most areas will be near or slightly above average.

 

 

[Alderc 2.0]

 WYorksWeather what the heck happens on Sunday for that strip from Bournemouth to north wales? 

[Mapantz]

 Alderc 2.0

A trough that may force some thundershowers to develop.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Looks like the cut off low won't be a feature anymore in 8-14 days time according to CPC NOAA and instead replaced by a Scandinavian ridge, I'd bank that to be honest.   

[ANYWEATHER]

After this weeks warmth, next weeks coolness will be stark…….

[Don]

2 hours ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

I hope this summer has loads of plumey scenarios, very much like we got in 2019 and last year. 

I don't, plumes are far too fierce these days! 

 

[Azazel]

 ANYWEATHER nah it’ll be back to reality!

[Sherry]

 ANYWEATHER average temps in London area, ukv still has 17/18 for London area, hardly cool 

[Alderc 2.0]

This mornings model out from both GFS and GEM was what I was fearing with the UK trough taking up a more permanent residence. GFS pretty much cold and unsettled for the rest of the month, how disappointing. 
 

GFS has 50-80mm of rain widely in the next two weeks, over 100mm in the hillier areas

Edited May 10 by Alderc 2.0

[Howie]

 Alderc 2.0 hopefully an outlier 

[ANYWEATHER]

 Sherry for most ,a Stark contrast in temperature,  with a good 10c, colder than this week, with more wind and rain in the mixture it will feel definitely chilly. But in any sunshine, given the time of year it will feel pleasant...☺

[Alderc 2.0]

 ANYWEATHER  if a model is predicting 12C in places in mid May it’s assuming there’s not much sunshine. That’s just coat weather….

ECM also keeps us unsettled although it’s not as bad as GFS although temps in low to mid teens until the end of the run. Extremely disappointing. 

Edited May 10 by Alderc 2.0

[MP-R]

 Scorcher I’m abroad at the moment but when I get back I’ll dig out my records off the main computer and post

[CoventryWeather]

Can't say next week looks terrible, Monday is poor, but the rest of the week looks like sunshine and showers - a typical breakdown of heat weather. Nothing to say washout at the moment. 

Models are still showing inconsistency at day 4/5 so no point looking further imo. The Hov-moller has been consistently saying the low is clearing by the 18/19th. Remember at the start of the month people were writing off the month due to poor ensembles, models seem to be favouring low pressure bias in recent weeks. 

Edited May 10 by CoventryWeather

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 CoventryWeather exactly and to add more balance I will post a link below.   

https://twitter.com/peacockreports/status/1788848805460189583?t=HUVYIoErR-3CxdMYsq6PBg&s=19

Edited May 10 by Addicks Fan 1981

[Howie]

The trough really wants to persist on the 06z so far....