Moans, ramps and banter

[Summer8906]

2 hours ago, B87 said:

Could see something like this happening for the next 6 months...

I hope not! Is that based on the 1998 similarities?

It has to be said that May 1998 was warm and sunny, even hot at times, so even if we do go down the 1998 route we'd likely to not have to wait until August for the next decent month (though your June is dull and dry, which I suppose would seem good in comparison to the 11 months preceding it!)

This spell is already historic, do you not see a chance of the change of season disrupting the pattern?

It really would make 2024 by far the worst year for weather since before 1978. I think 1966 and 1968 were quite shocking, weren't they? (Perhaps worth looking at to see if either can beat the 9-month wet run).

(What are your feelings about long term? Is this a sign of the new norm for the UK climate?)

Edited March 26 by Summer8906

[In Absence of True Seasons]

I'm curious to see how the rainfall maps will play out for March. We were already above average after the first week so god knows what we are on now. 

[Josh Rubio]

What happened to the drier and warmer outlook a few were predicting at the end of March and into the start of April? Now it seems it’s the continuation of unsettled weather for the foreseeable. What went wrong? 

[cheese]

 Summer8906 People in the Nordic countries also say 'Europe' when referring to the continent. It's not a uniquely British thing. Most people from Sweden or Norway will have to travel by air or sea to get to the rest of Europe, so it seems more distant and far away. 

Anyway, at least most of Europe is currently unsettled right now and not just the UK. Madrid is looking uncharacteristically grim. Not many good holiday destinations to choose from right now!

 

Edited March 26 by cheese

[MP-R]

 cheese Just like how it was when I lived there.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Josh, models do have a tendency to over play settled weather, nearly always turns out more unsettled, short term forecasts for rain have been crap too, a lot wetter generally than predicted

[B87]

 Summer8906 My June had 50mm, which is wet for here.

I do think long term it will revert to normal conditions, but I can't see when this awful pattern will end. 

One or two dry months aren't going to cut it anymore, unless they have less than 10mm and average 27c+.

Ever since that abnormal 2007-2012 spell, and then August 2015, 2017, 2021, I have been unsure whether we can even get average sunshine summers or at least Augusts regularly anymore.

Edited March 26 by B87

[BlueHedgehog074]

For a time, today felt nice with some bright and at times, sunny, weather. Really felt quite April-esque. Admittedly it didn’t last as the heavens opened in the late afternoon and towards the evening (but even then, I expected it was going to rain by mid-afternoon), so weather’s been a little better today than expected. Just pretty rubbish tonight, though

Haven’t got the best of memories, but May and June in this part last year seemed bright and sunny for the most part. In fact, as a late-Spring and early Summer month, June 2023 was overall decent. 

[Sun Chaser]

9 hours ago, B87 said:

You have been in the SE during an extremely dull and wet period

What I mean is that the dullness has been extremely noticeable in the past few months but the wetness hasn't seemed especially extreme considering I'm used to a wetter SW climate. Of course it definitely has been but my perception has been skewed.

8 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

actually did witness a fabulous weather phenomena in Plymouth in 1996 

What phenomena? Did it snow? 

[Alderc 2.0]

The output from the models is now so bad it’s almost funny. The only saving grace I can take from it is that the swiftness of the low pressures moving through may limit any severe flooding potential. 
 

We just need to buckle up and grin and bare it for the next 10-15days (at least) 

[danm]

4 hours ago, B87 said:

The SE seems to be getting the worst conditions regularly now. I'll be happy when normality is resumed and the SE has the best of the weather.

 

Not sure what you mean here? The SE is typically the warmest, driest part of the country and only behind the south coast in terms of sunshine. Where have we had the worst of it regularly? Do you mean in terms of actual values or what we’ve been getting versus the climatic norm? Even if you’re just talking about the latter I don’t see how this is true on a “regular” basis. 
 

 

[B87]

 danm What we have been getting vs average. We seem to be getting all of the rainy spells vs further north.

It seems to have been the case pretty much since December.

Edited March 26 by B87

[danm]

 B87 do we? When I look at the anomaly maps going back over 10 years, I see a mixed bag. Some years we’re drier than average, some years wetter. Some years the NW is a little drier than their average than we have been vs our average and sometimes it’s vice versa. 

Always worth remembering that the NW’s rainfall totals can be double ours on average, so even a bit less than usual in actual values can translate into chunky percentage points below the average. 

I reckon if you told someone from Glasgow that they have had the “better” of the weather because they only had 1,100mm of rain instead of their usual nearly 1,300mm and we got 750mm of rain versus our usual 615mm they’d probably laugh in our face. 

Edited March 26 by danm

[Sun Chaser]

 Alderc 2.0 Praying for the second week of April because I'd quite like to have a dry birthday!

[Nick L]

Looking on course for yet another 100mm month around here. It's just relentless, it's extraordinary.

Anyone who insists our climate has not changed needs to look out of the window once in a while.

[WYorksWeather]

I think the key point with the model watching is there's a complete lack of anything interesting for almost any weather preference. There are probably three main groups, though some people overlap them - those looking for a late blast of winter, those looking for properly spring-like warmth, and those looking for other 'interesting' weather - e.g. thunderstorms or even windstorms.

The problem with the current pattern is it just sucks the interest out of the model watching. Even severely unsettled weather is at least interesting, even if not useable. But all the models are offering is continued moderately unsettled weather, daytime temperatures slightly above average, night-time well above average, moderate wind and plenty of rain, with an odd drier day or two. There's just nothing to get excited about.

Personally, I'm probably mainly in the warm and settled weather camp, but equally I'd take cold and clear or even snowy (highly unlikely) or something to at least get somewhat interested in tracking, like a full-on named storm (though of course don't wish anyone harm from it).

The British weather always changes eventually - we just need something to force a pattern change. Maybe for once a rapidly collapsing El Nino might actually do the job.

[Nick L]

 WYorksWeather Absolutely. At least the disgusting winter of 13/14 was interesting in how stormy it was.

[cheese]

 Nick L at this point I don’t care about how interesting the weather is, I’m just sick of the rain. I will gladly take a big fat anticyclone with North Sea murk over the current pattern. 

Edited March 27 by cheese

[SunnyG]

 Alderc 2.0 I ain't baring anything, not until we hit 20c at least

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 WYorksWeather Yeah it's the main issue why everyone is peeved. 

This sort of pattern provides nothing to anyone, regardless of your preference. 

Unless you genuinely like continued cloud and rain (that's very ,very few people lol), or you identity as a duck or lump of moss, this weather is just the pits.

Not only is it lacking in usable conditions for the majority of the time, it's just all-round uninteresting! As you say, if we had some crazy March snowstorm, whilst it wouldn't exactly be "usable" conditions, it'd be unusual and cool to witness.

My personal feeling is that unfortunately CC is going to facilitate this sort of pattern as being the dominant one during the Oct to April period of the year. Mild and wet Autumns, mild, wet and dull winters, and mild, wet early Springs (more or less mirroring Oct / Nov).

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 cheese A real kick in the teeth for anyone who's booked a holiday in Southern Europe over Easter. Having to endure months upon months of dull and wet weather in Britain only to go to Spain / South of France etc and be met with the same.  

[Summer8906]

 B87 Ah ok, 50mm actually sounds dry compared to the recent months!

I know what you mean about most contemporary summers: cloudy and changeable is the new norm, broken by short heat spikes. (Hot and sunny is definitely not the new norm, one hot and sunny summer every four years does not make it the normal!)

So I don't anticipate a hot and sunny summer. I do think that these endless abnormal synoptics will end in the next month or so though - surely the change of season will likely trigger something, and remember spring is generally the time when blocking is the most strong, which might shut the Atlantic up for a few weeks at least.

I'm not going for a classic summer, I'm going for a "normal for past few years" summer but before that arrives I do think we'll have a drier interlude in late spring (May in particular). As for summer I'm going for poor June (because of the 1998 similarity), dry but cloudy July and changeable but not appallingly bad August.

Also the end of El Nino might presumably cause some kind of change.

If these synoptics do not change soon then something seriously worrying has happened and one wonders whether some kind of climate change "switch" has been pulled. It would also raise serious questions about the viability of large tracts of lowland UK too, particularly to the southwest. Do you think we could be in this for the long haul (several years)?

Edited March 27 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

 Nick L An interesting point. The one thing the weather recently hasn't been is overly stormy. I'm not really a fan of stormy weather but the typical 2024 synoptics don't provide any interest even for stormy weather fans. We had quite a few named storms in autumn and early winter but it didn't seem continuously stormy like other winters did.

It's just endless southerly tracking deep, but not tightly-isobared, lows producing long runs of stagnant or mildly breezy dull wet SW-lies and endless pervading damp.

Edited March 27 by Summer8906

[ANYWEATHER]

 In Absence of True Seasons indeed. The thing is ,this weather is not that out of place for the UK, for this time of year, it's quite normal. But ,the  persistents , of the unsettled conditions and Longevity  of this weather is quite unusual,  not saying it's unprecedented but certainly will go down as the most long lived unsettled conditions for many decades...even southern Europe as you mentioned is very similar to our weather. Feel sorry for the folks who spent a small fortune to go to Spain and the Canaries to see some sun and ended up with just what they left here in the UK. ....

[Summer8906]

 ANYWEATHER That's the thing, it's the persistence.

Yes, we've had poor weather in April (1983, 1998, 2000 and 2012) but none of those came off the back of persistent unsettled weather since June 26th the previous year.