Yorkshire and E England regional discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

[Empire Of Snow]

 The PIT I know but I don't think they're reflective of the situation. The cold uppers are overestimated imo. 

[Scott Ingham]

 Empire Of Snow I have to disagree here I think there’s a small chance of a covering above 200metrea Tuesday and a 5-10 quite widely on Thursday into Friday. It’s whether we keep hold of this and beyond the weekend rather than for 12-24hours atm but those hi res mods will soon be in range! Met seem pretty bullish on disruptive snowfall Thursday into the weekend on our parts

[The PIT]

All change Tuesday night into Wednesday morning now looks like rain and Thursday Snow perhaps a spell of freezing rain in places for the evening then a very slow warm up.

[Beverley Lass]

Looking a good chance for snow on Thursday going
by this chart.

 

[cheese]

The near-term output is horrible to be honest. Cold rain for most, maybe even freezing rain. Maybe snow for higher elevations. 

We've been mild and mostly dry for the past week which I don't mind. Cold and wet is most unwelcome. 

Edited February 5 by cheese

[mike57]

 Beverley Lass I think temperatures will be very marginal. Even a slight bit of elevation will make snow more likely. I suspect Holderness and Hull will not see snow, but more than happy to be proved wrong on the day. Higher Wolds and North York Moors will probably be a different story.

Yet again wind is the issue here today. 50+mph overnight gusts based on 49mph in Bridlington in the small hours. Forecast is more of the same, really fed up with windy weather.

[Mark Bayley]

GFS 6z having none of it though - snow turning quickly to rain. ECM and UKMO look better - in fact the later probably too far south for anything decent in my neck of the woods. I wouldn't bet on either solution yet! Either way, looks marginal away from higher ground, as per the weather warning. I'd probably be most confident if i lived on the western side of Sheffield / Chesterfield / West Yorkshire above 200m 

 

UK weather warnings - Met Office

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 

[Rexx]

Met Office have now issued a yellow warning for snow for Thursday. Anyone else think it's a bit weird that they are being so bullish when the temps are looking so marginal for snow?

[mike57]

 Rexx We are actually just outside the warning area, on the little nose of land that sticks into the North Sea, not sure if that was deliberate or just the 'quick lets put out a warning but dont check it' scenario. Forecast temps are just a bit too high for snow unless you have significant elevation. Sleet and some slushy stuff maybe. As I said up thread happy to be proved wrong. Other things to consider are dew points, which look to be close to ambient so limited evaporitive cooling, and ground temperature, which will discourage accumulation.

Edited February 5 by mike57

[Mark Bayley]

I think they don't want to get caught out. TBH i think Rotherham definitely looks marginal. For me in Roundhay, around 140m ASL, it looks dicey. I'd think places like Horsforth could do okay. Detail will change this far out, but i'd punt at leading edge snow for most, with settling snow above 200m (though perhaps temporary accumulations lower down), with decent accumulations as per the met office warning 

Edited February 5 by Mark Bayley

[Rexx]

 mike57 I know Bempton well. The in-laws have a caravan at Flamborough and we regularly make the walk up the coast. Spent a lot of time in the White Horse.

[joggs]

Sleety crap at my altitude for a while.

200 MTs plus should do ok.

[Hessle Owl]

Nothing worse then cold and wet just grim January 2021 springs to mind cold rain at 3c Cant see anything wintry here in coming week just cold rain and sleet even if does snow wont settle. Hopefully luck will change but cant see it anything juicy on the models is always 10 plus days away and waters down as get near time. 

[adrianh]

Looks like places with some elevation could do well on Thursday - marginal though as often is the case

[Empire Of Snow]

Still a lot to be resolved re Thursday. Some places will easily get around 20cm, that's 300-350m. The rest of us will find out in nowcasting conditions. For example, at my door and elevation a 5-8cm is possible, 2 miles away Harrogate centre might get a slushy fest of 1cm. 

 

[Tim A]

 Empire Of Snow  Agree , there could be some big falls if everything aligns.  We have an easterly wind which will enhance precipitation against the Eastern Pennines.     

Just need the front in the right place and it could be a classic, the finer details to nail down, but feel we have a bit of wriggle room being in a favourable upslope location to at least see some lying snow. 

Probably drizzling and 3c in the Vale of York as is normal in these situations. 

 

Edited February 5 by Tim A

[mike57]

Lunchtime bike ride today, yet again wind was the issue, managed 7.5 miles. Wind SW Force 6-8, gusting 9 on the exposed bits, ran out of time and energy. 10c should feel mild but the strength of wind made it feel cool. Cloudy, but no rain. Wind is the enemy of cyclists, and this winter seems to have had more than its share. We seem to be in another of those stuck patterns that have become more common in recent years.

[Wold Topper]

Had to pop to Costa-del-Filey this aft, blowing a hoolie, Filey bay with the brigg in the back ground, moody skies...

Edited February 5 by Wold Topper

[Cheese Rice]

The Met Office warning is pretty clear in that it'll be a mostly high ground affair. 

Quote

A band of rain, sleet, and increasingly snow, will push north on Thursday bringing up to 2cm snow at lower-levels, 2-5cm on ground above 200m, and perhaps as much as 10-20cm above 400m.

Looking at the high res models the front is over Yorkshire between 9am-3pm which isn't a particularly long window of opportunity. Plus its during the day, ideally it would had arrived at night. 

I think realistically we'll see sleety mix to low levels inland, cold rain for east Yorkshire. I'm expecting the snowline to be around 160m from past experience in these situations. 2-5cm sounds about right. I don't expect any lying snow below 160m but you never know. 

[MIKE LEVITT]

Bbc saying temps in hull next weekend and next week about 8 degrees.i dont call that cold.

[LeeSnowFan]

[The PIT]

The rainfall looks pretty intense so that should bring the snow down to lower levels. We keep the cold uppers til late in the day according to the GFS so at the moment it's looking good. Sadly a one day cold affair so blink and you missed it. Could also be flooding around from melt and further heavy rain overnight Thursday and heavy showers Friday.

[Cheese Rice]

UKV seems to have upgraded somewhat but still very much a high ground affair. 

[Cheese Rice]

Some decent totals for inland areas from the first front, really knife edge stuff for low ground could go either way.

 

[The PIT]

Interesting Met office going for the cold to push south again while GFS and ECM show milder air winning before turning slightly cooler. Noticed the latest UKV agrees with this idea so clearly the forecast was using older data.

Edited February 5 by The PIT